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The North Atlantic Ocean Dynamics and Climate Change
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The North Atlantic Ocean Dynamics and Climate Change

A special issue of Climate (ISSN 2225-1154).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 March 2022) | Viewed by 27186

Special Issue Editor

Prof. Dr. Knut Lehre Seip

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Technology, Arts and Design, Oslo Metropolitan University, Oslo‎, Norway
Interests: mathematical modeling; statistics; leading and lagging relations; rocky shore ecosystems; aquatic ecosystems; global temperature change; macroeconomics; decision making

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The ocean dynamic measures: The dynamics of the North Atlantic Ocean are characterized with several time series, the North Atlantic oscillations, NAO, the Atlantic Multidecadal oscillation, AMO, and the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation, i.e., the AMOC. Two of the series, the AMO and the AMOC, require several observation points to be constructed, whereas the NAO only measures the sea level pressure at two observation points. In addition to the three major measures, there are measures of ocean dynamics in ocean basins north and south of the North Atlantic that affect the dynamics of the North Atlantic.

Although the three time series give information on the dynamics of the same ocean basin, it is not well known how the dynamics described by the series relates to each other. Do they show similar variability or oscillating behavior? Do they differ in some characteristics on the annual, decadal, multidecadal, and centennial, or millennial scale? 

The impacts: The AMOC has been related to paleontological cycles and phenomena, but what these mechanisms are more precisely is unknown. All three time series have been associated with weather phenomena in North Europe and with North European aquatic and terrestrial ecology.

In this Special Issue, we welcome papers that examine the relations between measures of North Atlantic dynamics, both statistically and with models, and we welcome papers that discuss the effects that ocean dynamics have—on all scales—on the climate and the ecology of the North Atlantic.

Prof. Dr. Knut Lehre Seip
Guest Editor

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Keywords

  • climate change
  • mathematical modeling
  • statistics
  • leading and lagging relations
  • rocky shore ecosystems
  • aquatic ecosystems
  • global temperature change
  • macroeconomics
  • decision making

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Published Papers (6 papers)

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Research

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19 pages, 2786 KiB  
Article
The North Atlantic Oscillations: Lead–Lag Relations for the NAO, the AMO, and the AMOC—A High-Resolution Lead–lag Analysis
by Knut Lehre Seip and Hui Wang
Climate 2022, 10(5), 63; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10050063 - 5 May 2022
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 3202
Abstract
Several studies examine cycle periods and the interactions between the three major climate modes over the North Atlantic, namely the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). Here, we use a relatively novel high-resolution [...] Read more.
Several studies examine cycle periods and the interactions between the three major climate modes over the North Atlantic, namely the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). Here, we use a relatively novel high-resolution Lead–lag (LL) method to identify short time windows with persistent LL relations in the three series during the period from 1947 to 2020. We find that there are roughly 20-year time windows where LL relations change direction at both interannual, high-frequency and multidecadal, low-frequency timescales. However, with varying LL strength, the AMO leads AMOC for the full period at the interannual timescale. During the period from 1980 to 2000, we had the sequence NAO→AMO→AMOC→NAO at the interannual timescale. For the full period in the decadal time scale, we obtain NAO→AMO→AMOC. The Ekman variability closely follows the NAO variability. Both single time series and the LL relation between pairs of series show pseudo-oscillating patterns with cycle periods of about 20 years. We list possible mechanisms that contribute to the cyclic behavior, but no conclusive evidence has yet been found. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The North Atlantic Ocean Dynamics and Climate Change)
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21 pages, 24695 KiB  
Article
Exploring AMOC Regime Change over the Past Four Decades through Ocean Reanalyses
by Vincenzo de Toma, Vincenzo Artale and Chunxue Yang
Climate 2022, 10(4), 59; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10040059 - 8 Apr 2022
Viewed by 4604
Abstract
We examine North Atlantic climate variability using an ensemble of ocean reanalysis datasets to study the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) from 1979 to 2018. The dataset intercomparison shows good agreement for the latest period (1995–2018) for AMOC dynamics, characterized by a weaker [...] Read more.
We examine North Atlantic climate variability using an ensemble of ocean reanalysis datasets to study the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) from 1979 to 2018. The dataset intercomparison shows good agreement for the latest period (1995–2018) for AMOC dynamics, characterized by a weaker overturning circulation after 1995 and a more intense one during 1979–1995, with varying intensity across the various datasets. The correlation between leading empirical orthogonal functions suggests that the AMOC weakening has connections with cooler (warmer) sea surface temperature (SST) and lower (higher) ocean heat content in the subpolar (subtropical) gyre in the North Atlantic. Barotropic stream function and Gulf Stream index reveal a shrinking subpolar gyre and an expanding subtropical gyre during the strong-AMOC period and vice versa, consistently with Labrador Sea deep convection reduction. We also observed an east–west salt redistribution between the two periods. Additional analyses show that the AMOC variability is related to the North Atlantic Oscillation phase change around 1995. One of the datasets included in the comparison shows an overestimation of AMOC variability, notwithstanding the model SST bias reduction via ERA-Interim flux adjustments: further studies with a set of numerical experiments will help explain this behavior. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The North Atlantic Ocean Dynamics and Climate Change)
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21 pages, 3857 KiB  
Article
Discontinuities in Wintertime Warming in Northern Europe during 1951–2016
by Mikhail M. Latonin, Vladimir A. Lobanov and Igor L. Bashmachnikov
Climate 2020, 8(6), 80; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8060080 - 21 Jun 2020
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 4137
Abstract
Although there is a general consensus about the trends of current climate change, the North Atlantic region deserves special attention, as it is the key region for many climate processes. The aim of this study is to assess the climatic changes in this [...] Read more.
Although there is a general consensus about the trends of current climate change, the North Atlantic region deserves special attention, as it is the key region for many climate processes. The aim of this study is to assess the climatic changes in this region for the period 1951–2016, based on the analysis of surface air temperature (SAT) observations from weather stations, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Statistical modeling of time series for January, February and March shows a stepwise increase of SAT in Northern Europe in 1987–1989, with the stationarity increasing towards spring. The divided trends of the NAO and SAT indicate a good coherence at the level of climate tendencies. This research reveals the discontinuity of the present-day wintertime warming in Northern Europe, with a warming of about 2 °C after the stepwise jump of the SAT. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The North Atlantic Ocean Dynamics and Climate Change)
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18 pages, 8806 KiB  
Article
Implications of Winter NAO Flavors on Present and Future European Climate
by Efi Rousi, Henning W. Rust, Uwe Ulbrich and Christina Anagnostopoulou
Climate 2020, 8(1), 13; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010013 - 14 Jan 2020
Cited by 30 | Viewed by 7321
Abstract
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a basic variability mode in the Northern Hemisphere, undergoes changes in its temporal and spatial characteristics, with significant implications on European climate. In this paper, different NAO flavors are distinguished for winter in simulations of a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean [...] Read more.
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a basic variability mode in the Northern Hemisphere, undergoes changes in its temporal and spatial characteristics, with significant implications on European climate. In this paper, different NAO flavors are distinguished for winter in simulations of a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean GCM, using Self-Organizing Maps, a topology preserving clustering algorithm. These flavors refer to various sub-forms of the NAO pattern, reflecting the range of positions occupied by its action centers, the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. After having defined the NAO flavors, composites of winter temperature and precipitation over Europe are created for each one of them. The results reveal significant differences between NAO flavors in terms of their effects on the European climate. Generally, the eastwardly shifted NAO patterns induce a stronger than average influence on European temperatures. In contrast, the effects of NAO flavors on European precipitation anomalies are less coherent, with various areas responding differently. These results confirm that not only the temporal, but also the spatial variability of NAO is important in regulating European climate. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The North Atlantic Ocean Dynamics and Climate Change)
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16 pages, 3118 KiB  
Article
Atmospheric and Ocean Dynamics May Explain Cycles in Oceanic Oscillations
by Knut L. Seip and Øyvind Grøn
Climate 2019, 7(6), 77; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7060077 - 29 May 2019
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 3488
Abstract
What causes cycles in oceanic oscillations, and is there a change in the characteristics of oscillations in around 1950? Characteristics of oceanic cycles and their sources are important for climate predictability. We here compare cycles generated in a simple model with observed oceanic [...] Read more.
What causes cycles in oceanic oscillations, and is there a change in the characteristics of oscillations in around 1950? Characteristics of oceanic cycles and their sources are important for climate predictability. We here compare cycles generated in a simple model with observed oceanic cycles in the great oceans: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In the model, we let a stochastic movement in one oceanic oscillation cause a similar but lagging movement in another oceanic oscillation. The two interacting oscillations show distinct cycle lengths depending upon how strongly one oscillation creates lagging cycles in the other. The model and observations both show cycles around two to six, 13 to 16, 22 to 23, and 31 to 32 years. The ultimate cause for the distinct cycles is atmospheric and oceanic “bridges” that connect the ocean basins, but the distinct pattern in cycle lengths is determined by properties of statistical distributions. We found no differences in the leading or lagging strength between well separated basins (the North Atlantic and the Pacific) and overlapping ocean basins (both in the Pacific). The cyclic pattern before 1950 appears to be different from the cyclic pattern after 1950. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The North Atlantic Ocean Dynamics and Climate Change)
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Review

Jump to: Research

9 pages, 191 KiB  
Review
A Review of Ocean Dynamics in the North Atlantic: Achievements and Challenges
by Knut Lehre Seip
Climate 2020, 8(4), 49; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8040049 - 30 Mar 2020
Viewed by 3282
Abstract
I address 12 issues related to the study of ocean dynamics and its impact on global temperature change, regional and local climate change, and on the North Atlantic ecosystem. I outline the present achievements and challenges that lie ahead. I start with observations [...] Read more.
I address 12 issues related to the study of ocean dynamics and its impact on global temperature change, regional and local climate change, and on the North Atlantic ecosystem. I outline the present achievements and challenges that lie ahead. I start with observations and methods to extend the observations of ocean oscillations over time and end with challenges to find connections between ocean dynamics in the North Atlantic and dynamics in other parts of the globe. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The North Atlantic Ocean Dynamics and Climate Change)
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