GeoHazards, Volume 5, Issue 4 (December 2024) – 11 articles

Advancing the capabilities of earthquake nowcasting, the real-time forecasting of seismic activities, remains crucial for reducing casualties. This multifaceted challenge has recently gained attention within the deep learning domain, facilitated by the availability of extensive earthquake datasets. Despite significant advancements, the existing literature on earthquake nowcasting lacks comprehensive evaluations of pre-trained foundation models and modern deep learning architectures; each focuses on a different aspect of data, such as spatial relationships, temporal patterns, and multi-scale dependencies. This paper addresses the mentioned gap by analyzing different architectures and introducing two innovative approaches called Multi Foundation Quake and GNNCoder. We formulate earthquake nowcasting as a time series forecasting problem for the next 14 days within 0.1-degree spatial bins in Southern California. Earthquake time series are generated using the logarithm energy released by quakes, spanning 1986 to 2024. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that our introduced models outperform other custom architectures by effectively capturing temporal-spatial relationships inherent in seismic data. The performance of existing foundation models varies significantly based on the pre-training datasets, emphasizing the need for careful dataset selection. However, we introduce a novel method, Multi Foundation Quake, that achieves the best overall performance by combining a bespoke pattern with Foundation model results handled as auxiliary streams. Full article

Floods are the climate hazard that has the greatest socio-economic and territorial impact on the world. The root causes of these events are atmospheric and hydrological phenomena. However, human action usually aggravates their effects, as it alters the normal functioning of the river courses and water flows. The installation of road, rail and hydraulic infrastructures in a floodplain with no prior calculation or appropriate adaptation exacerbates the negative consequences of floods, increasing the extension of the flooded area and the height of the flood waters. This study addresses the problem of the barrier effect generated, on the one hand, by the layout of the N-332 road, as it is built at the same level as the ground, hindering the flow of overflowing water during episodes of flooding, and on the other hand, the channelling wall of the Segura River in the final stretch of its mouth, in the towns of San Fulgencio and Guardamar del Segura. These elements have aggravated flooding in this area. In order to analyse the consequences of the flood, IBER (v.3.3) software has been used to model a flood with similar effects to that of the episode of September 2019. The current situation has also been analysed with two openings in order to determine the effects that a future flood would have. After analysing the results, a proposal to correct the barrier effect of the N-332 road and the new channelling wall of the River Segura has been elaborated upon and then modelled. The results are positive and effective in reducing the negative effects of floods in the lower basin of the River Segura. Full article

Sand dunes protect the most important economic and ecologically critical landscapes from coastal hazards (storms and high-tide flooding). The characteristics of the dune affect their protective ability. This paper qualitatively and quantitatively assesses the relationships between pre- and post-storm conditions for vegetation and the morphology of an incipient dune system along the South Carolina coast. Field-based dune vegetation and morphology measurements were obtained before and after tropical storm Dorian (2019). Vegetation is assessed with respect to distribution and functional type, and subgroups are introduced to categorize land cover transitions. At the quadrat scale (0.2 m²) following the storm, there was a shift from stabilizer to builder, a decrease of sand (2%), and the vegetation remained consistent at around 61% of the land cover. Transect-level analysis (0.2 m × 1.0 m) revealed distinct variability concerning post-storm morphology change in the extreme study site extents. Dorian resulted in approximately 10% volumetric loss over the entire study site (101 m²). This study demonstrated changes to a dune system following a tropical storm with wind as the dominant forcing factor. This study revealed that vegetation presence is not broadly correlated with reduced levels of post-storm erosion. Full article

Climate change (CC) is expected to cause significant changes in weather patterns, leading to extreme phenomena. Specifically, the intensity of precipitation extremes is continuously escalating, even in regions with decreasing average precipitation levels. Given that CC leads to long-term shifts in weather patterns and may affect the precipitation characteristics (i.e., frequency, duration, and intensity) directly related to groundwater table fluctuations and soil erosion phenomena, it has the potential to significantly affect soil slope instabilities. In turn, slope stability and the structural integrity of nearby structures and infrastructure will be affected. Accordingly, the present paper focuses on the impact of CC on the geohazard of soil slope instability by considering both hydrological aspects, i.e., the impact on rainfall intensity on the groundwater table and the geotechnical aspects of this complex problem. The findings reveal that the impact of CC on potential slope instabilities can be detrimental or even beneficial, depending on the specific site and water conditions. Therefore, it is essential to do the following: (a) collect all the available data of the area of interest, (b) assess their variations over time, and (c) examine each potentially unstable slope on a case-by-case basis to properly mitigate this geohazard. Full article

Vertical creep along 15 ground ruptures within a 15 km long and 1.5 km wide zone has been occurring along the southeastern part of Metro Manila. Though the unusually high rates of vertical slip point to excessive groundwater withdrawal as the trigger, the evidence presented herein indicates that these may not be simple irregular subsidence fissures. Tectonic control of creep along these traces is suggested by the following: the occurrence of some of these ground ruptures along pre-existing scarps that coincide with topographic and lithologic boundaries, the left-stepping en echelon pattern of surface rupturing, and the distribution of the creeping zone within the dilational gap of the dextral strike-slip West Valley Fault (WVF). Furthermore, interpretation of an exposure across one of the creeping faults indicates reactivation by creep of a pre-existing tectonic fault zone. The paleoseismic evidence also suggests that the pre-creep slips are coseismic and dominantly strike-slip. Recognizing the occurrence of coseismic slip preceding aseismic creep is a primary consideration in assessing the potential of the WVF’s creeping segment and its adjacent segments in generating earthquakes. Tighter groundwater extraction regulations may be necessary to avoid exacerbating the effects of vertical ground deformation and the occurrence of induced seismicity. Full article

Using the existing two-dimensional experimental data and Open-source Fields Operation and Manipulation (OpenFOAM) software, this study performs a comprehensive comparative analysis of three types of landslide-generated tsunamis (subaerial, partially submerged, and submarine). The primary objective was to assess whether numerical simulations can accurately reproduce the experimental results of each type and to compare the predictive equations of the tsunami amplitudes derived from experimental and simulated data. The mesh size and dynamic viscosity parameters were initially optimized for a specific partially submerged landslide tsunami scenario and then applied across a broader range of experimental scenarios. Most of the simulated wave amplitudes remained within the 50% error margin, although significant discrepancies were observed between landslide types. When focusing on the crest amplitude of the first wave, the simulations of subaerial landslides least deviated from the experimental data, with a mean absolute percentage error of approximately 20%, versus approximately 40% for the partially submerged and submarine landslides. The predictive equations derived from the simulations closely matched those from the experimental data, confirming that OpenFOAM can effectively capture complex landslide–tsunami dynamics. Nonetheless, variations in the coefficients related to slope angles highlight the need for further calibration to enhance the simulation fidelity. Full article

Sediment management is fundamental for managing mountain watercourses and their upslope catchment. A multidisciplinary approach—not limited to the discipline of hydraulics—is necessary for investigating the alterations in sediment transport along the watercourse by detecting those reaches dominated by erosion and deposition processes, by quantifying the sediment volume change, by assessing the functionality of the existing torrent control structures, and by delimitating the riparian vegetation patches. To pursue these goals, specific continuous monitoring is essential, despite being extremely rare in mountain catchments. The present study proposed an integrated approach to determine the hydro-morphological–sedimentological–ecological state of a mountain watercourse though field- and desk-based analyses. Such an integral approach includes a rainfall–runoff model, a morphological change analysis and the application of empirical formulations for estimating peak discharge, mobilizable sediment/large wood volume and watercourse hydraulic capacity, at reach and catchment scales. The procedure was tested on the Upper Adda River catchment (North Italy). The results identified where and with what priority maintenance and monitoring activities must be carried out, considering sediment regime, torrent control structures and vegetation. This study is an example of how it is possible to enhance all existing information through successive qualitative and quantitative approximations and to concentrate new resources (human and economic) on specific gaps, for drafting a scientifically robust and practical sediment management plan. Full article

On 19 September 2021, a strombolian volcanic eruption began on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands. This event resulted in the destruction of 73 km of roads, urban infrastructure, numerous houses, and agricultural crops, affecting approximately 7200 people and causing losses exceeding 1.2 billion euros. Around 12 km² were covered by aa and pahoehoe lava flows, which reached thicknesses of over 70 m. Following the end of the eruption, thermal, geological, and geotechnical site investigations were carried out for the reconstruction and territorial and urban planning, with the main objectives focused on opening roads through hot lava, constructing new urban settlements in areas covered by lava flows, and facilitating the agricultural recovery. The primary challenges to reconstruction included the very slow cooling rate of the lava, resulting in persistent high temperatures, exceeding 500 °C, its highly heterogeneous geotechnical properties with numerous cavities and lava caves, and the presence of toxic gases. Site investigations included geotechnical boreholes, seismic geophysics and ground-penetration radar, and temperature measurements of lava flows using drones and thermocouple devices inside boreholes. To estimate the cooling rates of the lava flows, two physical cooling models were developed based on thermal behavior and geological–geotechnical data. The results indicated that lava cooling durations in some areas exceed practical waiting times for commencing reconstruction. This led to the development of geological engineering solutions that permit road construction and urban and agricultural reconstruction to begin sooner than estimated by the cooling models. On the other hand, potential hazards arising from the eruption process have also been taken into account. Stability analyses of the 200 m high volcanic cone formed during the eruption indicate the possibility of failure in the event of heavy rain and consequently lahar hazards. The results of the investigations carried out and their applications to post-disaster reconstruction may be useful for other volcanic regions, contributing to minimizing risk to infrastructure and urban settlements. Full article

This research examines the seismic behavior of a cable-stayed bridge featuring concrete-filled steel tube (CFST) pylons, which includes the seesaw system. The objective of the study is to assess the efficacy of the seesaw system in mitigating the seismic response of the bridge across various earthquake scenarios, while also accounting for the implications of soil–structure interaction (SSI). A comprehensive finite element model of the bridge is constructed, incorporating the CFST pylons, cable system, and the novel seesaw energy dissipation system. This model is tested against a range of ground motions that reflect different seismic hazard levels and characteristics. The impact of SSI is analyzed through a series of parametric studies that explore various soil conditions and foundation types. The findings indicate that the implementation of the seesaw system markedly decreases the seismic demands placed on the bridge structure, particularly regarding deck displacements, pylon base shear, and cable forces. Furthermore, the study underscores the significant influence of SSI on the dynamic behavior of the bridge system, emphasizing the necessity of its inclusion in seismic design and analysis. This research enhances the understanding of seismic protection strategies for cable-stayed bridges, providing valuable insights into the advantages of integrating energy dissipation systems and recognizing the importance of SSI effects in evaluating seismic performance. Full article

Floods pose significant challenges globally, particularly in coastal regions like the Philippines, which are vulnerable to typhoons and subsequent inundations. This study focuses on Naic city in Cavite, Philippines, using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to develop flood risk maps employing two Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods including Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). These maps integrate hazard, vulnerability, and exposure assessments to identify structures most vulnerable to flooding. Weight assignments in the study are derived from a literature review and expert opinions, reflecting the Philippines’ flood-prone geography and historical data. Structural attributes, categorized on a low to very high scale, were assessed based on field survey data from 555 buildings. AHP categorized 91.3% of buildings as moderate to very high risk, whereas TOPSIS placed 68% in this category, underscoring methodological disparities in data handling and assumptions. This research enhances understanding of flood threats and offers a decision-making framework for resilient flood risk management strategies. Identifying vulnerable buildings aims to support informed urban planning and disaster preparedness in flood-prone areas, thereby mitigating potential property, infrastructure, and livelihood damage. Full article

Rwanda, in eastern tropical Africa, is a small, densely populated country where climatic disasters are often the cause of considerable damage and deaths. Landslides are among the most frequent hazards, linked to the country’s peculiar configuration including high relief with steep slopes, humid tropical climate with heavy rainfall, intense deforestation over the past 60 years, and extensive use of the soil for agriculture. The Karongi region, in the west-central part of the country, was affected by an exceptional cluster of more than 700 landslides during a single night (6–7 May 2018) over an area of 100 km². We analyse the causes of this spectacular event based on field geological and geomorphology investigation and CHIRPS and ERA5-Land climate data. We demonstrate that (1) the notably steep slopes favoured soil instability; (2) the layered soil and especially the gravelly, porous C horizon allowed water storage and served as a detachment level for the landslides; (3) relatively low intensity, almost continuous rainfall over the previous two months lead to soil water-logging; and (4) acoustic waves from thunder or mechanical shaking by strong wind destabilized the water-logged soil through thixotropy triggering the landslides. This analysis should serve as a guide for forecasting landslide-triggering conditions in Rwanda. Full article