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Volume 16
Issue 9
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J. Risk Financial Manag., Volume 16, Issue 9 (September 2023) – 39 articles

Cover Story (view full-size image): This study examines the relationship of religion-based ethics, specifically Judeo-Christian ethicality, in a country (measured by Judeo-Christian presence as a proportion of the population) to economic and social factors. Modern business firms, in efforts to embrace diversity, accommodate cultural factors such as religiosity, particularly so in multinational operations where diverse religions will be encountered. The findings show that Judeo-Christian ethicality has a positive relationship to factors connected to a society’s sustainable business culture—that is, more economic freedom, higher economic activity, improved gender equality, better social progress, and lower corruption. View this paper
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15 pages, 363 KiB  
Article
Does Fiscal Consolidation Affect Non-Performing Loans? Global Evidence from Heavily Indebted Countries (HICs)
by Habib Ur Rahman, Adam Arian and John Sands
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 417; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090417 - 19 Sep 2023
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1840
Abstract
This study explores fiscal consolidations’ impact on non-performing loans (NPLs) in highly indebted countries (HICs) following the global financial crisis (GFC) and subsequent sovereign debt crisis. A dynamic panel data estimator was applied to obtain the unbiased estimator due to NPLs’ time persistence. [...] Read more.
This study explores fiscal consolidations’ impact on non-performing loans (NPLs) in highly indebted countries (HICs) following the global financial crisis (GFC) and subsequent sovereign debt crisis. A dynamic panel data estimator was applied to obtain the unbiased estimator due to NPLs’ time persistence. The findings reveal that fiscal consolidation measures increase NPLs since they limit the household and business loan-serving capacity. Extended analysis categorises fiscal consolidation episodes into (1) the fiscal consolidation weak form (FCWE) and (2) the fiscal consolidation strong form (FCSE). The extended analysis results reveal that the FCWE and FCSE improve NPLs by 1.55% and 31.10%, respectively. The weak-to-strong form transition of the fiscal consolidation analysis resulted in improving NPLs by 28.55 percentage points. NPL definition challenges, the potential influence of loan restructuring and regulatory restrictions, and implications for policymakers and financial institutions in managing NPLs in highly indebted economies were explored. Investigating the potentially different effects of both forms of fiscal consolidation (FCWE and FCSE) on NPLs in countries with different definitions of NPLs, including a comparison study between different definitions, was identified as an implication for future research. Finally, future studies should examine how restrictions on IFRS 9 may affect the FCWE and NPL as well as FCSE and NPL associations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Featured Papers in Mathematics and Finance)
19 pages, 3207 KiB  
Review
Research on Price Discovery in Financial Securities: Trends and Directions for Future Research
by Prashant Sharma, Gaurav Agrawal, Geetika Arora, Dinesh Kumar Sharma and Varun Chotia
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 416; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090416 - 19 Sep 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2260
Abstract
The futures contracts were introduced to act as hedging instruments and ensure the price discovery (referred to as PD hereafter) mechanism for the underlying securities. If the price movement of a futures contract leads the price movement of the underlying securities in the [...] Read more.
The futures contracts were introduced to act as hedging instruments and ensure the price discovery (referred to as PD hereafter) mechanism for the underlying securities. If the price movement of a futures contract leads the price movement of the underlying securities in the spot market, this confirms the existence of price discovery in the market. This study undertakes an in-depth analysis of past research in order to find research trends and directions for the future in the field of price discovery. The bibliometric analysis technique is used to analyse the existing literature. The study considers the 1431 documents collected from the Scopus database for the period of 1982–2021 to conduct the descriptive and network analysis of search results. The study identifies three key clusters, i.e., the foundation of the price discovery process (Cluster 1), the econometric tools and techniques to assess the price discovery process (Cluster 2), and price discovery under different market conditions and constraints (Cluster 3). After an in-depth content analysis of these clusters, the study provides suggestions for future research in the field of price discovery. The study is the first of its type to conduct an in-depth analysis of the literature of price discovery since inception, and provides directions for future research in the field. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Fintech, Business, and Development)
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26 pages, 1216 KiB  
Article
Market Liquidity Estimation in a High-Frequency Setup
by Kujtim Avdiu
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 415; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090415 - 19 Sep 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1187
Abstract
This article deals with the identification of a superior forecasting method for market liquidity using a calibrated Heston model for the bid/ask price path simulation instead of a standard Brownian motion, as well as a compound Poisson process and inverse transform sampling for [...] Read more.
This article deals with the identification of a superior forecasting method for market liquidity using a calibrated Heston model for the bid/ask price path simulation instead of a standard Brownian motion, as well as a compound Poisson process and inverse transform sampling for the generation of the bid/ask volume distribution. We show that the simulated trading volumes converge to one single value, which can be used as a liquidity estimator, and find that the calibrated Heston model as well as the inverse transform sampling are superior to both the use of standard Brownian motion and compound Poisson process. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Financial Decisions Modeling and Analytics)
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13 pages, 712 KiB  
Article
How Does Market Cap Play Its Role in Returns during COVID-19? The Case of Norway
by Minh Thi Hong Dinh
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 414; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090414 - 19 Sep 2023
Viewed by 1873
Abstract
This research investigates the role of the large, medium, and small market cap portfolios in returns during the COVID-19 pandemic, around the ‘lockdown’ policy in March 2020 based on the Norwegian market. The main results suggest that during the event window, the medium [...] Read more.
This research investigates the role of the large, medium, and small market cap portfolios in returns during the COVID-19 pandemic, around the ‘lockdown’ policy in March 2020 based on the Norwegian market. The main results suggest that during the event window, the medium and small portfolios are impacted more negatively than the large. During the before-event days, the large portfolio is slightly negatively affected, but it tends to be better after the event. The medium and small portfolios are not adversely affected during before the event, but they are considerably negatively affected after the event. The small portfolio is affected more severely negatively than the medium. The small portfolio is the most volatile of the three during the event window. In addition, there are opportunities to earn extremely positive abnormal returns (from 2.5%) after the event by holding the small and medium portfolios, but not for the large. It seems that more opportunities to earn extremely positive abnormal returns for the small portfolio than the medium. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Emerging Issues in Economics, Finance and Business)
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17 pages, 319 KiB  
Article
Does Financial Technology Adoption Influence Bank’s Financial Performance: The Case of Jordan
by Thair A. Kaddumi, Hafez Baker, Mahmoud Daoud Nassar and Qais A-Kilani
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 413; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090413 - 18 Sep 2023
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3973
Abstract
This research will examine the impact of the adoption of financial technology on conventional banks’ financial performances. The research will place emphasis on the listed commercial banks at Amman Stock Exchange—ASE, using financial data for the period 2012–2020. The main study tool was [...] Read more.
This research will examine the impact of the adoption of financial technology on conventional banks’ financial performances. The research will place emphasis on the listed commercial banks at Amman Stock Exchange—ASE, using financial data for the period 2012–2020. The main study tool was a questionnaire that focuses on three main dimensions: financial inclusion—(FI), alternative payment methods—(APMs) and automation—(Auto). A total of 115 questionnaires were distributed to all commercial banks listed at Amman Stock Exchange—ASE. Multivariate regression analysis was employed to test the impact of the FinTech dimension as a proxy for independent variables on Jordanian commercial bank’s financial performance as a proxy for dependent variables. Based on the analysis results, the study concludes that all three FinTech dimensions: FI, APMs and Auto. reflected a positive significant impact on Jordanian commercial bank’s financial performance indicators (total deposit, total loans and net profit margin). Therefore, banks in general should invest more and more into financial technology tools and applications, in order to recruit potential clients and retain their current clients, to be able to sustain under fierce competition within the banking sector. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Banking during the COVID-19 Pandemia)
14 pages, 311 KiB  
Article
The Dynamic Dependency between a Cryptocurrency ETF and ETFs Representing Conventional Asset Classes
by Marcos Velazquez, Alper Gormus and Nima Vafai
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 412; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090412 - 15 Sep 2023
Viewed by 2367
Abstract
Using daily closing price observations between November 2017 and February 2023, this paper documents how the shocks of a cryptocurrency ETF resonate with ETFs representing traditional asset classes in terms of price and volatility. We find price transmission from the cryptocurrency ETF into [...] Read more.
Using daily closing price observations between November 2017 and February 2023, this paper documents how the shocks of a cryptocurrency ETF resonate with ETFs representing traditional asset classes in terms of price and volatility. We find price transmission from the cryptocurrency ETF into the ETFs of several currencies, small-cap equities, and inflation. Risk propagation from the cryptocurrency ETF flows toward ETFs constituted of equities of various sizes, oil prices, high-yield corporate bonds, and inflation. There is scant evidence of transmission from ETFs with underlying conventional assets into the cryptocurrency ETF. The findings bear implications for low-cost risk management strategies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Innovations and Advances in Exchange-Traded Funds)
20 pages, 637 KiB  
Article
Enabling Private Investment in Affordable Housing in Nigeria: Lessons from the Experience of the Millard Fuller Foundation Projects in Nasarawa State
by Lilian Nwachukwu, Lucelia Rodrigues and Lorna Kiamba
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 411; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090411 - 14 Sep 2023
Viewed by 2100
Abstract
Despite the shift to private sector-driven affordable housing in Nigeria for decades, the housing deficit has continued to increase to the disadvantage of low-income families. This paper explores the enabling strategies for stimulating private-driven affordable housing in Nigeria. A case study of the [...] Read more.
Despite the shift to private sector-driven affordable housing in Nigeria for decades, the housing deficit has continued to increase to the disadvantage of low-income families. This paper explores the enabling strategies for stimulating private-driven affordable housing in Nigeria. A case study of the Millard Fuller Foundation projects was undertaken, and semi-structured interviews were administered to 12 residents of the estates and the developer to explore their experience and highlight the considerations for designing appropriate strategies. The data generated were analysed using thematic analysis with the support of Nvivo. This study identifies four major components of construction costs—land, design, materials, and finance—that policy improvement can target to stimulate private investment. It shows that developers are likely to adopt practices that will reduce these costs with repercussions for end-users. Mindful of this, and the concern to make returns on investment, strategies should aim to harmonise both developers’ interest and that of the end-users through widespread infrastructural development to make land available in all locations, and an incremental owner-building approach so that end-users can take decisions for their housing. Furthermore, access to National Housing Fund (NHF) mortgages should be enhanced by recognising supplementary incomes in the loan origination procedures. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Shocks, Public Policies and Housing Markets)
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11 pages, 1476 KiB  
Article
Why the High Values for the CAPE Ratio in Recent Years Might Be Justified
by Leo H. Chan
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 410; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090410 - 14 Sep 2023
Viewed by 5426
Abstract
In this paper, I propose a tracking error approach using the P/E ratio equation to approximate the CAPE Ratio. After accounting for the recent structural changes in the composition and valuation of the S&P 500 index, along with a persistently low interest rate [...] Read more.
In this paper, I propose a tracking error approach using the P/E ratio equation to approximate the CAPE Ratio. After accounting for the recent structural changes in the composition and valuation of the S&P 500 index, along with a persistently low interest rate environment over the last three decades, I show that the average CAPE Ratio had increases over time. Relying solely on historical CAPE averages to forecast equity returns may therefore prove unreliable. The findings in this paper indicate that investors should incorporate multiple factors, including required return and expected earnings growth, when forming capital allocation decisions across asset classes. Rotating out of the equity market simply because the CAPE Ratio shows that the equity market is too expensive might not produce the desire outcome investors hope for. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Financial Assets as Profit-Makers in Inflationary Periods)
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14 pages, 276 KiB  
Article
The Effect of Employee Involvement in Strategic Change on the Performance of Insurance Companies in Zimbabwe
by Bibi Zaheenah Chummun and Lizanani Nleya
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 409; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090409 - 13 Sep 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1848
Abstract
Due to rapid technological advancements and intense competition, organizations must find new ways to do business. As a result, changes in an organization’s structures, systems, and strategies are now a pre-requisite to survive the competition. Involving employees in strategic change programmes will harness [...] Read more.
Due to rapid technological advancements and intense competition, organizations must find new ways to do business. As a result, changes in an organization’s structures, systems, and strategies are now a pre-requisite to survive the competition. Involving employees in strategic change programmes will harness ideas that enhance competitive advantage and organizational performance. The purpose of this study is to inform industry executives, especially in insurance companies, that employees are crucial resources that must be valued for their contribution to the survival of the organization. A total of 115 respondents were surveyed using a 5-point Likert scale questionnaire in a quantitative research approach. This study employed the multiple regression method to test the effect of five employee involvement constructs on organizational performance using IBM SPSS V28 software. All five constructs, that is, participation in decision-making, teamwork, communication, creativity, and innovation, significantly affected the performance of insurance companies in Zimbabwe. This study’s findings will convince top managerial leaders of the insurance industry to acknowledge and appreciate the importance of involving employees in strategic change programmes. Furthermore, industry regulatory authorities can promote policies and practices that involve employees in decision-making. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis for Corporate Finance II)
20 pages, 452 KiB  
Article
Change Point Analysis of Time Series Related to Bitcoin Transactions: Towards the Detection of Illegal Activities
by Ourania Theodosiadou, Alexandros-Michail Koufakis, Theodora Tsikrika, Stefanos Vrochidis and Ioannis Kompatsiaris
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 408; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090408 - 13 Sep 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1633
Abstract
This paper proposes a unified framework for the detection of statistically significant changes in time series related to Bitcoin transactions. The time locations of these changes are linked to the occurrences of events which could be further investigated aiming to reveal potential illicit [...] Read more.
This paper proposes a unified framework for the detection of statistically significant changes in time series related to Bitcoin transactions. The time locations of these changes are linked to the occurrences of events which could be further investigated aiming to reveal potential illicit activity. The proposed framework includes: (a) the extraction of 28 features of interest in the form of time series from the Bitcoin transaction history; (b) the selection of features among the extracted ones based on the Partition Around Medoids clustering approach; and (c) the change point analysis of the multivariate time series which is formulated by the medoid time series of each cluster. This analysis enables the identification of structural breaks in the underlying behavior of the time series of interest at certain time points. The proposed framework is applied on the Bitcoin transactions of two entities that have been involved in illicit activities, namely Pirate@40, who orchestrated a high-yield investment programme, and the MintPal Bitcoin exchange platform that was hacked. The analysis results indicate that the estimated change points can be linked to certain event occurrences which may affect the transaction activity and could be further investigated for potential links to illicit actions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue FinTech, Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies)
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22 pages, 3315 KiB  
Article
The Perceived Relationship between Risk Culture and Operational Risk Management Practices of Ghanaian Banks
by Gerhard Philip Maree Grebe and Johan Marx
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 407; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090407 - 12 Sep 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2438
Abstract
The Bank of Ghana (BoG) joined the Basel Consultative Group (BCG) of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) in 2021 and is proceeding with the implementation of the Basel III international regulatory framework for Ghanaian banks. The purpose of this study was [...] Read more.
The Bank of Ghana (BoG) joined the Basel Consultative Group (BCG) of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) in 2021 and is proceeding with the implementation of the Basel III international regulatory framework for Ghanaian banks. The purpose of this study was to assess the perceived relationship between risk culture and aspects of operational risk management among Ghanaian banks. This study followed a positivist paradigm and made use of a survey among the risk management staff members of Ghanaian banks. The data were analysed using both descriptive and inferential statistics, such as the Mann–Whitney U test and a multiple regression model. This study found significant perceived relationships (at the 5% level of significance) between risk culture and monitoring and reporting procedures, the three lines of defence (3LOD), compliance, internal auditing, disclosure of operational risk information, and guidance from the banking regulator. The respondents reported the following challenges with their banks’ risk culture (in order of priority): training and development, communication, reporting and disclosure, roles and responsibilities, performance appraisal, and technological and environmental barriers. Recommendations for addressing these challenges are provided. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central Banking and Financial Stability)
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14 pages, 2660 KiB  
Article
Credit Risk Determinants in Selected Ethiopian Commercial Banks: A Panel Data Analysis
by Seid Muhammed, Goshu Desalegn, Maria Fekete-Farkas and Emese Bruder
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 406; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090406 - 11 Sep 2023
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 6071
Abstract
The study aims to investigate the factors that contribute to credit risk in Ethiopian commercial banks, considering both macroeconomic and bank-specific factors. The research utilized multiple regression models, a quantitative research approach, and explanatory research designs. A purposive sample technique was used to [...] Read more.
The study aims to investigate the factors that contribute to credit risk in Ethiopian commercial banks, considering both macroeconomic and bank-specific factors. The research utilized multiple regression models, a quantitative research approach, and explanatory research designs. A purposive sample technique was used to select 10 commercial banks for the study, and secondary data from audited financial reports were analyzed. The findings of the study reveal a significant positive relationship between credit risk and several variables, including bank size, profitability, efficiency, capital adequacy, and inflation. Conversely, there is an inverse relationship between credit risk and both loan growth and currency rates. Surprisingly, the study found that neither GDP nor interest rates have a significant impact on credit risk. Based on these findings, the study provides recommendations for Ethiopian commercial banks. It suggests maintaining adequate levels of capital, avoiding business in sectors influenced by inflationary pressures, carefully evaluating non-interest income, and adjusting lending policies as necessary. Furthermore, the study advises periodically examining the relationships between GDP growth, interest rates, and credit risk. It also emphasizes the importance of adapting credit risk management practices to changing market conditions and staying vigilant toward emerging trends. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis for Corporate Finance II)
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14 pages, 564 KiB  
Article
Circular-Statistics-Based Estimators and Tests for the Index Parameter α of Distributions for High-Volatility Financial Markets
by Ashis SenGupta and Moumita Roy
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 405; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090405 - 11 Sep 2023
Viewed by 1494
Abstract
The distributions for highly volatile financial time-series data are playing an increasingly important role in current financial scenarios and signal analyses. An important characteristic of such a probability distribution is its tail behaviour, determined through its tail thickness. This can be achieved by [...] Read more.
The distributions for highly volatile financial time-series data are playing an increasingly important role in current financial scenarios and signal analyses. An important characteristic of such a probability distribution is its tail behaviour, determined through its tail thickness. This can be achieved by estimating the index parameter of the corresponding distribution. The normal and Cauchy distributions, and, sometimes, a mixture of the normal and Cauchy distributions, are suitable for modelling such financial data. The family of stable distributions can provide better modelling for such financial data sets. Financial data in high-volatility markets may be better modelled, in many cases, by the Linnik distribution in comparison to the stable distribution. This highly flexible family of distributions is better capable of modelling the inflection points and tail behaviour compared to the other existing models. The estimation of the tail thickness of heavy-tailed financial data is important in the context of modelling. However, the new probability distributions do not admit any closed analytical form of representation. Thus, novel methods need to be developed, as only a few can be found in the literature. Here, we recall a recent novel method, developed by the authors, based on a trigonometric moment estimator using circular distributions. The linear data may be transformed to yield circular data. This transformation is solely for yielding a suitable estimator. Our aim in this paper is to provide a review of the few existing methods, discuss some of their drawbacks, and also provide a universal (∀α∈(0,2]), efficient, and easily implementable estimator of α based on the transformation mentioned above. Novel, circular-statistics-based tests for the index parameter α of the stable and Linnik distributions are introduced and also exemplified with real-life financial data. Two real-life data sets are analysed to exemplify the methods recommended and enhanced by the authors. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Financial Data Analytics and Statistical Learning)
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12 pages, 1058 KiB  
Article
Measuring Value in Development with Advanced Real Options for International Sequential Acquisitions
by Andrejs Čirjevskis
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 404; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090404 - 11 Sep 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1235
Abstract
Even though the application of real options theory in international business research has increased substantially, the measurement of collaborative synergies in international sequential acquisition by means of advanced real options is still the theoreticall gap which needs to be filled by new research [...] Read more.
Even though the application of real options theory in international business research has increased substantially, the measurement of collaborative synergies in international sequential acquisition by means of advanced real options is still the theoreticall gap which needs to be filled by new research and promising area for empirical research. This paper moves the field forward and highlights the fact that strategic synergies can be considered as compound real options for growth that are opened by an international sequential acquisition and, thus, add market value to the acquirer. Our research is presented as a theory-building inductive case-based study. This paper aims to integrate sequential compound real options with real options that have changing volatility in order to evaluate collaborative tacit synergies (a value in development) of sequential international acquisitions; thus, it contributes to corporate finance, international business, and strategic management theory with a fresh evaluation of the applications of advanced real options. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in International Management Research)
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29 pages, 876 KiB  
Article
Determinants of Repurchase Size: Evidence from the UK
by Adhiraj Sodhi, Cesario Mateus, Irina Mateus and Aleksandar Stojanovic
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 403; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090403 - 7 Sep 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1528
Abstract
The paper focuses on the factors that determine the size of an open market share repurchase in the UK. The testing covers the time period 1985–2014 and tests if the traditional motives for repurchasing shares also determine the size of the repurchase. The [...] Read more.
The paper focuses on the factors that determine the size of an open market share repurchase in the UK. The testing covers the time period 1985–2014 and tests if the traditional motives for repurchasing shares also determine the size of the repurchase. The testing also checks if the influences of these determinants are non-linear, U-shaped or inverted U-shaped, which, to the best of our knowledge, is also a novel empirical approach. The consideration of non-linear influences on repurchase size is relevant due to the overlapping of repurchase determinants. For instance, if the distribution of excess cash is the motive for undertaking the repurchase and not replacing dividend distribution, then the influence of dividend distribution on repurchase size may conflict with the traditional expectation of repurchases being used as dividend replacements. The testing finds that the motive of using repurchases for signalling stock undervaluation has the most consistent influence on repurchase size, followed by the motives of adjusting the reported EPS when earnings are negative and for distributing surplus cash. The motive for using repurchases to adjust the capital structure to increase the debt exposure has a U-shaped influence on repurchase size, while board independence has an inverted U-shaped influence. Overall, when compared to the current literature, this paper is able to demonstrate that there is a strong consistency between the motives that lead to repurchases in the UK, and the determinants of repurchase size. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Financial Markets)
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19 pages, 3163 KiB  
Article
Measurement and Calibration of Regulatory Credit Risk Asset Correlations
by Anton van Dyk and Gary van Vuuren
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 402; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090402 - 7 Sep 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2401
Abstract
Vasicek’s asymptotic single risk factor (ASRF) model is employed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) in its internal ratings-based (IRB) approach for estimating credit losses and regulatory credit risk capital. This methodology requires estimates of asset correlations; these are prescribed by [...] Read more.
Vasicek’s asymptotic single risk factor (ASRF) model is employed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) in its internal ratings-based (IRB) approach for estimating credit losses and regulatory credit risk capital. This methodology requires estimates of asset correlations; these are prescribed by the BCBS. Practitioners are interested to know market-implied asset correlations since these influence economic capital and lending behavior. These may be backed out from ASRF loan loss distributions using ex post loan losses. Prescribed asset correlations have been neither updated nor recalibrated since their introduction in 2008 with the implementation of the Basel II accord. The market milieu has undergone significant alterations and adaptations since then; it is unlikely that these remain relevant. Loan loss data from a developed (US) and developing (South Africa) economy spanning at least two business cycles for each region were used to explore the relevance of the BCBS calibration. Results obtained from three alternative methodologies are compared with prescribed BCBS values, and the latter were found to be countercyclical to empirical loan loss experience, resulting in less punitive credit risk capital requirements than required in market crises and more punitive requirements than required in calm conditions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Banking and Finance)
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14 pages, 666 KiB  
Article
Implicit Hedging and Liquidity Costs of Structured Products
by Kujtim Avdiu and Stephan Unger
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 401; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090401 - 7 Sep 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1512
Abstract
This article analyzes the implicit hedging and liquidity costs of structured equity products offered by various financial institutions. We replicate several payoffs of structured products, compare the calculated fair values based on the Heston model as well as geometric Brownian motion, using various [...] Read more.
This article analyzes the implicit hedging and liquidity costs of structured equity products offered by various financial institutions. We replicate several payoffs of structured products, compare the calculated fair values based on the Heston model as well as geometric Brownian motion, using various optimization techniques, and compare their fair values with the historic prices traded in the market. We find that implicit hedging costs range between 0.9% and 2.9% markup on the fair value, where we find the underlying market volatility to be the relevant driver of this range for complex structures, while market liquidity can be extracted as the only driver of markups for simple structures with no hedging requirements. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Durable, Inclusive, Sustainable Economic Growth and Challenge)
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9 pages, 1005 KiB  
Article
A Private and Efficient Triple-Entry Accounting Protocol on Bitcoin
by Liuxuan Pan, Owen Vaughan and Craig Steven Wright
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 400; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090400 - 7 Sep 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1800
Abstract
The ‘Big Four’ accountancy firms dominate the auditing market, auditing almost all the Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) 100 companies. This leads to people having to accept auditing results even if they may be poor quality and/or for inadequate purposes. In addition, accountants [...] Read more.
The ‘Big Four’ accountancy firms dominate the auditing market, auditing almost all the Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) 100 companies. This leads to people having to accept auditing results even if they may be poor quality and/or for inadequate purposes. In addition, accountants may provide different auditing results with the same financial data. These issues are hard for regulators such as the Financial Reporting Council to identify because of insufficient resources or inconsistent compliance. In this paper, we proposed a triple-entry accounting protocol to allow users to report Bitcoin transactions to a third-party auditor to comply with regulations such as the travel rule. It allows the auditor to easily detect anomalies and identify the non-compliant parties, whilst the blockchain itself provides a transparent and immutable record of these anomalies. Despite building on a public ledger, our solution preserves privacy and offers an interoperability layer for information exchange. Merkle proofs were used to record non-compliant transactions whilst allowing compliant transactions to be pruned from an auditor’s active database. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Triple Entry Accounting)
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23 pages, 385 KiB  
Article
Production Efficiency and Income Distribution with Competition Induced by Antitrust Measures
by Peter Josef Stauvermann and Ronald Ravinesh Kumar
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 399; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090399 - 6 Sep 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1424
Abstract
We use a three-sector overlapping generations model to examine the efficiency characteristics and income distribution in the long-run steady-state equilibrium. Assuming two sectors produce intermediate goods within an oligopolistic competition, we explore the implications for production efficiency and income distribution, given an increase [...] Read more.
We use a three-sector overlapping generations model to examine the efficiency characteristics and income distribution in the long-run steady-state equilibrium. Assuming two sectors produce intermediate goods within an oligopolistic competition, we explore the implications for production efficiency and income distribution, given an increase in competition induced by antitrust measures. Our analysis presents the possibility of steady-state welfare under imperfect competition surpassing that of perfect competition when declining competition leads to a redistribution of income from older to younger generations. Nevertheless, greater competition (within oligopoly competition) consistently results in a more equitable income distribution. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Global Trends and Challenges in Economics and Finance)
17 pages, 1372 KiB  
Article
Tax Shields, the Weighted Average Cost of Capital, and the Appropriate Discount Rate for a Project with a Finite Useful Life
by Morris G. Danielson
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 398; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090398 - 6 Sep 2023
Viewed by 3394
Abstract
The standard formulas for calculating the value of a firm’s tax shield and its weighted average cost of capital (WACC) use the assumption that the underlying cash flows are perpetuities. Yet, most projects will have a finite useful life. Because the [...] Read more.
The standard formulas for calculating the value of a firm’s tax shield and its weighted average cost of capital (WACC) use the assumption that the underlying cash flows are perpetuities. Yet, most projects will have a finite useful life. Because the perpetuity approach will overstate the value of a finite-life project’s tax shield, this factor will pressure the perpetuity-formula WACC to be less than the finite-life WACC. However, a large portion of the value of a perpetual tax shield can be attributed to interest payments during the next 5, 10, or 25 years, making it possible for the perpetuity-formula WACC to be greater than the finite-life WACC. Using a series of numerical examples, this paper shows that the finite-life WACC can be either higher or lower than the perpetuity-formula WACC depending on the project’s useful life, the required return on the unlevered project, the firm’s capital structure, the cost of debt, the marginal tax rate, and the debt repayment pattern (e.g., coupon bonds or amortizing loans). The analysis in this article helps managers better understand the potential biases introduced into the capital budgeting process when using the perpetuity-formula WACC to evaluate projects with finite useful lives. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Engineering Economics)
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23 pages, 1540 KiB  
Article
Spatial Multivariate GARCH Models and Financial Spillovers
by Rosella Giacometti, Gabriele Torri, Kamonchai Rujirarangsan and Michela Cameletti
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 397; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090397 - 6 Sep 2023
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2550
Abstract
We estimate the risk spillover among European banks from equity log-return data via Conditional Value at Risk (CoVaR). The joint dynamic of returns is modeled with a spatial DCC-GARCH which allows the conditional variance of log-returns of each bank to depend on past [...] Read more.
We estimate the risk spillover among European banks from equity log-return data via Conditional Value at Risk (CoVaR). The joint dynamic of returns is modeled with a spatial DCC-GARCH which allows the conditional variance of log-returns of each bank to depend on past volatility shocks to other banks and their past squared returns in a parsimonious way. The backtesting of the resulting risk measures provides evidence that (i) the multivariate GARCH model with Student’s t distribution is more accurate than both the standard multivariate Gaussian model and the Filtered Historical Simulation (FHS), and (ii) the introduction of a spatial component improves the assessment of risk profiles and the market risk spillovers. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Featured Papers in Mathematics and Finance)
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18 pages, 919 KiB  
Article
Measuring the Performance of Private Pension Companies in Türkiye by Gray Relational Analysis Method
by Muharrem Umut
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 396; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090396 - 6 Sep 2023
Viewed by 1579
Abstract
The private pension is a system designed to maintain an income level during passive periods by utilizing the income earned during active working years. It complements the mandatory retirement systems of the public sector and is based on a voluntary participation structure. Additionally, [...] Read more.
The private pension is a system designed to maintain an income level during passive periods by utilizing the income earned during active working years. It complements the mandatory retirement systems of the public sector and is based on a voluntary participation structure. Additionally, it serves as an investment and savings tool with the ability to provide long-term funds. The legislation for the private pension system was enacted in Türkiye in 2001, and it was implemented in 2003. In addition, a government contribution program was initiated to promote the system in 2013. An automatic enrollment system was introduced in 2017. The effectiveness and performance of individual pension companies play significant roles in the system. This study aims to measure the performance of individual pension companies operating in Türkiye using the gray relational analysis method, which is an effective measurement method, for the years 2016–2022. Subsequently, based on the measurement results, recommendations will be provided. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Emerging Issues in Economics, Finance and Business)
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17 pages, 328 KiB  
Review
Managing Financial Performance toward Achievements in Sustainability Prospects: Comparative Analysis of the e-Commerce and Hospitality Industries
by Gabrijela Velickovic, Jelena Stanojevic and Milan Veselinovic
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 395; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090395 - 5 Sep 2023
Viewed by 2257
Abstract
The recent pandemic has been identified as a driver of one of the most severe socio-economic crises over the last few decades. While some sectors have experienced an expansion, others have struggled with a changed business environment. The aim of this research is [...] Read more.
The recent pandemic has been identified as a driver of one of the most severe socio-economic crises over the last few decades. While some sectors have experienced an expansion, others have struggled with a changed business environment. The aim of this research is to simultaneously examine the financial performance and sustainability of the e-commerce and hospitality industries, applying asset and debt ratio analysis to the top five companies in the world from each sector in the time period from 2017 to 2022. The results indicate that the assessed companies demonstrated the ability to successfully manage some of their assets. The debt ratio analysis implies that the assessed companies in the hotel industry have reshaped their capital structure, increasing their reliance on debt in 2020 and 2021 to finance their assets. On the contrary, the selected e-commerce companies were found on average to rely less on debt to finance assets. In accordance with expectations, the differences across the examined sectors and companies that have been observed are mostly in regard to the lower scale of utilization of fixed assets to generate turnover, and in terms of the increased share of debts used to finance assets in the hotel industry, which was among the first and hardest hit by the pandemic. Consequently, the study allows policy makers to identify distinctive strategies for each area of economic activity. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue CSR: Ensuring Reputation and Financial Sustainability)
19 pages, 364 KiB  
Article
Religiosity and Risk: Association of Judeo-Christian Ethicality with a Sustainable Business Environment
by Hannah Michelle Russell, Donald L. Ariail, Katherine Taken Smith and Lawrence Murphy Smith
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 394; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090394 - 4 Sep 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2082
Abstract
Prior research has examined the relationship of religiosity to aspects of business risks, notably, the ethical environment in which business firms operate. Religiosity is connected to economic factors and societal factors. This study examines the relationship of religion-based ethics, specifically Judeo-Christian ethicality, in [...] Read more.
Prior research has examined the relationship of religiosity to aspects of business risks, notably, the ethical environment in which business firms operate. Religiosity is connected to economic factors and societal factors. This study examines the relationship of religion-based ethics, specifically Judeo-Christian ethicality, in a country (measured by Judeo-Christian presence as a proportion of the population) to economic freedom, economic activity, gender equality, social progress, and corruption. Modern business firms, in efforts to embrace diversity, accommodate cultural factors such as religiosity, particularly so in multinational operations where diverse religions will be encountered. Findings show that Judeo-Christian ethicality has a positive relationship to factors connected to a society’s sustainable business culture—that is, more economic freedom, higher economic activity, improved gender equality, better social progress, and lower corruption. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Sustainability and Finance)
21 pages, 1830 KiB  
Article
Blockchain in the Smart City and Its Financial Sustainability from a Stakeholder’s Perspective
by Hossein Hassani, Kujtim Avdiu, Stephan Unger and Maedeh Taj Mazinani
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 393; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090393 - 2 Sep 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1529
Abstract
In this paper, we take a city’s budget, which represents the resources that need to be allocated, and test how many blockchain users need to join a voting process of how the city’s resources should be allocated in order to best represent their [...] Read more.
In this paper, we take a city’s budget, which represents the resources that need to be allocated, and test how many blockchain users need to join a voting process of how the city’s resources should be allocated in order to best represent their preferences. This voting process can be tracked very well through the utilization of IoT and smart technology in a smart city. Therefore, we showed that the budget resource allocation of a smart city can be significantly optimized through the utilization of blockchain technology. We found that just a tiny fraction of 0.12% of the population of blockchain participants is needed to significantly represent the spending behavior of the total population. This has significant implications as it shows the strength and importance of a required blockchain in a smart city and its minimal energy consumption requirements. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Applied Statistics and Big Data Analysis in Finance: Exploring Emerging Trends and Opportunities)
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30 pages, 1571 KiB  
Article
Simulation Framework to Determine Suitable Innovations for Volatility Persistence Estimation: The GARCH Approach
by Richard T. A. Samuel, Charles Chimedza and Caston Sigauke
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 392; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090392 - 1 Sep 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1393
Abstract
This study rolls out a robust framework relevant for simulation studies through the Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model using the rugarch package. The package is thoroughly investigated, and novel findings are identified for improved and effective simulations. The focus of the study [...] Read more.
This study rolls out a robust framework relevant for simulation studies through the Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model using the rugarch package. The package is thoroughly investigated, and novel findings are identified for improved and effective simulations. The focus of the study is to provide necessary simulation steps to determine appropriate distributions of innovations relevant for estimating the persistence of volatility. The simulation steps involve “background (optional), defining the aim, research questions, method of implementation, and summarised conclusion”. The method of implementation is a workflow that includes writing the code, setting the seed, setting the true parameters a priori, data generation process and performance assessment through meta-statistics. These novel, easy-to-understand steps are demonstrated on financial returns using illustrative Monte Carlo simulation with empirical verification. Among the findings, the study shows that regardless of the arrangement of the seed values, the efficiency and consistency of an estimator generally remain the same as the sample size increases. The study also derived a new and flexible true-parameter-recovery measure which can be used by researchers to determine the level of recovery of the true parameter by the MCS estimator. It is anticipated that the outcomes of this study will be broadly applicable in finance, with intuitive appeal in other areas, for volatility modelling. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Risk)
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13 pages, 2245 KiB  
Article
Properties of VaR and CVaR Risk Measures in High-Frequency Domain: Long–Short Asymmetry and Significance of the Power-Law Tail
by Tetsuya Takaishi
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 391; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090391 - 1 Sep 2023
Viewed by 1332
Abstract
This study investigates the properties of risk measure, value at risk (VaR) and conditional VaR (CVaR), using high-frequency Bitcoin data. These data allow us to conduct a high statistical analysis. Our findings reveal a disparity in VaR and CVaR values between the left [...] Read more.
This study investigates the properties of risk measure, value at risk (VaR) and conditional VaR (CVaR), using high-frequency Bitcoin data. These data allow us to conduct a high statistical analysis. Our findings reveal a disparity in VaR and CVaR values between the left and right tails of the return probability distributions. We refer to this disparity as “long–short asymmetry”. In the high-frequency domain, the tail distribution can be accurately described by a power-law function. Moreover, the ratio of CVaR to VaR is expected to be determined solely by the power-law exponent. Through empirical analysis, we confirm that this ratio property holds true for high confidence levels. Furthermore, we investigate the relationship between risk measures (VaR and CVaR) and realized volatility. We observe that they trace a trajectory in a two-dimensional plane. This trajectory changes gradually, indicating periods of both high and low risk. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Featured Papers in Mathematics and Finance)
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19 pages, 550 KiB  
Article
Impact of Liquidity on the Efficiency of Banks in India Using Panel Data Analysis
by Anureet Virk Sidhu, Rebecca Abraham, Venkata Mrudula Bhimavarapu, Jagjeevan Kanoujiya and Shailesh Rastogi
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 390; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090390 - 31 Aug 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1968
Abstract
The current study investigates the impact of the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) on the efficiency of Indian banks for the period 2010 to 2019. The study examines the effect of internal bank elements like ownership structure, transparency and disclosure, and technological advancement on [...] Read more.
The current study investigates the impact of the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) on the efficiency of Indian banks for the period 2010 to 2019. The study examines the effect of internal bank elements like ownership structure, transparency and disclosure, and technological advancement on the relationship between the LCR and efficiency. Bank efficiency proxied as technical efficiency is evaluated by applying the data envelope analysis approach. Applying the panel data regression technique, the authors discover that the LCR has a positive impact on the technical efficiency at a constant return to scale of banks. The relationship between the LCR and the technical efficiency at a variable return to scale is non-linear. Initially, as liquidity increases, the efficiency of banks improves, after reaching its optimum level, efficiency starts to decline. Furthermore, liquidity tends to improve efficiency of banks with higher promoter stakes, whereas opposing results are evidenced for institutional investors and technological advancement. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Corporate Finance: Financial Management of the Firm)
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14 pages, 1110 KiB  
Article
A Cautionary Note on the Use of Accounting Semi-Identity-Based Models
by Francisco Javier Sánchez-Vidal
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 389; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090389 - 30 Aug 2023
Viewed by 1269
Abstract
This study employs a Monte Carlo simulation to see whether accounting identity problems are present in the Fazzari, Hubbard, and Petersen model (1988). The Monte Carlo simulation generates 50,000 random cash flows, Tobin’s Q, and error term variables, which shape an investment variable [...] Read more.
This study employs a Monte Carlo simulation to see whether accounting identity problems are present in the Fazzari, Hubbard, and Petersen model (1988). The Monte Carlo simulation generates 50,000 random cash flows, Tobin’s Q, and error term variables, which shape an investment variable that is dependent on them. Cash flows and investments are linked by a partial accounting identity, also known as an accounting semi-identity (ASI). An accounting identity is, for example, an equality between the left and right sides of a balance sheet. An ASI is not a complete one since one or more components of the accounting identity are missing. The estimated coefficients of an ASI do not represent reality, according to the OLS estimations. The regression tells us less about causality the closer the data are to the accounting identity. This is the first time that the biases of OLS estimations in an ASI-based model have been demonstrated. Full article
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17 pages, 1715 KiB  
Article
Proposing Credit- and Sensitivity-Risk-Based Methodology to Address Corporate Bond Illiquidity Problem
by Ruchi Arora and Rishi Mehra
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(9), 388; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16090388 - 30 Aug 2023
Viewed by 1763
Abstract
The current study explores the problem of illiquidity in the corporate bond market globally and proposes a solution to enhance liquidity by studying various dimensions of liquidity. Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to propose a solution to the global issue of [...] Read more.
The current study explores the problem of illiquidity in the corporate bond market globally and proposes a solution to enhance liquidity by studying various dimensions of liquidity. Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to propose a solution to the global issue of illiquidity in the corporate bond market. The problem has been identified by many researchers and this paper attempts to find a viable solution in the “fungibility route” as an alternative to the “liquidity route”. Design/Methodology: An analysis of a sample size of 234,772 trade data of corporate bonds and a sample size of 2,00,607 trade data of G-securities is performed to identify the problem. Findings/Solution proposed: A mathematical model based on the credit risk differential and sensitivity differential is proposed to find out the fair value at which an illiquid bond can be exchanged with a liquid bond. To arrive at the fair value of the illiquid bond, we have calculated the risk-adjusted yield (RAY) using the modified duration and a credit risk differential. Originality: This research is a pioneering effort in addressing the worldwide issue of corporate bond illiquidity by proposing a novel solution. The proposed strategy aims to improve the liquidity of the bond indirectly, by utilizing the fungibility route. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Emerging Markets II)
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