GeoHazards, Volume 5, Issue 3 (September 2024) – 19 articles

The Global Historical Megatsunamis Catalog (GHMCat) is presented for the first time, including events with the largest waves recorded in historical times. An objective criterion is established to identify megatsunamis based on the maximum wave height (runup) of all recorded events. A threshold value of 35 m for maximum wave height is proposed based on the analysis of the statistical distribution of the maximum wave heights documented. The catalog was compiled through a systematic review and verification of tsunami events from the two existing Global Historical Tsunami Databases (GHTDs). A list of 40 megatsunamis from 1674 to the present is presented, including descriptions of their maximum wave heights, causes and sources according to the available and verified information, along with the main bibliographical references that support the data gathered in the catalog. The majority of megatsunamis have originated from large landslides, predominantly subaerial, with fewer caused by submarine landslides or associated with volcanic explosions. The geographical distribution of source locations shows that megatsunamis most frequently occur in bays and fjords in glaciated areas and in inland bodies of water, such as lakes and rivers. Notably, certain regions of Alaska and Norway experienced an unusual frequency of megatsunamis, particularly in the early 20th century. The information provided by the GHMCat allows for a comprehensive historical overview of megatsunamis, establishing relationships between their causes, wave heights, and geographic distribution over the past 350 years. This may contribute to advancing the study of the causes and origins of megatsunamis and aid in their prevention in high-risk regions. Full article

The 1755 Lisbon earthquake holds significant historical importance in Portuguese history. The subsequent tsunami resulted in extensive destruction and damage, affecting not only Lisbon but also other regions of Portugal, Spain, and North Africa. This significant and hazardous event led to an increase in awareness about earthquake and tsunami risks, not only within Portugal but throughout Europe. This heightened awareness facilitated advancements in scientific developments, including design codes, standards, and earthquake engineering. However, recent studies focusing on hazard assessment for Lisbon are limited. For this reason, this paper aims to present a comprehensive probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the Lisbon metropolitan area. The first stage of PSHA involves defining applicable and active seismic source models (area and line sources) within the study area. Subsequently, historical and instrumental earthquake records are collected to build a homogenized earthquake catalog, utilizing both global and local earthquake databases. Following this, the completeness level of the earthquake catalog is tested. By incorporating suitable ground motion models to the region and local soil characteristics, seismic hazard maps for various return periods and hazard curves in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) are developed. The findings based on the area source model agree with existing literature, indicating PGA values ranging from 0.3 g to 0.9 g, 0.2 g to 0.7 g, 0.2 g to 0.5 g, and 0.1 g to 0.3 g for return periods of 2475, 975, 475, and 50 years, respectively. Full article

In slopes where high pore water pressure exists, deep counterfort drains (also called drainage trenches or trench drains) represent one of the most effective methods for improving stability or mitigating landslide risks. In the cases of deep or very deep slip surfaces, this method represents the only possible intervention. Trench drains can be realized by using panels or secant piles filled with coarse granular material or permeable concrete. If the trenches are adequately “socket” into the stable ground (for example sufficiently below the sliding surface of a landslide or below the critical slip surface of marginally stable slopes) and the filling material has sufficient shear strength and stiffness, like porous concrete, there is a further increase in shear strength due to the “shear keys” effect. The increase in shear strength is due both to the intrinsic resistance of the concrete on the sliding surface and the resistance at the concrete–soil interface (on the lateral surface of the trench). The latter can be very significant in relation to the thickness of the sliding mass, the “socket depth”, and the spacing between the trenches. The increase in shear strength linked to the “shear keys effect” depends on the state of the porous concrete–soil interface. For silty–clayey base soils, it is very significant and is of the same order of magnitude as the increase in shear resistance linked to the permanent reduction on the slip surface in pore water pressure (draining effect). This paper presents the results of an experimental investigation on the shear strength at the porous interface of concrete and fine-grained soils and demonstrates the high significance and effectiveness of the “shear keys” effect. Full article

Deep-seated gravitational slope deformations (DSGSDs) consist of gravity-induced, large-scale, gradual rock mass movements. In the Aosta Valley region (Valle d’Aosta NW Italy), DSGDs affect wide valley slopes and produce several interconnected morpho-structures that involve bedrock and Quaternary cover. Some DSGSD effects are not visible at the surface because of subglacial abrasion or burial by sediments and, therefore, are difficult to map with standard geomorphological surveys. This is the case for the Pointe Leysser DSGSD in the Aosta Valley, which is heavily influenced by the historical movements of the Verrogne-Clusellaz Glacier and its tributaries. We conducted a new geological investigation, integrated with deep electrical resistivity tomography geophysical surveys (ERTs). The ERT results were initially compared with geological/geomorphological evidence at the surface to define the correlation between the values and spatial distributions of electrical resistivity and the sediments, rocks, or morpho-structures. The resistivity values at various depths were subsequently analysed, interpreted, and discussed in conjunction with geological hypotheses. The geological and geophysical survey revealed three wide buried glacial valleys filled with glacial sediments and mapped the locations of gravitational morpho-structures at depth. These new data allowed us to draw a relationship between glacialism and gravitational evolution, distinguishing between pre-singlacial movements and postglacial movements. Full article

Urban flooding is becoming more frequent and severe due to the impact of climate change, underscoring the urgent need for effective flood risk management. This study investigates the dynamics of flood risk through two decades, from 2000 to 2020, in New Orleans, United States—a city historically marked by catastrophic flooding events. This research also explores the spatial patterns of socially vulnerable neighborhoods at the census tract level and patterns that have changed over the two decades. The Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) was used to indirectly evaluate flood risks over time utilizing Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 satellite imagery and geospatial analyses. Thematic mapping and geospatial analysis were used to generate maps revealing neighborhoods at the intersection of high flood risk and social vulnerability in New Orleans. Integrating flood maps derived from satellite observations with Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) calculations provides a comprehensive view of flood dynamics in the context of social vulnerability in an urban setting. The final composite products provide insight into zones where past resilience-building and risk-reduction efforts have reduced vulnerability in New Orleans and identify zones requiring intervention. The findings demonstrate how integrated data-driven analysis can inform urban infrastructure and policy development, thereby promoting discussions on urban resilience and the nuanced understanding of interactions between urban settings and flood risks, potentially aiding in implementing adaptive strategies to build resilience in New Orleans. Full article

The present study analyzes students’ weather-related hazard and risk literacy in Greece, a climate change hotspot region in the Eastern Mediterranean. In this context, we examine the students’ level in two core literacy variables, namely knowledge and competency. In addition, we explore how knowledge, attitudes, and socio-demographic variables influence students’ competencies related to weather and climate risk assessment and adaptability. A questionnaire-based survey was conducted on 474 students aged 12–16. The regression results showed that knowledge significantly affects the level of competency. Self-belief and confidence in science were the most influential among the attitudinal variables. We conclude by discussing the educational and behavioral issues highlighted as essential to address them with targeted policies and measures in formal education complemented by non-formal educational activities. We also propose future education requirements like further integration of real-world applications and advanced technologies to enhance students’ literacy in weather-related hazards and risks. Full article

Over the past few decades, cities have experienced increased floods affecting property and threatening human life as a result of a warming planet. There is still an incomplete understanding of the flood risk patterns in urban communities with different socioeconomic characteristics. In this study, we produced separate flood exposure and vulnerability indices based on relevant factors, then combined them as a risk index for Houston, Texas and Charleston, West Virginia. We applied statistical methods to extract the most significant social vulnerability factors in each study area. Finally, we mapped significant hot spots or clusters of high flood risk and compared results to socioeconomically disadvantaged populations. Based on the results, high-risk or 1%-annual-chance floodplains cover 23% of the Houston and 7% of Charleston study areas. Within these floodplains, 13% of the total developed land in Houston and 9% in Charleston are situated. In the event of a 1%-annual-chance flood, an estimated 5% of the total population in Houston and 6% in Charleston may require evacuation. Statistically significant flood risk clusters could only be identified in Houston. The implications from this work help to provide an analysis framework for larger urban areas while offering suggestions for its improvement in smaller populated areas. Full article

Volcanic eruptions stand as destructive threats to adjacent communities, unleashing multiple hazards such as earthquakes, tsunamis, pyroclastic flows, and toxic gases. The imperative for proactive management of volcanic risks and communities’ adaptation cannot be overstated, particularly in densely populated areas where the potential for widespread devastation looms large. Kolumbo, an active submarine volcano located approximately 7 km northeast of Santorini Island in Greece, serves as a pertinent case. Its historical record is characterised by an eruption in 1650 CE that produced a catastrophic tsunami. The aftermath witnessed havoc on neighbouring islands, coupled with casualties stemming from noxious gases in Santorini. Eyewitness accounts mention maximum water run-up heights of 20 m on the southern coast of Ios, inundation of an area of 240 m inland on Sikinos, and a flooding of up to 2 km² inland on the eastern coast of Santorini. Recent studies suggest that a potential future eruption of Kolumbo poses a substantial hazard to the northern and eastern coasts of Santorini. Unfortunately, the absence of a concrete management protocol leaves these areas vulnerable to an impending threat that demands immediate attention. Therefore, it is recommended that a comprehensive approach be adopted, involving scientific research (active monitoring, hazard maps), community engagement, preparedness planning with government agencies, and the development of timely response strategies to reduce the associated risks, prevent casualties, and mitigate the potential consequences on the region’s economy and infrastructure. Full article

The effects of global warming, coupled with the continuing expansion of urbanization, have significantly increased vulnerability to urban flooding, widespread erosion risks, and related phenomena such as shallow landslides and mudflows. These challenges are particularly evident in both lowland and hill/foothill environments of urbanized regions. Improving resilience to urban flooding has emerged as a top priority at various levels of governance. This paper aims to perform an initial analysis with the goal of developing an early warning system to efficiently manage intense convective rainfall events in urban areas. To address this need, the paper emphasizes the importance of analyzing different hazard scenarios. This involves examining different hydro-meteorological conditions and exploring management alternatives, as a fundamental step in designing and evaluating interventions to improve urban flood resilience. The Turin Metropolitan Area (TMA), located in north-western Italy, represents a unique case due to its complex orography, with a mountainous sector in the west and a flat or hilly part in the east. During the warm season, this urban area is exposed to strong atmospheric convection, resulting in frequent hailstorms and high-intensity rainfall. These weather conditions pose a threat to urban infrastructure, such as drainage systems and road networks, and require effective management strategies to mitigate risks and losses. The TMA’s urban areas are monitored by polarimetric Doppler weather radars and a dense network of rain gauges. By examining various summer precipitation events leading to urban flooding between 2007 and 2021, this study assesses the practicability of deploying a weather-radar early-warning system. The focus is on identifying rainfall thresholds that distinguish urban flooding in lowland areas and runoff erosion phenomena in urbanized hills and foothills. Full article

This paper presents a remote sensing approach for rapidly and automatically generating maps of surface disturbances caused by landslides on the global scale. Our approach not only identifies the locations of these disturbances but also pinpoints the estimated time of their occurrence. Using the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm within the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, we analyzed two decades of Landsat 5, 7, and 8 surface reflectance data. We tested this approach in five landslide-prone regions: Iburi (Japan), Kashmir (Pakistan), Karnataka (India), Porgera (Papua New Guinea), and Pasang Lhamu (Nepal). The results were promising, with R² values ranging up to 0.85, indicating a robust correlation between detected disturbances and actual landslide events compared to manually made inventories. The accuracy metrics further validated our method, with a producer’s accuracy of 75%, a user’s accuracy of 73%, and an F1 score of 75%. Furthermore, the method proved well transferable across different locations. These findings demonstrate the method’s potential as a valuable tool for near real-time and historical analysis of landslide activity, thereby contributing to global disaster management and mitigation efforts. Full article

Information about flood-prone areas in Accra, Ghana, acting as obstacles to the main infrastructure was required as input for a transportation study. We successfully identified these areas using the hydrologic screening software Arc-Malstrøm. Earlier studies have used a digital elevation model with a spatial resolution of 30 m, which unfortunately is not a true digital terrain model as it includes elevations from ground surfaces, structures, and vegetation. However, this study shows the benefits of using a hydro-conditioned 10 m resolution digital terrain model from Airbus^TM in predicting flood-prone areas. The entire investigation area covers approximately 23% of the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA), including the entire Odaw River basin. In this area, 5018 landscape sinks with water depths ≥ 0.1 m and volumes ≥ 5 m³ were identified. From this, 163 flood-induced roadblocks were found with maximum depths ≥ 0.3 m, rendering them impassable to normal vehicles. Beyond the adaptation of infrastructures in the hydro-conditioning process, more steps were necessary along the Odaw River’s southernmost course before its outlet into the Gulf of Guinea due to local trash accumulation reflected in the DTM. To address the unforeseen stochastic flood effects from trash piling up along the river channels, a simulation was conducted showing the upstream consequences caused by a trash barrier at the river’s outlet into the ocean. This leads to a discussion of the hazards posed by improper waste handling, coupled with increasing runoff predictions within the river’s drainage basin. Finally, we discuss local alternatives to the establishment of large central retention and detention basins to reduce flood-prone areas in GAMA during periods when stormwater-induced floods become more frequent, primarily due to uncontrolled urbanization increasing runoff volumes. Full article

In engineering practice, slope stability is commonly assessed using a two-dimensional (2D) analysis under the assumption of plane strain conditions. However, when dealing with the complex surface geometries of three-dimensional (3D) slopes, especially under short-term heavy rainfall conditions, relying solely on a 2D cross-sectional analysis may not always yield conservative results compared to 3D slope stability assessments. To investigate the applicability of using 2D cross-sections to represent 3D slopes, this study examines the influence of surface geometries on 3D slope stability. By varying the degree and frequency of surface undulations along a certain longitudinal length of the slope, as well as different variations in slope gradient, the impacts of these factors on the safety factor of 3D slopes under rainfall conditions are analyzed. The findings indicate that for 3D slopes with significant surface undulations and high-frequency variations, the safety factor is generally lower compared to that obtained from the 2D cross-sectional analysis. Furthermore, the variation in slope gradient has a more pronounced effect on the safety factor of 3D slopes compared to surface undulations, particularly when the slope gradients are larger than 50°. Therefore, the influence of spatial dimensions on the stability of slopes can be significant when dealing with complex surface geometries of 3D large-scale slopes. It is highly recommended to conduct both 3D and 2D analyses to ensure the accuracy of the slope stability analysis. Full article

Huge losses of life and property occurred as a result of two independent catastrophic earthquakes on 6 February 2023 in the Eastern Anatolian Fault Zone, where no significant earthquake has occurred in approximately 500 years. The earthquakes, whose epicenters were in the Pazarcık and Elbistan districts of Kahramanmaraş province at 9 h intervals, had magnitudes of M_w = 7.7 and M_w = 7.6 and caused different levels of structural damage, especially in masonry-style structures in rural areas. In this study, the damage that occurred in masonry village schools, especially in rural areas, during these two earthquakes was evaluated in terms of the characteristics of the earthquake and within the scope of civil engineering, and the causes of the damage were discussed. The damage levels of the masonry schools examined were classified using the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98). Information about the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes was given and structural analyses were carried out for a widely used reference school building. The school building block was analytically modeled, and its seismic load-bearing capacities were predicted through pushover analysis in TREMURI software. The study also includes repair and strengthening recommendations for such structures. Full article

The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) can significantly assist landslide detection and characterization in different geological contexts at a detailed scale. This study investigated the role of UAVs in detecting a first-failure landslide occurring in Calabria, South Italy, and involving weathered granitoid rocks. After the landslide event, which caused the interruption of State Road 107, a UAV flight was carried out to identify landslide boundaries and morphological features in areas where there are problems of safe access. The landslide was classified as flow-type, with a total length of 240 m, a maximum width of 70 m, and a maximum depth of about 6.5 m. The comparison of the DTMs generated from UAV data with previously available LIDAR data indicated significant topographic changes across the landslide area. A minimum negative value of −6.3 m suggested material removal at the landslide source area. An approximate value of −2 m in the transportation area signified bed erosion and displacement of material as the landslide moved downslope. A maximum positive value of 4.2 m was found in the deposition area. The landslide volume was estimated to be about 6000 m³. These findings demonstrated the effectiveness of UAVs for landslide detection, showing their potentiality as valuable tools in planning further studies for a detailed landslide characterization and for defining the most appropriate risk mitigation measures. Full article

Sediment gravity flows (SGFs) cause serious damage in the Alpine regions. In the literature, several methodologies have been elaborated to define the main features of these phenomena, mainly considering the rheological features of the flow processes by laboratory experiments or by flow simulation using 2D or 3D propagation models or considering a single aspect, such as the morphometric parameters of catchments in which SGFs occur. These very targeted approaches are primarily linked to the definition of SGFs’ propagation behavior or to identify the predisposing role played by just one feature of catchments neglecting other complementary aspects regarding phenomena and the environment in which SGFs can occur. Although the research aimed at the quantification of some parameters that drive the behavior of SGFs provides good results in understanding the flow mechanisms, it does not provide an exhaustive understanding of the overall nature of these phenomena, including their trigger conditions and a complete view of predisposing factors that contribute to their generation. This paper presents a research work based on the collection and cross-analysis of lithological, geomechanical, geomorphological and morphometrical characteristics of Alpine catchments compared with sedimentological and morphological features of SGF deposits, also taking in to account the rainfall data correlation with historical SGF events. A multidisciplinary approach was implemented, aiming at quantifying SGF causes and characteristics starting from the catchments’ features where the phenomena originate in a more exhaustive way. The study used 78 well-documented catchments of Susa Valley (Western Italian Alps), having 614 historical flow events reported, that present a great variability in geomorphological and geological features. As the main result, three catchment groups were recognized based on the dominant catchment bedrock’s lithology characteristics that influence the SGFs’ rheology, sedimentological and depositional features, triggering rainfall values, seasonality, occurrence frequency and alluvial fan architecture. The classification method was also compared with the catchments’ morphometry classification, demonstrating that the fundamental role in determining the type of flow process that can most likely occur in a given catchment is played by the bedrock outcropping percentage, regardless of the results provided by the morphometric approach. The analysis of SGF events through the proposed method led to a relative estimate of the hazard degree of these phenomena distinguished by catchment type. Full article

We developed a rainfall threshold model with the objective of limiting the effects of uncertainties typically associated with them, such as a lack of robust landslide database, the selection of the contributing rain gauge, seasonal variations in rainfall patterns, and the effect of extreme rainfall conditions. With the aid of gauge-corrected satellite precipitation data and a landslide database compiled from various sources, separate rainfall thresholds were developed for two waves of the monsoon season in the Western Ghats, India. The daily vs. antecedent rainfall distributions for different scenarios of antecedent rainfall were analyzed for landslide occurrence. The different scenarios considered included 1, 2, 3, 5, 10-, 20-, 30- and 40-day antecedent rainfalls along with the monsoon antecedent defined as the cumulative rainfall from the start of the monsoon to the day prior to landslide occurrence, and the event antecedent defined as the cumulative rainfall from the start of a rainfall event to the day prior to landslide occurrence. A statistically defined critical value was used to define the thresholds for extreme rainfall conditions, while ordinary least squares and quantile regression models were compared to identify the best-fit model for the non-extreme rainfall threshold. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed on all these models and the best model was chosen based on the efficiency values. The daily vs. monsoon antecedent threshold was the best model for the first monsoon wave, and the daily vs. event antecedent model was the best model for the second monsoon wave. A separate rainfall threshold was defined for the entire monsoon without subdivision into separate waves, and corresponding ROC statistics were compared with the former approach to analyze the efficacy of intra-seasonal variations in rainfall threshold development. The results suggest that cumulative rainfall makes a significant contribution towards landslide initiation and that intra-seasonal variations should be necessarily considered in rainfall threshold modeling. Full article

Virtual reality (VR) is a promising new educational and training tool in the field of disaster and emergency management, especially for hazards that are not frequent or well known to the public and require spatial and situational understanding. The objective of this paper is to describe an educational VR simulation that was developed based on a landslide that really occurred in Southern Malawi during the March 2023 Cyclone Freddy. The cyclone induced several landslides that caused many casualties and significant damage. The VR simulation framework consisted of four critical steps using Unity3D for the creation of the simulation including data preparation, terrain and environmental modeling, landslide simulation development, and virtual reality interactions. The simulation scenarios were diversified to include three distinct landscapes that can help users learn how factors such as terrain can influence landslide impacts. The VR simulation offers users an intimate, firsthand experience of the landslide’s unfolding and allows users the ability to explore various facets of the landslide phenomena. This VR simulation aims to provide an educational tool to facilitate an in-depth understanding of and interaction with a real-word landslide to learn about the impacts of landslides and how different factors can influence these impacts. Full article

Quito (Ecuador) has a history of mudflow events from ravines that pose significant risks to its urban areas. Located close to the Pichincha Volcanic Complex, on 31 January 2022, the northwest and central parts of the city were hit by a mudflow triggered by unusual rainfall in the upper part of the drainage, with 28 fatalities and several properties affected. This research focuses on the affected area from collector overflow to the end, considering sedimentological characteristics and behavior through various urban elements. This study integrates the analysis of videos, images, and sediment deposits to understand the dynamics and impacts of the mudflow using a multidisciplinary approach. The methodology includes verifying multimedia materials using free software alongside the Large-Scale Particle Image Velocimetry (LSPIV) to estimate the kinematic parameters of the mudflow. The affected area, reaching a maximum distance of 3.2 km from the overflow point, was divided into four zones for a detailed analysis, each characterized by its impact level and sediment distribution. Results indicate significant variations in mudflow behavior across different urban areas, influenced by topographical and anthropogenic factors. Multimedia analysis provided insights into the mudflow’s velocity and evolution as it entered urban areas. The study also highlights the role of urban planning and infrastructure in modifying the mudflow’s distribution, particularly in the Northern and Southern Axes of its path, compared with a similar 1975 event, seven times larger than this. It also contributes to understanding urban mudflow events in Quito, offering valuable insights for disaster risk management in similar contexts. Full article

This review paper examined the global landscape of research on continental flood early warning systems (EWS), shedding light on key trends, geographic disparities, and research priorities. Continental floods stand as one of the most pervasive and devastating disasters worldwide, necessitating proactive measures to mitigate their impact. Drawing upon a comprehensive analysis of the scholarly literature indexed in the Web of Science repository, this study unveiled significant patterns in EWS research. While the emphasis on flooding is evident, a considerable portion of research focuses on precipitation as a variable and modeling approaches. Furthermore, the influence of climate change emerges as a prominent theme, though distinguishing between climate change and variability remains a crucial area for exploration. Geographically, Europe, particularly England and Italy, dominates research efforts in flood related EWS. Conversely, the limited representation of Central America and other regions such as Asia and Oceania, underscores the need for greater attention to regions facing significant flood risks. Importantly, the concept of total link strength emerges as a valuable metric, highlighting collaborative networks established by European countries and the United States. Based on these findings, recommendations are proposed to enhance the inclusivity and effectiveness of flood related EWS research, including a broader consideration of socio-economic factors, fostering collaboration among researchers from diverse regions, and prioritizing initiatives to strengthen research capacities in vulnerable areas. Ultimately, this study provides valuable insights for policymakers, researchers, and practitioners seeking to advance flood risk management strategies on a global scale. Full article