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Atmosphere
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Asian Summer Monsoon Variability, Teleconnections and Projections
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Asian Summer Monsoon Variability, Teleconnections and Projections

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 December 2020) | Viewed by 18534

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Satyaban Bishoyi Ratna

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
Interests: climate variability and teleconnection; climate change; Asian summer monsoon; extreme weather events; regional climate modelling
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Annalisa Cherchi

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC-CNR), Via P. Gobetti 101, 40129 Bologna, Italy
Interests: climate variability and climate change; Asian summer monsoon; global and regional monsoons; global modelling

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleague,

Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability significantly affects hydroclimate, and thus socioeconomic conditions for nearly half of the world’s population residing in the region. The ASM has large variabilities at different timescales (i.e., sub-seasonal, interannual, and decadal), and it involves complex multi-scale interactions within the Earth's atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and cryosphere components of the climate system. The ASM has changed in the past, and is expected to change in future decades because of global warming. Given the multitude of physical processes and interactions that influence the monsoon, the simulation of its mean state, variability, and related teleconnections by state-of-the-art climate models still exhibits large uncertainties. A better understanding of ASM physics and dynamics, with more accurate prediction of monsoon systems, is therefore of a great practical importance to the research community and society.

This Special Issue invites papers on all aspects of Asian monsoon, from the variability and predictability of the monsoon systems to extremes and projections. The submission of original and review articles that aim to study monsoon variability, the role of different teleconnections, extremes, predictability on multiple timescales, and projections of future changes in monsoon are particularly welcome. This Special Issue hopes to bring attention to recent developments and challenges ahead for understanding the variability and predicting the monsoon in a changing climate.

Dr. Satyaban Bishoyi Ratna
Dr. Annalisa Cherchi
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • monsoon variability and change
  • teleconnections, large-scale climate modes
  • droughts and floods
  • projections
  • monsoon dynamics
  • global and regional climate modelling
  • extreme weather and climate events

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Published Papers (6 papers)

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Research

15 pages, 5627 KiB  
Article
Precipitation Trends in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basin, South Asia: Inconsistency in Satellite-Based Products
by Muna Khatiwada and Scott Curtis
Atmosphere 2021, 12(9), 1155; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12091155 - 8 Sep 2021
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 3495
Abstract
The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river basin is the world’s third largest. Literature show that changes in precipitation have a significant impact on climate, agriculture, and the environment in the GBM. Two satellite-based precipitation products, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate [...] Read more.
The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river basin is the world’s third largest. Literature show that changes in precipitation have a significant impact on climate, agriculture, and the environment in the GBM. Two satellite-based precipitation products, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) and Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP), were used to analyze and compare precipitation trends over the GBM as a whole and within 34 pre-defined hydrological sub-basins separately for the period 1983–2019. A non-parametric Modified Mann-Kendall test was applied to determine significant trends in monsoon (June–September) and pre-monsoon (March–May) precipitation. The results show an inconsistency between the two precipitation products. Namely, the MSWEP pre-monsoon precipitation trend has significantly increased (Z-value = 2.236, p = 0.025), and the PERSIANN-CDR monsoon precipitation trend has significantly decreased (Z-value = −33.071, p < 0.000). However, both products strongly indicate that precipitation has recently declined in the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons in the eastern and southern regions of the GBM river basin, agreeing with several previous studies. Further work is needed to identify the reasons behind inconsistent decreasing and increasing precipitation trends in the GBM river basin. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Asian Summer Monsoon Variability, Teleconnections and Projections)
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18 pages, 5227 KiB  
Article
Climatological Increased Precipitation from July to August in the Western North Pacific Region Simulated by CMIP6 Models
by Xiao Dong and Renping Lin
Atmosphere 2021, 12(6), 664; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12060664 - 22 May 2021
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2206
Abstract
In this study, the climatological precipitation increase from July to August over the western North Pacific (WNP) region was investigated through observations and simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), atmospheric model simulations and historical experiments. Firstly, observational analysis showed [...] Read more.
In this study, the climatological precipitation increase from July to August over the western North Pacific (WNP) region was investigated through observations and simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), atmospheric model simulations and historical experiments. Firstly, observational analysis showed that the precipitation increase is associated with a decrease in the local sea surface temperature (SST), indicating that the precipitation increase is not driven by the change in SST. In addition, the pattern of precipitation increase is similar to the vertical motion change at 500-hPa, suggesting that the precipitation increase is related to the circulation change. Moisture budget analysis further confirmed this relation. In addition to the observational analysis, the outputs from 26 CMIP6 models were further evaluated. Compared with atmospheric model simulations, air–sea coupled models largely improve the simulation of the climatological precipitation increase from July to August. Furthermore, model simulations confirmed that the bias in the precipitation increase is intimately associated with the circulation change bias. Thus, two factors are responsible for the bias of the precipitation increase from July to August in climate models: air–sea coupling processes and the performance in vertical motion change. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Asian Summer Monsoon Variability, Teleconnections and Projections)
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20 pages, 2436 KiB  
Article
Impact of Climate Change on Past Indian Monsoon and Circulation: A Perspective Based on Radiogenic and Trace Metal Geochemistry
by Harunur Rashid, Yang Wang and Alexandra T. Gourlan
Atmosphere 2021, 12(3), 330; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12030330 - 4 Mar 2021
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2902
Abstract
The Indian summer monsoon (ISM), one of the dramatic illustrations of seasonal hydrological variability in the climate system, affects billions of lives. The ISM dominantly controls the northern Indian Ocean sea-surface salinity, mostly in the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea, by [...] Read more.
The Indian summer monsoon (ISM), one of the dramatic illustrations of seasonal hydrological variability in the climate system, affects billions of lives. The ISM dominantly controls the northern Indian Ocean sea-surface salinity, mostly in the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea, by the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna and Irrawaddy-Salween rivers outflow and direct rainfall. In the past decade, numerous studies have used radiogenic neodymium (εNd) isotopes of seawater to link Indian subcontinent erosion and the ensuing increase in discharge that results in changes in the north Indian Ocean sea surface. Here we synthesized the state of the ISM and ocean circulation using the neodymium and hafnium isotopes from north Indian Ocean deep-sea sediments. Our data suggest that the Bay of Bengal and north Indian Ocean sea-surface conditions were most likely modulated by changes in the ISM strength during the last glacial-interglacial cycle. These findings contrast to the hypothesis that suggests that the bottom water neodymium isotopes of the northern Indian Ocean were modulated by switching between two distant sources, namely North Atlantic Deep Water and Antarctic bottom water. Furthermore, the consistency between the neodymium and hafnium isotopes during the last glacial maximum and Holocene suggests a weak and dry ISM and strong and wet conditions, respectively. These data also indicate that the primary source of these isotopes was the Himalayas. Our results support the previously published paleo-proxy records, indicating weak and strong monsoons for the same periods. Moreover, our data further support the hypothesis that the northern Indian Ocean neodymium isotopes were decoupled from the global ocean neodymium budget due to the greater regional influence by the great Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna and Irrawaddy-Salween discharge draining the Indian subcontinent to the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Asian Summer Monsoon Variability, Teleconnections and Projections)
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17 pages, 8375 KiB  
Article
Model Uncertainty in the Projected Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation Change under Low-Emission Scenarios
by Shang-Min Long and Gen Li
Atmosphere 2021, 12(2), 248; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12020248 - 12 Feb 2021
Cited by 8 | Viewed by 2567
Abstract
The projected ISM precipitation changes under low-emission scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-2.6 (SSP1-2.6), are investigated by outputs from models participating in phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). Based on the [...] Read more.
The projected ISM precipitation changes under low-emission scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-2.6 (SSP1-2.6), are investigated by outputs from models participating in phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). Based on the high-emission scenarios like RCP8.5, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report suggests a wetter Indian summer monsoon (ISM) by the end of 21st century. Although the multi-model ensemble mean (MME) ISM precipitation under RCP2.6 and SSP1-2.6 is still projected to increase over 2050–2099 referenced to 1900–1949, the intermodel spread of the ISM precipitation change is tremendous in both CMIPs. Indeed, the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of ISM precipitation change, defined as the MME divided by its intermodel standard deviation, is even below 1 under the low-emission scenarios. This casts doubts on a future wetter ISM in a warmer climate. Moisture budget analyses further show that most of the model uncertainty in ISM precipitation change is caused by its dynamical component from the atmospheric circulation change. As expected, the interhemispheric surface warming contrast is essential in causing the intermodel differences in ISM circulation and precipitation changes under low-emission scenarios. In addition, the projected wetter ISM is prominently enhanced from CMIP5 to CMIP6, along with reduced model uncertainty. However, the resultant increased SNR in CMIP6 is still low in most ISM regions. The results imply that ISM precipitation change is highly uncertain under low-emission scenarios, which greatly challenges the decisions-making in adaptation policies for the densely populated South Asian countries. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Asian Summer Monsoon Variability, Teleconnections and Projections)
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13 pages, 5313 KiB  
Article
Effect of the El Niño Decaying Pace on the East Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation Pattern during Post-El Niño Summers
by Wenping Jiang, Gen Li and Gongjie Wang
Atmosphere 2021, 12(2), 140; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12020140 - 22 Jan 2021
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 2937
Abstract
El Niño events vary from case to case with different decaying paces. In this study, we demonstrate that the different El Niño decaying paces have distinct impacts on the East Asian monsoon circulation pattern during post-El Niño summers. For fast decaying (FD) El [...] Read more.
El Niño events vary from case to case with different decaying paces. In this study, we demonstrate that the different El Niño decaying paces have distinct impacts on the East Asian monsoon circulation pattern during post-El Niño summers. For fast decaying (FD) El Niño summers, a large-scale anomalous anticyclone dominates over East Asia and the North Pacific from subtropical to mid-latitude; whereas, the East Asian monsoon circulation display a dipole pattern with anomalous northern cyclone and southern anticyclone for slow decaying (SD) El Niño summers. The difference in anomalous East Asian monsoon circulation patterns was closely associated with the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns in the tropics. In FD El Niño summers, the cold SST anomalies in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and warm SST anomalies in the Maritime Continent induce the anticyclone anomalies over the Northwest Pacific. In contrast, the warm Kelvin wave anchored over the tropical Indian Ocean during SD El Niño summers plays a crucial role in sustaining the anticyclone anomalies over the Northwest Pacific. In particular, the opposite atmospheric circulation anomaly patterns over Northeast Asia and the mid-latitude North Pacific are mainly modulated by the stationary Rossby wave trains triggered by the opposite SST anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific during FD and SD El Niño summers. Finally, the effect of distinct summer monsoon circulation patterns associated with the El Niño decay pace on the summer climate over East Asia are also discussed. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Asian Summer Monsoon Variability, Teleconnections and Projections)
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20 pages, 6592 KiB  
Article
Characteristics of Large-Scale Circulation Affecting the Inter-Annual Precipitation Variability in Northern Sumatra Island during Boreal Summer
by Yahya Darmawan, Huang-Hsiung Hsu and Jia-Yuh Yu
Atmosphere 2021, 12(2), 136; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12020136 - 22 Jan 2021
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3034
Abstract
This study aims to explore the contrasting characteristics of large-scale circulation that led to the precipitation anomalies over the northern parts of Sumatra Island. Further, the impact of varying the Asian–Australian Monsoon (AAM) was investigated for triggering the precipitation variability over the study [...] Read more.
This study aims to explore the contrasting characteristics of large-scale circulation that led to the precipitation anomalies over the northern parts of Sumatra Island. Further, the impact of varying the Asian–Australian Monsoon (AAM) was investigated for triggering the precipitation variability over the study area. The moisture budget analysis was applied to quantify the most dominant component that induces precipitation variability during the JJA (June, July, and August) period. Then, the composite analysis and statistical approach were applied to confirm the result of the moisture budget. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Anaysis Interim (ERA-Interim) from 1981 to 2016, we identified 9 (nine) dry and 6 (six) wet years based on precipitation anomalies, respectively. The dry years (wet years) anomalies over the study area were mostly supported by downward (upward) vertical velocity anomaly instead of other variables such as specific humidity, horizontal velocity, and evaporation. In the dry years (wet years), there is a strengthening (weakening) of the descent motion, which triggers a reduction (increase) of convection over the study area. The overall downward (upward) motion of westerly (easterly) winds appears to suppress (support) the convection and lead to negative (positive) precipitation anomaly in the whole region but with the largest anomaly over northern parts of Sumatra. The AAM variability proven has a significant role in the precipitation variability over the study area. A teleconnection between the AAM and other global circulations implies the precipitation variability over the northern part of Sumatra Island as a regional phenomenon. The large-scale tropical circulation is possibly related to the PWC modulation (Pacific Walker Circulation). Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Asian Summer Monsoon Variability, Teleconnections and Projections)
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