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A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Atmospheric Techniques, Instruments, and Modeling".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (25 March 2023) | Viewed by 21044

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Dr. Ching-Yuang Huang

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Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan City 320, Taiwan
Interests: mesoscale modeling; typhoon dynamics and modeling; GNSS RO data assimilation
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Dr. Shu-Ya Chen

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Guest Editor

GPS Science and Application Research Center, National Central University, Taoyuan City 320, Taiwan
Interests: GNSS RO; data assimilation; numerical model prediction on severe weather
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Dr. Kao-Shen Chung

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Guest Editor

Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan City 320, Taiwan
Interests: data assimilation; radar meteorology; severe weather; quantitative precipitation forecast
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The advancement of data assimilation has greatly improved the forecast skill of tropical cyclone (TC) prediction, mostly relying on the effective digestion of remote sensing data. In particular, recent attention to radar data assimilation, either regarding measurement type (polarimetric or non-polarimetric) or assimilation strategy, has helped to further improve our understanding of the internal structures of TCs as well as convective processes intimately influencing the predictability and sensitivity of specific TC forecasts. On the other hand, satellite data that provide a great coverage over entire TCs and their surrounding environment offer good prospect for the improvement of the synoptic-scale condition that largely controls TC track over the vast ocean. With a global coverage, the vertical high-resolution soundings of GNSS radio occultation (RO) measurement shed light into the dim area where few observations are available for retrieving the large-scale atmosphere for embedded TCs. Recent data assimilation with GNSS RO observations (e.g., from FORMOTSAT-3 and FORMOSAT-7) has proven very encouraging with better prediction of TC track and even TC intensity. The multi-utilization of different remote sensing data including satellite radiance data has been a central point of seeking the optimal impacts of observations on typhoon/hurricane forecasts. However, these are not being adequately pursued at present, due to the limited sources as well as the great challenge in advanced data assimilation techniques with ensemble Kalman filters and variational methods in various hybrid systems. However, we are looking forward to envisioning a great improvement in forecast skill with recent achievements in data assimilation, and therefore a better in-depth understanding of typhoon/hurricane dynamics. We especially encourage potential contributors to present works addressing model initialization near the area of topography where convective processes associated with TCs are significantly modulated and thus increase the dynamic complexity in TC track behaviors.

Dr. Ching-Yuang Huang
Dr. Shu-Ya Chen
Dr. Kao-Shen Chung
Guest Editors

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Keywords

tropical cyclone
data assimilation
remote sensing
satellite radiance data
radar data
GNSS radio occultation
ensemble Kalman filters
hybrid systems

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Published Papers (9 papers)

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Research

21 pages, 11015 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Impacts of GNSS RO Data on Typhoon Forecasts Using Global FV3GFS with GSI 4DEnVar

by Tang-Xun Hong, Ching-Yuang Huang, Chen-Yang Lin, Guo-Yuan Lien, Zih-Mao Huang and Shu-Ya Chen

Atmosphere 2023, 14(4), 735; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14040735 - 19 Apr 2023

Viewed by 1722

Abstract

The FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 satellites were launched in 2019, which can provide considerably larger amounts of radio occultation (RO) observations than the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC satellites. The radio signals emitted from the global navigation satellites system (GNSS) are received by these low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites to provide the so-called bending angle accounting for bending of the rays after penetrating through the atmosphere. Deeper RO observations can be retrieved from FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 for use in RO data assimilation to improve forecasts of tropical cyclones. This study used the global model FV3GFS with the finest grid resolution of about 25 km to simulate five selected typhoons over the western North Pacific, including Hagibis in 2019, Maysak and Haishen in 2020, and Kompasu and Rai in 2021. For each case, two experiments were conducted with and without assimilating FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 RO bending angle. The RO data were assimilated by the GSI 4DEnVar data assimilation system for a total period of 4 days (with 6 h assimilation window) before the typhoon genesis time, followed by a forecast length of 120 h. The RO data assimilation improved the typhoon track forecasts on average of 42 runs. However, no significantly positive impacts, in general, were found on the typhoon intensity forecasts, except for Maysak. Analyses for Maysak attributed the improved intensity forecast mainly to the improved analyses for wind, temperature, and moisture in the mid-upper troposphere after data assimilation. Consequently, the RO data largely enhanced the evolving intensity of the typhoon at a more consistent movement as explained by the wavenumber-one vorticity budget analysis. On the other hand, a noted improvement on the wind analysis, but still with degraded temperature analysis above the boundary layer, also improved track forecast at some specific times for Hagibis. The predictability of typhoon track and intensity as marginally improved by use of the large RO data remains very challenging to be well explored. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Typhoon/Hurricane Dynamics and Prediction)

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22 pages, 12504 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Influences of the Mid-Level Vortex on the Formation of Tropical Cyclone Toraji (2013)

by Chen-Hao Chuang, Yi-Huan Hsieh, Pin-Yen Liu, Hsu-Feng Teng and Cheng-Shang Lee

Atmosphere 2023, 14(4), 709; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14040709 - 12 Apr 2023

Viewed by 1837

Abstract

This study analyzes the influences of the mid-level vortex on the formation of Tropical Cyclone Toraji (2013). A rare case of a tropical cyclone that formed near Taiwan involved a mid-level vortex that was a remnant of Tropical Cyclone Kong-Rey (2013). The piecewise potential vorticity inversion method is applied to examine the contribution of the mid-level vortex to the low-level wind field under quasi-balanced conditions. Numerical sensitivity experiments are conducted to quantify the importance of the mid-level vortex on Toraji formation, in which the mid-level vortex is removed with different removing factors (percentages) from the initial field. The results indicate that mid-level positive potential vorticity anomalies significantly contribute to the low-level positive vorticity before Toraji formation. Furthermore, when the removing factors increase in the sensitivity experiments, either the intensity of the simulated low-level vortex or the development trend of pre-Toraji decreases. However, there is no significant relationship between the convection’s magnitude and the intensity of the mid-level vortex. The main difference comes from the mid-level vortex’s intensity, which would result in a greater high-level warm core structure and cause stronger vertical mass flux. In summary, the mid-level vortex plays a critical role in the formation of Toraji. It provides a favorable environment for forming the pre-Toraji vortex by maintaining a high-level warm-core structure, leading to the formation of Toraji. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Typhoon/Hurricane Dynamics and Prediction)

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19 pages, 9107 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Seasonality of Relationship between Tropical Cyclone Frequency over the Southern Hemisphere and Tropical Climate Modes

by Tomomichi Ogata

Atmosphere 2023, 14(3), 546; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14030546 - 13 Mar 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2081

Abstract

In this study, the author examined the tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the southern hemisphere (SH) and its relationship with tropical climate modes, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), during the austral summer (December–January–February; DJF) and fall (March–April–May; MAM). The correlation analysis between the TC activity and the global sea surface temperature (SST) suggested that an increased TC activity over the southwestern and southeastern Indian Ocean (SWIO and SEIO) was associated with a La Niña-like SST pattern, while an increased TC activity over the southwestern Pacific (SWP) was associated with an El Niño-like SST pattern. The atmospheric conditions accompanying the TC increase over the SWIO/SEIO indicated that a La Niña induces tropospheric cooling over the tropics with cyclonic circulation anomalies over the TC genesis region. Both the SST anomalies and the cyclonic circulation anomalies were significantly correlated with TC genesis parameters, suggesting that they contributed to TC genesis. To investigate the SST precursors, a lead-lag correlation analysis was performed. For the TC variations over the SEIO, an SST pattern that resembled the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) was statistically significant at a two-season lead. However, such a TC-ENSO relationship is seasonally dependent, with different patterns during DJF and MAM. These results suggest that the Matsuno-Gill response to ENSO is an important factor in TC activity but that this influence is seasonally modulated over the SH. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Typhoon/Hurricane Dynamics and Prediction)

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11 pages, 1695 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Strategy for the Prediction of Typhoon Wind and Storm Surge Height Using the Parametric Typhoon Model: Case Study for Hinnamnor in 2022

by Jun-Hyeok Son, Hojin Kim, Ki-Young Heo, Jae-Il Kwon, Sang-Hun Jeong, Jin-Yong Choi, Je-Yun Chun, Yeong-Yeon Kwon and Jung-Woon Choi

Atmosphere 2023, 14(1), 82; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14010082 - 31 Dec 2022

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2654

Abstract

The parametric typhoon model is a powerful typhoon prediction and reproduction tool with advantages in accuracy, and computational speed. To simulate typhoons’ horizontal features, the longitude and latitude of the typhoon center, central pressure, radius of maximum wind speed (Rmax), and background states (such as surface air pressure and wind speed) are required. When a typhoon approaches or is predicted to affect Korea, the Korea Meteorological Agency (KMA) notifies the above-mentioned parameters, except for the Rmax and background state. The contribution of background wind and pressure is not very significant; however, Rmax is essential for calculating typhoon winds. Therefore, the optimized Rmax for the typhoons over the past five years was estimated at each time step compared with the in situ wind observation record. After that, a fifth-order polynomial fitting was performed between the estimated Rmax and the radius of strong wind (RSW; >15 m/s) provided by the KMA. Finally, the Rmax was calculated from the RSW via the empirical equation, and the horizontal fields of typhoon Hinnamnor (2211) were reproduced using a parametric model. Furthermore, the ocean storm surge height was adequately simulated in the surge model. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Typhoon/Hurricane Dynamics and Prediction)

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18 pages, 3773 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Impact of Assimilating FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 Radio Occultation Data on Typhoon Prediction Using a Regional Model

by Ying-Jhen Chen, Jing-Shan Hong and Wen-Jou Chen

Atmosphere 2022, 13(11), 1879; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13111879 - 10 Nov 2022

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2220

Abstract

As the successor of FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (FS3/C1), FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 (FS7/C2) was successfully launched on 25 June 2019. FS3 radio occultation (RO) data has contributed greatly to Taiwan’s meteorological progress, improving model representations of marine boundary layer heights, cyclogenesis, tropical cyclones/typhoons, and Mei-Yu front systems. The operational CWBWRF numerical weather prediction model with the 3DEnVar data assimilating system in the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau (CWB) was adopted to evaluate the impact of assimilating FS7 RO data. The following two experiments were conducted: one assimilated the in-situ observations as in the CWB operational task (nRO), and the other additionally assimilated FS7 RO refractivity profiles (wRO). Both experiments utilized 6-h assimilating window and full cycle data assimilation strategy and made 120-h forecasts after each assimilation. Within over 70 synoptic verification cases, the biases of geopotential height, temperature, and wind were reduced in the upper model levels in wRO results, and the typhoon track and intensity prediction error reductions were statistically significant. In addition, the wRO experiment improved the typhoon structure in the initial conditions and led to a better typhoon structure forecast. These results showed that the FS7 RO refractivity assimilation could improve model forecast performance, leading to its operational use in the CWB. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Typhoon/Hurricane Dynamics and Prediction)

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22 pages, 8192 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Exploring the Evolution of Typhoon Lekima (2019) Moving Offshore Northeast of Taiwan with a Multi-Resolution Global Model

by Ching-Yuang Huang, Chau-Hsiang Chang and Hung-Chi Kuo

Atmosphere 2022, 13(11), 1817; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13111817 - 1 Nov 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2017

Abstract

Typhoon Lekima occurred in early August 2019 and moved northwestward toward Taiwan. During offshore passage, the typhoon underwent rapid intensification, with a northward deflected track, moving closer to northeastern Taiwan. A global model, MPAS, at a multi-resolution of 60-15-3 km, is utilized with ensemble forecasts to investigate the dynamic processes causing the track deflection and intensity change as well as identify the track uncertainty to initial perturbed conditions under the topographic effects of the Central Mountain Range (CMR). For spinning up the typhoon vortex in ensemble forecasts, dynamic vortex initialization has been enforced with a 3 km resolution targeted at the Taiwan area. As one specific member track is similar to the best track, the track deflection is significantly reduced in the absence of the Taiwan terrain, highlighting the role of the topographic effects of the CMR. For these tracks with similar deflection, the northward deflection is caused by the induced strong flow to the east of the typhoon center in response to the re-circulating flow around southern Taiwan, which produces the wavenumber-one gyre in the asymmetric flow difference to drive the vortex northward. The typhoon translation around the Taiwan terrain is dominated by the changing wavenumber-one horizontal potential vorticity (PV) advection during the track deflection in the ensemble forecasts. The formation of an intense PV tongue along the upper eyewall is a facilitation precondition of RI, while RI can be significantly enhanced in the presence of an intense lower-stratospheric PV core near the upper eye, which is produced by the radial inflow of the developed transverse vortex circulation over the upper-level outflow layer. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Typhoon/Hurricane Dynamics and Prediction)

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25 pages, 12983 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Impacts of Radio Occultation Data on Typhoon Forecasts as Explored by the Global MPAS-GSI System

by Tzu-Yu Chien, Shu-Ya Chen, Ching-Yuang Huang, Cheng-Peng Shih, Craig S. Schwartz, Zhiquan Liu, Jamie Bresch and Jia-Yang Lin

Atmosphere 2022, 13(9), 1353; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13091353 - 25 Aug 2022

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2179

Abstract

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) provides plentiful sounding profiles over regions lacking conventional observations. The Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) hybrid system for assimilating RO data is integrated in this study with the Model for Prediction Across Scales–Atmosphere (MPAS) to improve tropical cyclone forecasts. After the MPAS-GSI assimilation cycles, dynamical vortex initialization (DVI) that may effectively spin up the initial inner typhoon vortex through cycled model integration is implemented to improve the initial analysis fit to the best track position as well as maximum wind or pressure intensity for Typhoon Nepartak (2016) that moved northwestward toward southern Taiwan. During the cycling assimilation, assimilation with RO data improves the temperature and moisture analysis, and largely reduces the forecast errors compared to those without RO data assimilation. The two RO operators that assimilate local bending angle or refractivity produce similar analyses, but the temperature and moisture increments from bending angle assimilation are slightly larger than those from refractivity assimilation. The MPAS forecasts at 60-15 km resolution show that the typhoon track prediction is improved with RO data, especially using bending angle data. The reduction in track deviations is explained by the wavenumber-one potential vorticity budget for several forecasts associated with the track deflection near southern Taiwan. Assimilation of RO data has fewer impacts on the typhoon intensity forecast compared to the DVI that largely improves the initial and thus forecasted intensity of the typhoon but at the cost of a slightly degraded track. Use of the enhanced 3 km resolution in the typhoon path also further improved the forecasts with and without the DVI. The feasible performance of the MPAS-GSI system with the RO data impact is also illustrated for Typhoon Mitag (2019), that passed around northern Taiwan. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Typhoon/Hurricane Dynamics and Prediction)

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25 pages, 7566 KiB

Open AccessArticle

An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) to Study the Impact of Ocean Surface Observation from the Micro Unmanned Robot Observation Network (MURON) on Tropical Cyclone Forecast

by Junkyung Kay, Xuguang Wang and Masaya Yamamoto

Atmosphere 2022, 13(5), 779; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13050779 - 11 May 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2188

Abstract

The Micro Unmanned Robot Observation Network (MURON) is a planned in-situ observation network over the surface of West Pacific Ocean, and it is designed to sample high spatial and temporal resolution observations of wind and mass fields over the ocean surface. The impacts of MURON observations for Tropical Cyclone (TC) intensity forecast are investigated using Observation System Simulation Experiments. The regional Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) system of Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation is used with the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model to conduct OSSEs for typhoon Haiyan (2013) while Haiyan goes through rapid intensification. Assimilating MURON observations improves the TC structure and intensity analysis and forecast. The intensity forecast is improved largely due to the correction of initial vorticity and vertical transport of mass flux. The improvement of intensity forecast is attributed largely to the assimilated MURON wind observations when Haiyan is at the tropical disturbance stage, and then by the MURON mass observations when Haiyan enters the tropical storm stage. In addition, our results show that the quality of moisture analysis is sensitive to the choice of the moisture control variable (CV) in the EnKF system. Using the default pseudo relative humidity (PRH) as the moisture CV degrades the accuracy of the moisture analysis. This is likely due to the neglect of updated temperature field during the nonlinear conversion from the PRH CV to the mixing ratio variable and due to the larger deviation of the PRH from Gaussian distribution. The use of mixing ratio moisture CV mitigates these problems. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Typhoon/Hurricane Dynamics and Prediction)

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24 pages, 9014 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Numerical Study for Tropical Cyclone Atsani (2020) Past Offshore of Southern Taiwan under Topographic Influences

by Ching-Yuang Huang, Jia-Yang Lin, Hung-Chi Kuo, Der-Song Chen, Jing-Shan Hong, Ling-Feng Hsiao and Shu-Ya Chen

Atmosphere 2022, 13(4), 618; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13040618 - 12 Apr 2022

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2540

Abstract

Tropical Cyclone Atsani occurred in late October 2020 and moved westward offshore south of Taiwan. During its offshore passage, the cyclone deflects northward as it closes to the southern end of Taiwan. A global model MPAS at a multi-resolution of 60-15-3-km is applied to explore the track responses of Atsani and identify the topographic effects of the Central Mountain Range (CMR) on the cyclone circulation and the associated track deflection. With a 3-km resolution targeted at the Taiwan area, the cyclone track deflection can be reasonably simulated, with more sensitivity to physics schemes and dynamic vortex initialization and less sensitivity to initial environmental perturbations. When the Taiwan terrain is removed, the cyclone indeed deflects more northward earlier, in particular for simulations with a stronger cyclone that tends to generate stronger east-west wind asymmetry in the absence of the terrain. Idealized simulations with a regional model WRF at 3-km resolution are also utilized to contrast the track deflection of different departing cyclones, similar to the real case. It was found that northward deflection will be induced near south of the CMR-like terrain for both stronger and weaker westbound cyclones departing at different latitudes south of the terrain. We have explained why a further northward track at earlier stages is induced in the absence of the terrain effects in regard to model initial states. In both real and idealized cases, the track deflection of the cyclone moving around the terrain is dominated by the wavenumber-one horizontal potential vorticity (PV) advection that is somewhat offset by both vertical PV advection and differential diabatic heating. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Typhoon/Hurricane Dynamics and Prediction)

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