Economies

22 pages, 1309 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Pathways to Progress: Unveiling Structural Change in Africa Through Economic Transformation, Technology, Talent, and Tourism

by Hugo Pinto, Evans Odoi, Carla Nogueira and Luiz Fernando Câmara Viana

Economies 2025, 13(1), 21; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010021 - 15 Jan 2025

Viewed by 680

Abstract

African economies are undergoing significant structural transformation, transitioning from agriculture to manufacturing, services, and technology-driven industries. Driven by urbanization, technological innovation, and global trade, this shift offers opportunities for sustainable growth but faces challenges such as infrastructure gaps and institutional hurdles. This paper [...] Read more.

African economies are undergoing significant structural transformation, transitioning from agriculture to manufacturing, services, and technology-driven industries. Driven by urbanization, technological innovation, and global trade, this shift offers opportunities for sustainable growth but faces challenges such as infrastructure gaps and institutional hurdles. This paper examines the dynamics of structural change in 54 African countries, focusing on the roles of technology, talent, and tourism. Using World Bank data, factor and cluster analyses reveal five latent components: structural conditions, public sector capacities, dynamic conditions, urbanization, and growth. The analysis categorizes countries into six clusters, from Developing Economies to African Powerhouses. The findings emphasize the critical role of technology in boosting productivity, the importance of talent development through education and workforce integration, and the potential of sustainable tourism to drive transformation. This research provides a comprehensive framework for understanding Africa’s structural transformation, offering actionable insights to address disparities and promote equitable development across the continent. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Economic Development)

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30 pages, 791 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Disentangling the Pros and Cons of Flexible Work Arrangements: Curvilinear Effects on Individual and Organizational Outcomes

by Laura Petitta and Valerio Ghezzi

Economies 2025, 13(1), 20; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010020 - 15 Jan 2025

Viewed by 973

Abstract

The use of flexible work arrangements (e.g., remote, hybrid) has spread during the pandemic and cumulative studies provide mixed findings on the positive vs. negative consequences of these working methods for employees and organizations. The present study examined the potentially curvilinear effects of [...] Read more.

The use of flexible work arrangements (e.g., remote, hybrid) has spread during the pandemic and cumulative studies provide mixed findings on the positive vs. negative consequences of these working methods for employees and organizations. The present study examined the potentially curvilinear effects of employees’ attitude towards flexible work options (i.e., flexible work orientation; FWO) on individual- (i.e., performance, job satisfaction, stress, work-to-family conflict, family-to-work conflict) and organization-related outcomes (i.e., organizational social support, organizational justice, affective organizational commitment). Anonymous survey data were collected in 2021 from 1061 in-person and flexible workers nested within 100 Italian organizations. Measurement invariance across the two subsamples was supported and subsequent structural model analyses suggested a differential pattern of results for in-person and flexible workers. Results indicated a curvilinear U-shaped relationship between FWO and organizational support, justice, commitment and job satisfaction for the in-person subsample as compared to a positive linear relationship for flexible workers. Moreover, in both samples of flexible and in-presence workers, FWO exerted a positive linear effect on performance and a mainly negative linear effect on stress, WFC and FWC. Overall, flexible workers displayed linear relationships among all the study variables, whereas in-person workers showed the curvilinear effects of FWO on support, justice, commitment and satisfaction, all of which increased at high levels of employees’ positive attitude towards FWO. Results are discussed in light of the globally elevated rates of flexible work arrangements and mixed findings on their implementation. Full article

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17 pages, 1332 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Efficacy of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Economic Growth: Evidence from Thailand

by Pathairat Pastpipatkul and Htwe Ko

Economies 2025, 13(1), 19; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010019 - 15 Jan 2025

Viewed by 541

Abstract

This study empirically explores the dynamic effect of MP and FP on the economic growth of Thailand from Q1:2003 to Q2:2024. In this study, data analysis was conducted using an advanced sequence of the econometric modeling approach to guarantee that the estimated results [...] Read more.

This study empirically explores the dynamic effect of MP and FP on the economic growth of Thailand from Q1:2003 to Q2:2024. In this study, data analysis was conducted using an advanced sequence of the econometric modeling approach to guarantee that the estimated results were more consistent and reliable. First, we used Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) and Bayesian variable selection (BASAD) methods to determine macro factors with the highest probabilities influencing growth, in addition to monetary and fiscal policy tools during the studied periods. Second, we used the time-varying coefficients seemingly unrelated equation (TVSURE) model to examine the economic impact of MP and FP. Last, we also employed the Markov switching regression (MSR) model not only to support the findings from the TVSURE model but also to propose policy recommendations based on regime durations and transitions tempted by MP and FP. The main results from both TVSURE and MSR reveal the following: (1) MP is more consistent with expected growth outcomes while FP is stronger when localized, (2) MP is more effective in sustaining long periods of high growth, (3) FP is significantly stronger in recovering from recessions, and (4) the coordination of MP and FP has a similar performance to MP alone but with shorter transition periods. This study makes an empirical contribution to the ongoing debate on the effectiveness of MP and FP in boosting growth and aiding in the recovery from recessions in the case of Thailand. In addition, this study not only acknowledged certain limitations but also recommended policies to sustain the Thai economy. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Studies on Factors Affecting Economic Growth)

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29 pages, 1007 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Mediating Effects of Foreign Direct Investment Inflows on Carbon Dioxide Emissions

by Prajukta Tripathy, Mohsen Brahmi, Baiju Pallayil and Bikash Ranjan Mishra

Economies 2025, 13(1), 18; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010018 - 12 Jan 2025

Viewed by 546

Abstract

In this research, the direct and indirect effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in India are examined, covering the period from 1980 to 2014. To quantify the indirect outcome of the existence of FDI on [...] Read more.

In this research, the direct and indirect effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in India are examined, covering the period from 1980 to 2014. To quantify the indirect outcome of the existence of FDI on CO₂ emissions, in this study, the three mediating channels of FDI are considered. The three broad mediating channels of FDI inflows are energy structure, industrial structure, and high-carbon technology, by which foreign direct investments affect India’s carbon dioxide emissions. In this study, the unit root test, the Johansen cointegration, the Granger causality technique, and the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) are used for the empirical analysis. The findings discover a process of cointegration in the long-run and reveal unidirectional causation between FDI inflows and CO₂ emissions. The outcomes of the SUR estimation indicate that all the mediating factors substantially contribute to the level of CO₂ emissions. In this paper, the findings reveal that FDI inflows affect the level of India’s CO₂ emissions mainly via mediating factors compared to their direct effect. Finally, in this research, it is recommended that the concerned authorities should prioritize the redistribution of foreign direct investment from high carbon-intensive technologies to less carbon-intensive and cleaner technologies for India’s carbonless and sustainable future. Full article

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16 pages, 401 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Predicting Convergence of Per Capita Income in Spain: A Markov and Cluster Approach

by José F. Gálvez-Rodríguez, Miguel Manzano-Hidalgo and Amelia V. García-Luengo

Economies 2025, 13(1), 17; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010017 - 11 Jan 2025

Viewed by 473

Abstract

In this work we analyze the evolution of productivity, in terms of the convergence of per capita income, of all the Spanish provinces, based on data from the previous decade. On the one hand, a cluster analysis allows us to group the Spanish [...] Read more.

In this work we analyze the evolution of productivity, in terms of the convergence of per capita income, of all the Spanish provinces, based on data from the previous decade. On the one hand, a cluster analysis allows us to group the Spanish provinces according to four income levels (low, medium-low, medium-high and high), which can be determined from the quartiles of the distribution, and, on the other hand, Markov chains make it possible to study the long-term evolution of productivity and convergence between the provinces, as well as the speed of convergence towards the equilibrium situation. Moreover, we can obtain the average time to return to an income level in which a province was previously. With the above, predictions of future income levels are made for the provinces, both in the current situation, and if the pandemic caused by COVID-19 had not existed, which leads us to evaluate the impact of the health emergency. Full article

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27 pages, 1844 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Shipyard Manpower Digital Recruitment: A Data-Driven Approach for Norwegian Stakeholders

by Bogdan Florian Socoliuc, Andrei Alexandru Suciu, Mădălina Ecaterina Popescu, Doru Alexandru Plesea and Florin Nicolae

Economies 2025, 13(1), 16; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010016 - 11 Jan 2025

Viewed by 637

Abstract

This study examines the effectiveness of digital recruitment platforms in addressing labor shortages within Norway’s shipbuilding and ship-repair industry. Through a data analysis of 446 job applications over a 12-month period, this study evaluates key recruitment metrics, including application response times (ARTs), candidate [...] Read more.

This study examines the effectiveness of digital recruitment platforms in addressing labor shortages within Norway’s shipbuilding and ship-repair industry. Through a data analysis of 446 job applications over a 12-month period, this study evaluates key recruitment metrics, including application response times (ARTs), candidate acceptance rates (CARs), and the impact of machine learning on hiring outcomes. The findings reveal that specialized digital platforms can significantly improve recruitment efficiency, with 70% of applications being received within 24 h, highlighting the platforms’s great potential for time-sensitive sectors. Additionally, pre-vetting candidates enhances hiring precision, achieving a CAR of 90% and reducing mismatches. The application of machine learning algorithms provides predictive insights that support real-time adjustments to job postings, optimizing recruitment strategies. This study contributes uniquely to the literature on cross-border digital recruitment, aligning with the European Union goals of sustainable labor mobility and economic resilience. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue From Permacrisis to Technological Breakthrough: Prospects for the Global Economy Post-COVID-19)

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31 pages, 48046 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Identification and Visualization of Clusters Using Network Theory Methods: The Case of the Greek Production System

by Dimitris Foutakis

Economies 2025, 13(1), 15; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010015 - 11 Jan 2025

Viewed by 673

Abstract

The interest in clusters in the economy and regional space, which has persisted for nearly three decades, has reignited the understanding of the economy as a system of interdependencies between industries. Although the concept of clusters can be traced back to contributions dating [...] Read more.

The interest in clusters in the economy and regional space, which has persisted for nearly three decades, has reignited the understanding of the economy as a system of interdependencies between industries. Although the concept of clusters can be traced back to contributions dating from the early 20th century, they have become a central focus of regional development policies in recent decades, as they have been linked to enhancements of innovation, the knowledge economy, and ultimately, territorial competitiveness. Arguably, the most effective and comprehensive way to present the systemic nature of the economy is through input–output tables. The main feature of these tables, on which this work is based, is that they describe the relationships and flows between industries (or products) during the production process. These fundamental relationships among the industries in the production system are depicted in the inter-industry (and intra-industry) transaction matrix of an economy’s input–output tables. To analyze these relationships, we use network theory, in the context of which the transaction matrix can be seen as the adjacency matrix of a directed, weighted graph (or network) with loops. In this study, clusters are identified for the case of Greece, using two different approaches based on the modularity of the network, utilizing the 2010 input–output tables for this country. As a result, five clusters of industries that structure the country’s production system across 62 industries are identified, which are also presented through graphical visualizations. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Complex Networks on Macroeconomics and Finance: Models, Methods, Applications)

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14 pages, 2382 KiB

Open AccessArticle

State-Dependent Phillips Curve

by Hyun Hak Kim and Na Kyeong Lee

Economies 2025, 13(1), 14; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010014 - 9 Jan 2025

Viewed by 449

Abstract

We propose a state-dependent Phillips curve (PC) where the regime has changed endogenously. Using this framework, a free-standing PC is constructed. This study tests the robustness of the model, various types of inflation, slack measures, and various expectation measures. The PC is found [...] Read more.

We propose a state-dependent Phillips curve (PC) where the regime has changed endogenously. Using this framework, a free-standing PC is constructed. This study tests the robustness of the model, various types of inflation, slack measures, and various expectation measures. The PC is found to work strongly during recessionary periods but becomes weaker once an economy recovers. The latent factors that determine the regimes are highly correlated with the uncertainty measure. During recessionary periods, the uncertainty becomes negatively more certain and strengthens the relationship between inflation and labor market slack. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, and Financial Markets)

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17 pages, 2677 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Role of Livelihood Assets in Affecting Community Adaptive Capacity in Facing Shocks in Karangrejo Village, Indonesia

by Gunawan Prayitno, Aidha Auliah, Achmad Efendi, Ainul Hayat, Aris Subagiyo and Aulia Putri Salsabila

Economies 2025, 13(1), 13; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010013 - 8 Jan 2025

Viewed by 407

Abstract

This study addresses a theoretical gap by examining how multiple livelihood assets collectively enhance rural communities’ adaptive capacity and contribute to rural resilience theory. Using structural equation modeling, data were collected from June to August 2024 from 372 randomly selected households in Karangrejo [...] Read more.

This study addresses a theoretical gap by examining how multiple livelihood assets collectively enhance rural communities’ adaptive capacity and contribute to rural resilience theory. Using structural equation modeling, data were collected from June to August 2024 from 372 randomly selected households in Karangrejo Village, Indonesia, to test whether livelihood assets significantly influence adaptive capacity in response to diverse economic, social, and environmental shocks. The findings reveal that human, natural, physical, and social capital show a strong, positive effect on adaptive capacity, whereas financial capital alone does not significantly enhance resilience. Despite the limited geographic scope, the results underscore that comprehensive asset combinations—rather than reliance on a single form of capital—strengthen a community’s capacity to withstand shocks. This integrated perspective suggests that balanced investments across multiple forms of capital foster sustainable and flexible adaptation strategies, enabling communities to navigate uncertainty and maintain stability. The study highlights the critical importance of diversifying livelihood assets to foster long-term rural resilience and improve quality of life, offering practical insights for policymakers, practitioners, and researchers in developing holistic interventions that support adaptive capacity. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Human–Environmental Relations: Ecotourism and Sustainability)

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17 pages, 658 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Hayekian Hurdles: Challenges to Cryptocurrency as a Viable Basis for a New Monetary Order

by Luís Pedro Freitas, Jorge Cerdeira and Diogo Lourenço

Economies 2025, 13(1), 12; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010012 - 7 Jan 2025

Viewed by 753

Abstract

The rise of cryptocurrencies over the past decade has promised to challenge the dominance of fiat money systems and reshape monetary policy. However, recent developments, including market volatility and the collapse of key exchanges like FTX, have eroded public trust, raising skepticism of [...] Read more.

The rise of cryptocurrencies over the past decade has promised to challenge the dominance of fiat money systems and reshape monetary policy. However, recent developments, including market volatility and the collapse of key exchanges like FTX, have eroded public trust, raising skepticism of a feasible transition to a crypto-based monetary system. This paper explores why cryptocurrencies have not met the expectations of their proponents, particularly those who saw them as a step towards Friedrich Hayek’s vision for competitive currency issuance. While cryptocurrencies reflect some aspects of Hayek’s model, their instability—especially in Bitcoin-like assets—undermines their role as a reliable alternative to fiat money. The paper also considers how central bank independence and regulatory gaps further hinder the development of a robust cryptocurrency framework. Despite the continued relevance of Hayek’s ideas in today’s monetary landscape, the entrenched structures of modern central banks and the rise of Central Bank Digital Currencies suggest that a decentralised currency order remains unlikely in the near future. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Political Economy of Money)

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28 pages, 3250 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Dynamic Spillovers of Economic Policy Uncertainty: A TVP-VAR Analysis of Latin American and Global EPU Indices

by Nini Johana Marín-Rodríguez, Juan David González-Ruíz and Sergio Botero

Economies 2025, 13(1), 11; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010011 - 7 Jan 2025

Viewed by 727

Abstract

This study examines the dynamic interconnectedness of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) among Latin American economies—Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico—and significant international regions, including the United States, Europe, and Japan, as well as a global EPU index. Using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) [...] Read more.

This study examines the dynamic interconnectedness of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) among Latin American economies—Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico—and significant international regions, including the United States, Europe, and Japan, as well as a global EPU index. Using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with monthly data, this study reveals the evolving spillover effects and dependencies capturing how uncertainty in one market can transmit across others on both regional and global scales. The findings highlight the significant impact of external EPU, particularly from the U.S. and global EPU sources on Latin America, positioning it as a primary recipient of international uncertainty. These results underscore the need for Latin American economies to adopt resilience strategies—such as trade diversification and regional cooperation—to mitigate vulnerabilities to global shocks. This study offers valuable insights into the mechanisms of economic uncertainty transmission, guiding policymakers in developing coordinated responses to reduce the effects of external volatility and foster regional economic stability. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Financial Market Volatility under Uncertainty)

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19 pages, 664 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Does Investor Sentiment Influence South African ETF Flows During Different Market Conditions?

by Paidamoyo Aurleen Shenjere, Sune Ferreira-Schenk and Fabian Moodley

Economies 2025, 13(1), 10; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010010 - 7 Jan 2025

Viewed by 762

Abstract

The exponential growth in popularity of ETFs over the last three decades has solidified ETFs as an essential component of many investors’ portfolios. Investor sentiment is one of the factors that influence market returns of ETFs during times of market volatility. This article [...] Read more.

The exponential growth in popularity of ETFs over the last three decades has solidified ETFs as an essential component of many investors’ portfolios. Investor sentiment is one of the factors that influence market returns of ETFs during times of market volatility. This article highlights the gap in the literature by examining the role sentiment plays in ETF volatility and providing a more comprehensive understanding of how sentiment interacts with market conditions to affect ETF pricing in the South African context. This article aims to determine the effect of investor sentiment on JSE-listed ETF returns under changing market conditions. The study followed a quantitative methodology using monthly closing prices of seven JSE ETFs and an investor sentiment index. A sample period from October 2008 to December 2023 was used. For a more complex understanding of how sentiment evolved and influenced market regimes, the Markov regime-switching model was integrated with Principal Component Analysis. The results found that investor sentiment had a significant impact on most of the ETFs in both the bull and bear regimes. The bull market was more dominant than the bear market across the ETF returns. Therefore, investor sentiment affected the returns of JSE ETFs. Identifying the effect of investor sentiment on ETFs results in ETF portfolios being less affected by changing market conditions by using risk management techniques and diversifying across asset classes and investing methods. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, and Financial Markets)

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20 pages, 737 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Currencies Come and Go, But Employment Always Takes Root: Rethinking External Constraints and Monetary Sovereignty in the Periphery

by Esteban Cruz-Hidalgo, Stuart Medina-Miltimore and Agustín Mario

Economies 2025, 13(1), 9; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010009 - 4 Jan 2025

Viewed by 1115

Abstract

This paper explores a development strategy for peripheral economies by advocating for a paradigm shift from traditional economic models that rely on accumulating foreign reserves. It proposes the job guarantee (JG) policy, an automatic stabilizer based on a reserve pool of employed individuals, [...] Read more.

This paper explores a development strategy for peripheral economies by advocating for a paradigm shift from traditional economic models that rely on accumulating foreign reserves. It proposes the job guarantee (JG) policy, an automatic stabilizer based on a reserve pool of employed individuals, as a cornerstone for fostering sustainable and inclusive growth. Grounded in modern monetary theory (MMT), this study critiques the conventional approach that prioritizes external reserves and highlights the potential of MMT in offering a more autonomous development path for developing countries. A systematic review of the literature, using the PRISMA methodology, reveals significant divergence between MMT advocates and critics, particularly regarding monetary sovereignty and the feasibility of implementing macroeconomic policies in peripheral economies. This study emphasizes that while external constraints remain, the MMT perspective calls for flexible exchange rates, low interest rates, and capital controls as part of a broader strategy to reduce dependency on foreign currencies. The proposed approach prioritizes full employment, the mobilization of domestic resources, and structural transformation through policies like import substitution. Although the shift may involve the slower accumulation of capital, it offers a more equitable and stable development path. Ultimately, this analysis underscores the potential of MMT to expand the external constraint and enable sustainable development, despite challenges in implementation and political resistance. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Political Economy of Money)

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16 pages, 2393 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Dynamics Between Foreign Portfolio Investment, Stock Price and Financial Development in South Africa: A SVAR Approach

by Kazeem Abimbola Sanusi and Zandri Dickason-Koekemoer

Economies 2025, 13(1), 8; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010008 - 3 Jan 2025

Viewed by 509

Abstract

The goal of this study is to look into the dynamic relationship between stock prices, foreign portfolio investment, and financial development in the South African economy. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) provided quarterly time series data from 1960 (Q1) to 2024 (Q2). This [...] Read more.

The goal of this study is to look into the dynamic relationship between stock prices, foreign portfolio investment, and financial development in the South African economy. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) provided quarterly time series data from 1960 (Q1) to 2024 (Q2). This study uses a structural VAR estimation approach and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC GARCH model). The DCC GARCH approach displays time-varying correlations between stock prices, credit given to the private sector as a measure of financial growth, and foreign portfolio investments. The dynamic links between stock prices, financial development, and foreign private investment (FPI) are examined using the SVAR technique. Our findings show that a financial development shock encourages and provokes a substantial influx of foreign portfolio investment into the South African economy. This suggests that overseas portfolio investments react favorably and notably well to favorable shocks in the financial development process. We suggest that a stable financial system framework and lower credit costs would strengthen the impact of higher stock prices on private sector credit and guarantee that higher stock prices have a beneficial impact on other financial development metrics. Better financial development metrics, such as credit to the private sector, will therefore increase foreign portfolio investment. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Efficiency and Anomalies in Emerging Stock Markets)

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23 pages, 3388 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Food Insecurity and Coping Strategies in War-Affected Urban Settings of Tigray, Ethiopia

by Hafte Gebreselassie Gebrihet, Yibrah Hagos Gebresilassie and Mekonen Aregai Gebreselassie

Economies 2025, 13(1), 7; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010007 - 1 Jan 2025

Viewed by 1069

Abstract

Armed conflict remains a significant global issue, with several studies highlighting its detrimental impact on the affected communities, making it a critical area of research. This study aimed to examine the effects of prolonged armed conflict on food security among urban households in [...] Read more.

Armed conflict remains a significant global issue, with several studies highlighting its detrimental impact on the affected communities, making it a critical area of research. This study aimed to examine the effects of prolonged armed conflict on food security among urban households in Tigray, Ethiopia, and to examine their coping mechanisms. Primary data were collected from 740 urban households between May and June 2024. The Food Insecurity Access Scale (FIAS), Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES), and Food Consumption Score (FCS) were employed to assess the levels of food security, while the Livelihood Coping Strategy Index (LCSI) was used to identify coping strategies. The findings revealed that female-headed households were more affected by food insecurity than male-headed households. FIAS (FIES) scores indicated that 17% (2%) of households were food-secure, with 20% (25%) mildly, 35% (32%) moderately, and 29% (30%) severely food-insecure. The FCS analysis showed that 52% of households had poor food consumption, 33% were borderline, and 16% were acceptable. The findings show that 39% of urban households experienced hunger in the post-conflict period. Stress-level strategies are the most widely adopted coping mechanisms. These findings underscore the urgent need for targeted policy interventions that address the specific vulnerabilities of female-headed households and ensure the development of sustainable coping strategies to mitigate the long-term effects of food insecurity in war-affected urban settings. This study offers novel insights into the urban dimensions of food insecurity and coping strategies in post-conflict settings. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Food Security and Healthy Nutrition)

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28 pages, 1540 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Integrating Macroeconomic and Technical Indicators into Forecasting the Stock Market: A Data-Driven Approach

by Saima Latif, Faheem Aslam, Paulo Ferreira and Sohail Iqbal

Economies 2025, 13(1), 6; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010006 - 31 Dec 2024

Viewed by 941

Abstract

Forecasting stock markets is challenging due to the influence of various internal and external factors compounded by the effects of globalization. This study introduces a data-driven approach to forecast S&P 500 returns by incorporating macroeconomic indicators including gold and oil prices, the volatility [...] Read more.

Forecasting stock markets is challenging due to the influence of various internal and external factors compounded by the effects of globalization. This study introduces a data-driven approach to forecast S&P 500 returns by incorporating macroeconomic indicators including gold and oil prices, the volatility index, economic policy uncertainty, the financial stress index, geopolitical risk, and shadow short rate, with ten technical indicators. We propose three hybrid deep learning models that sequentially combine convolutional and recurrent neural networks for improved feature extraction and predictive accuracy. These models include the deep belief network with gated recurrent units, the LeNet architecture with gated recurrent units, and the LeNet architecture combined with highway networks. The results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid models achieve higher forecasting accuracy than the single deep learning models. This outcome is attributed to the complementary strengths of convolutional networks in feature extraction and recurrent networks in pattern recognition. Additionally, an analysis using the Shapley method identifies the volatility index, financial stress index, and economic policy uncertainty as the most significant predictors, underscoring the effectiveness of our data-driven approach. These findings highlight the substantial impact of contemporary uncertainty factors on stock markets, emphasizing their importance in studies analyzing market behaviour. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Financial Market Volatility under Uncertainty)

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30 pages, 312 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Can the Succession Plan for Family Business Achieve Social Employment Stability? An Analysis from the Perspective of Entrepreneurs

by Hongmei Zhang, Mu Xing and Dong Chen

Economies 2025, 13(1), 5; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010005 - 31 Dec 2024

Viewed by 684

Abstract

Employment stability is crucial to social harmony and individual well-being. This study empirically analyzes whether the succession plan adopted by a family business can achieve the goal of stable employment and explores potential mechanisms at the individual level of entrepreneurs. This paper takes [...] Read more.

Employment stability is crucial to social harmony and individual well-being. This study empirically analyzes whether the succession plan adopted by a family business can achieve the goal of stable employment and explores potential mechanisms at the individual level of entrepreneurs. This paper takes the data from the latest Chinese Private Enterprise Survey as the research sample and employs OLS regression to empirically analyze the impact of family business succession plans on employee employment. The study finds that the succession plan can significantly increase the employment scale of a family business. The pathway mechanism indicates that the employment promotion effect is achieved by enhancing entrepreneurial responsibility and prospect perception. Additionally, when a training method involving different positions within the company is adopted, the succession plan has a more substantial promotion effect on labor employment. Finally, this study analyzes the impacts of the succession plan from three aspects: flexible employment forms, wage income levels, and employee recruitment preferences. Previous studies have not explored whether family enterprises’ formulation of a succession plan will affect social employment. By addressing this issue, new micro-level evidence is provided for further understanding of the relationship between family enterprises and the labor market. Full article

22 pages, 1278 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Non-Monotonic Relationship Between Income and Life Insurance Demand: A Case Study of Forty-One Countries

by Kristio Rapi, Dominicus S. Priyarsono, Siti Jahroh and Toni Bakhtiar

Economies 2025, 13(1), 4; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010004 - 31 Dec 2024

Viewed by 548

Abstract

Income is often viewed as the main determinant of life insurance demand. However, in the last two decades, the world’s life insurance penetration has continued to decrease even as income grows. This study investigates the relationship between income and life insurance demand using [...] Read more.

Income is often viewed as the main determinant of life insurance demand. However, in the last two decades, the world’s life insurance penetration has continued to decrease even as income grows. This study investigates the relationship between income and life insurance demand using panel data from forty-one countries from 2013 to 2022, along with education and life expectancy as control variables. The study finds a non-monotonic relationship between income and life insurance penetration and between education and life insurance penetration, while life expectancy shows a monotonic relationship with life insurance penetration. This study provides significant policy implications for insurers to predict life insurance demand and suggests that non-high-income countries emphasize the improvement of their life insurance sector development. Full article

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30 pages, 7621 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Approaches to Prognosing the European Economic Crisis Through a New Economic–Financial Risk Sensitivity Model

by Monica Laura Zlati, Costinela Fortea, Alina Meca and Valentin Marian Antohi

Economies 2025, 13(1), 3; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010003 - 31 Dec 2024

Viewed by 680

Abstract

This paper presents a novel approach to prognosing European economic crises through the development of an economic–financial risk sensitivity model. The model integrates key macroeconomic indicators such as government deficit (NETGDP), GINI coefficient, social protection expenditure (ExSocP), unemployment rate (UNE), research and development [...] Read more.

This paper presents a novel approach to prognosing European economic crises through the development of an economic–financial risk sensitivity model. The model integrates key macroeconomic indicators such as government deficit (NETGDP), GINI coefficient, social protection expenditure (ExSocP), unemployment rate (UNE), research and development spending (RDGDP), and tax structures (TXSwoSC), assessing their role in predicting economic vulnerability across European countries. By applying the Kruskal–Wallis non-parametric test on data from 324 observations across multiple countries, significant differences were identified in the distribution of these variables. The results show that government policies related to social protection, R&D, and taxation play an important role in a country’s resilience to economic shocks. On the other hand, indicators such as income inequality and unemployment exhibit less variation, reflecting global economic conditions. The model provides a comprehensive risk assessment framework, allowing for the early detection of potential economic crises and guiding policy adjustments to mitigate risks. This methodology offers valuable insights into the sensitivity of European economies to financial disruptions, emphasizing the importance of fiscal policies and social expenditure in maintaining economic stability. Full article

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23 pages, 1001 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Effect of the Cash Support from the Vision Umurenge Programme on Household Financial Behaviour in Rwanda: The Case of Direct Support (DS)

by Emmanuel Munyemana, Charles Ruranga and Joseph K. Mung’atu

Economies 2025, 13(1), 2; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010002 - 28 Dec 2024

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Abstract

This study aims to quantify the extent to which poor households receiving cash support from the Vision Umurenge Programme (VUP) allocate their income across major spending categories, mainly consumption, savings, household-level investment, and cash transfers for community participation. The analysis utilises a nationally [...] Read more.

This study aims to quantify the extent to which poor households receiving cash support from the Vision Umurenge Programme (VUP) allocate their income across major spending categories, mainly consumption, savings, household-level investment, and cash transfers for community participation. The analysis utilises a nationally representative panel dataset of 1642 respondents, collected between 2013 and 2017. A Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM) approach was employed to model four financial behaviours: (i) saving, (ii) consumption, (iii) investment, and (iv) social transfers as a proxy for community participation. The independent variables include the monetary benefits received by individuals over different periods, alongside demographic characteristics such as gender, age, education level, and area of residence (rural–urban), which were controlled in the analysis. The findings reveal a positive and statistically significant effect of the direct cash support provided by the VUP on increased consumption, and marginal effects on individual savings and investment behaviours. However, the data do not provide sufficient evidence to conclusively establish a relationship between participation in the VUP and cash transfers for community participation. The study recommends the intensification of efforts to engage in saving as way to build resilience, and further suggest a periodic increase in the VUP benefits’ size to cushion inflation effects. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Economic Development)

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23 pages, 1442 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Tariff Liberalisation Policy Nexus with Non-Tariff Measures: Panel Model Evidence in the SA–EU Fruit Products Trade

by Chiedza L. Muchopa

Economies 2025, 13(1), 1; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010001 - 25 Dec 2024

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Abstract

Higher levels of quota granted can induce and increase exports, but the impact is not the same across all tariff lines. Answers are sought to the question of how the level of exports changes as the quota size of tariff rate quotas changes, [...] Read more.

Higher levels of quota granted can induce and increase exports, but the impact is not the same across all tariff lines. Answers are sought to the question of how the level of exports changes as the quota size of tariff rate quotas changes, thus enabling the investigation of whether unilateral quotas granted to South Africa by the European Union have influenced fruit products’ export flows in the presence of non-tariff measures. Drawing on panel data regression techniques, this study observes five fruit products’ tariff rate quotas repeatedly from 2004 to 2021. It also incorporates a variable to capture non-tariff measures based on the data from the WTO I-TIP database. The findings indicate a positive relationship between quota size and exports, further showing that for a given quota size, the increase in exports is small in the presence of non-tariff measures. These findings draw attention to future trade reforms that focus on seeking the expansion of quota size for the most productive tariff lines in terms of export growth while aiming for the simultaneous reduction of non-tariff measures and tariff rates. Full article

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Economies, Volume 13, Issue 1 (January 2025) – 21 articles

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