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Weather and Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts (2nd Edition)
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Weather and Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts (2nd Edition)

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Climatology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 20 May 2025 | Viewed by 6834

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Constanta-Emilia Boroneant

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Guest Editor
Institute of Geography of the Romanian Academy, Environmental Geography & GIS Department, 023993 Bucharest, Romania
Interests: climate variability and change; weather and climate extremes; regional climate projections; climate change impact assessment
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Bogdan Antonescu

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Guest Editor
Faculty of Physics, University of Bucharest, 030018 Bucharest, Romania
Interests: remote sensing of clouds and precipitation; cloud radar; weather and climate extremes; climate change
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Feifei Shen

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 211544, China
Interests: doppler weather radar data assimilation; satellite remote sensing observation data assimilation; integrated variational hybrid assimilation system development; wind, solar and other renewable energy research
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

This Special Issue is the second volume in a series of publications dedicated to “Weather and Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts” (https://www.mdpi.com/journal/atmosphere/special_issues/DGK8JC7342).

In recent decades, weather and climate extremes have attracted increasing attention due to their significant societal impact on multiple sectors, including agriculture, economy, and human health. 

As highlighted in the 6th IPCC report, it is becoming increasingly evident that climate change is associated with extreme events and their augmented frequency, duration and intensity. These extreme events often cause significant damage to society and the environment, and are considered to be some of the most potentially harmful consequences of a changing climate.

Extreme weather and climate events occur at time scales of hours (e.g., convective storms that produce heavy precipitation) to days (e.g., tropical cyclones, heatwaves), seasons or years (e.g., droughts). Significant increasing trends have been observed in many extreme climate indicators over many regions using a variety of datasets and methods.

Studies of past and future changes in weather and climate extremes use various sources of data: observations, including in situ observations; remote sensing data; derived data products such as reanalysis; and ensembles of general or regional circulation models run under various climate scenarios.

This Special Issue covers all topics regarding the practices and challenges related to modeling extreme weather climate events and intends to enhance our current understanding and prediction of such extremes.

Submissions that address a wide range of topics are welcome; this includes, but is not limited to, the assessment of weather and climatic extremes at local and regional scales and long-term changes and trends via the analysis of the following:

  • Historical records or simulations based on climate models;
  • Synoptic and seasonal conditions generating climate extremes;
  • Social, economic, and environmental impacts.

Dr. Constanta-Emilia Boroneant
Dr. Bogdan Antonescu
Dr. Feifei Shen
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

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Keywords

  • heat/cold waves
  • tropical cyclones
  • heavy precipitation
  • extreme temperature and precipitation indices
  • climate extremes
  • floods
  • droughts
  • projected changes in climate extremes
  • impacts of climate extremes on different sectors (human health, agriculture, economy)

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Published Papers (9 papers)

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Research

23 pages, 900 KiB  
Article
Demand for Information for Wildland Fire Management
by George B. Frisvold, Ning Zhang, Michael A. Crimmins, Daniel Ferguson and Charles Maxwell
Atmosphere 2024, 15(11), 1364; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15111364 - 13 Nov 2024
Viewed by 331
Abstract
Significant resources have been devoted to increasing the supply of data and information products for wildland fire management. There has been comparatively less emphasis on understanding the demand for these products. There are large differences in the number of information sources that fire [...] Read more.
Significant resources have been devoted to increasing the supply of data and information products for wildland fire management. There has been comparatively less emphasis on understanding the demand for these products. There are large differences in the number of information sources that fire managers use in decision making. We developed a value-of-information model for wildland fire managers to formulate hypotheses about what factors drive these differences. Data from a comprehensive internet survey targeting a well-defined population of the Southwest wildland fire managers are used to test these hypotheses. Results are generally consistent with hypotheses generated from the value-of-information model. Multiple regression results suggest information use increases with the number of decisions that managers make and is greater during fire season than before. Information use is affected by a manager’s level of education, age, experience, job type, the agencies they work for, and the multi-agency dispatch centers where they work. Agency and dispatch center effects explain more of the variation in information use than differences in the respondents’ personal characteristics. To better understand fire manager demand for information, future research could explore in more detail what specific attributes of agencies and dispatch centers affect use of information for wildland fire management. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Weather and Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts (2nd Edition))
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18 pages, 8260 KiB  
Article
Role of the Europe–China Pattern Teleconnection in the Interdecadal Autumn Dry–Wet Fluctuations in Central China
by Linwei Jiang, Wenhao Gao, Kexu Zhu, Jianqiu Zheng and Baohua Ren
Atmosphere 2024, 15(11), 1363; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15111363 - 13 Nov 2024
Viewed by 271
Abstract
Based on statistical analyses of long-term reanalysis data, we have investigated the interdecadal variations of autumn precipitation in central China (APC-d) and the associated atmospheric teleconnection. It reveals that the increased autumn rainfall in central China during the last decade is a portion [...] Read more.
Based on statistical analyses of long-term reanalysis data, we have investigated the interdecadal variations of autumn precipitation in central China (APC-d) and the associated atmospheric teleconnection. It reveals that the increased autumn rainfall in central China during the last decade is a portion of the APC-d, which exhibits a high correlation coefficient of 0.7 with the interdecadal variations of the Europe–China pattern (EC-d pattern) teleconnection. The EC-d pattern teleconnection presents in a “+-+” structure over Eurasia, putting central China into the periphery of a quasi-barotropic anticyclonic high-pressure anomaly. Driven by positive vorticity advection and the inflow of warmer and moist air from the south, central China experiences enhanced ascending motion and abundant water vapor supply, resulting in increased rainfall. Further analysis suggests that the EC-d pattern originates from the exit of the North Atlantic jet and propagates eastward. It is captured by the Asian westerly jet stream and proceeds towards East Asia through the wave–mean flow interaction. The wave train acquires effective potential energy from the mean flow by the baroclinic energy conversion and simultaneously obtains kinetic energy from the basic westerly jet zones across the North Atlantic and the East Asian coasts. The interdecadal variation of the mid-latitude North Atlantic sea surface temperature (MAT-d) exhibits a significant negative relationship with EC-d, serving as a modulating factor for the EC-d pattern teleconnection. Experiments with CMIP6 models predict that the interdecadal variations in APC-d, EC-d, and MAT-d will maintain stable high correlations for the rest of the 21st century. These findings may contribute to forecasting the interdecadal autumn dry–wet conditions in central China. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Weather and Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts (2nd Edition))
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17 pages, 2782 KiB  
Article
An Assessment of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Solar Irradiance Forecasting under the Influence of Cold Fronts in a Desert in Northwestern Mexico
by Jose Ernesto López-Velázquez, Nicolás Velázquez-Limón, Saúl Islas-Pereda, David Enrique Flores-Jiménez, Néstor Santillan-Soto and Juan Ríos-Arriola
Atmosphere 2024, 15(11), 1300; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15111300 - 29 Oct 2024
Viewed by 503
Abstract
Northwestern Mexico has a desert climate with high solar resources. Clear skies and low humidity during most of the year favor their use. In winter, the arrival of cold air masses from the polar latitudes cause instability and abrupt changes in atmospheric variables, [...] Read more.
Northwestern Mexico has a desert climate with high solar resources. Clear skies and low humidity during most of the year favor their use. In winter, the arrival of cold air masses from the polar latitudes cause instability and abrupt changes in atmospheric variables, increasing the error of short-term forecasts. This work focuses on the evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for predicting the global horizontal irradiance (GHI), considering different parameterizations of shortwave and longwave solar radiation during the influence of five cold fronts that affected the desert region of northwestern Mexico. The simulation was carried out under four main shortwave configurations and the results were evaluated with surface measurements and compared with climate information from NASA-POWER. The GHI predicted with the Dudhia parameterization showed an overestimation of the WRF model during most of the analyzed events; the most accurate predictions obtained correlation values between 0.85 and 0.91 and a mean absolute error between 15 and 45 W m−2. In periods where intermittent clouds prevailed, the mean error increased by almost 20%. An evaluation of the different proposed configurations shows advantages with the shortwave Dudhia and longwave RRTM parameterizations, providing a useful meteorological tool for predicting short-range variations in the GHI to improve the operability of solar power generation systems. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Weather and Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts (2nd Edition))
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39 pages, 13273 KiB  
Article
Interdecadal Variations in the Seasonal Cycle of Explosive Growth of Southern Hemisphere Storms with Impacts on Southern Australian Rainfall
by Stacey L. Osbrough and Jorgen S. Frederiksen
Atmosphere 2024, 15(11), 1273; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15111273 - 24 Oct 2024
Viewed by 419
Abstract
Interdecadal variations, since the middle of the 20th century, in the seasonal cycle of Southern Hemisphere extratropical synoptic scale weather systems, are studied and related to associated anomalies in Southern Australian rainfall over south-west Western Australia (SWWA) and southeast Australia (SEA). A data-driven [...] Read more.
Interdecadal variations, since the middle of the 20th century, in the seasonal cycle of Southern Hemisphere extratropical synoptic scale weather systems, are studied and related to associated anomalies in Southern Australian rainfall over south-west Western Australia (SWWA) and southeast Australia (SEA). A data-driven method is employed in which atmospheric fluctuations, specified from 6-hourly lower-tropospheric reanalysis data, are spectrally analysed in space and time to determine the statistics of the intensity and growth rates of growing and decaying eddies. Extratropical storms, blocking and north-west cloud band weather types are investigated in two frequency bands, with periods less than 4 days and between 4 and 8 days, and in three growth rate and three decay rate bins. Southern Australian rainfall variability is found to be most related to changes in explosive storms particularly in autumn and winter. During the first 10 years of the Australian Millennium Drought (AMD), from 1997 to 2006, dramatic changes in rainfall and storminess occurred. Rainfall declines ensued over SEA in all seasons, associated with corresponding reductions in the intensity of fast-growing storms with periods less than 4 days. These changes, compared with the 20-year timespans of 1949 to 1968 and 1975 to 1994, also took place for the longer duration of 1997 to 2016, apart from summer. Over SWWA, autumn and winter rainfall totals have decreased systematically with time for each of the 10-year and 20-year timespans analysed. Southern Australian rainfall variability is also found to be closely related to the local, hemispheric or global features of the circulation of the atmosphere and oceans that we characterise by indices. Local circulation indices of sea level pressure and 700 hPa zonal winds are good predictors of SWWA and SEA annual rainfall variability particularly in autumn and winter with vertical velocity generally less so. The new Subtropical Atmospheric Jet (SAJ) and the Southern Ocean Regional Dipole (SORD) indices are found to be the most skilful non-local predictors of cool season SWWA rainfall variability on annual and decadal timescales. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) are the strongest non-local predictors of SEA annual rainfall variability from autumn through to late spring, while on the decadal timescale, different indices dominate for different 3-month periods. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Weather and Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts (2nd Edition))
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23 pages, 7569 KiB  
Article
Analyzing the Spatiotemporal Changes in Climatic Extremes in Cold and Mountainous Environment: Insights from the Himalayan Mountains of Pakistan
by Usama Zafar, Muhammad Naveed Anjum, Saddam Hussain, Muhammad Sultan, Ghulam Rasool, Muhammad Zain Bin Riaz, Muhammad Shoaib and Muhammad Asif
Atmosphere 2024, 15(10), 1221; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15101221 - 13 Oct 2024
Viewed by 916
Abstract
This study assessed the past changes in extreme precipitation and temperature events across the Himalayan Mountains of Pakistan. This cold and mountainous environmental region has witnessed a significant increase in climate-related disasters over the past few decades. Spatiotemporal changes in extreme temperature and [...] Read more.
This study assessed the past changes in extreme precipitation and temperature events across the Himalayan Mountains of Pakistan. This cold and mountainous environmental region has witnessed a significant increase in climate-related disasters over the past few decades. Spatiotemporal changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events were analyzed using 24 indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). For this study, in situ data of 16 national meteorological stations were obtained from the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) for the past three decades (1991–2020). The significance of the trends was assessed using the modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test, and the Theil–Sen (TS) slope estimator was used to estimate the slope of the trend. The results showed that there has been a consistent decline in the total precipitation amount across the Himalayan Mountains of Pakistan. The trend exhibited a decrease in the annual average precipitation at a rate of −6.56 mm/year. Simultaneously, there was an increasing trend in the annual average minimum and maximum temperatures at rates of 0.02 °C/year and 0.07 °C/year, respectively. The frequencies of consecutive wet days (CWDs) and maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5day) have decreased significantly, with decreasing rates of −0.40 days/year and −1.18 mm/year, respectively. The amount of precipitation during very wet days (R95p) and extremely wet days was decreased by −19.20 and −13.60 mm/decade, respectively. The warm spell duration (WSDI) and the frequency of warm days (TX90p) across the Himalayan Range both increased by 1.5 and 1.4 days/decade. The number of cold days (TX10p) and cold nights (TN10p) decreased by 2.9 and 3.4 days/decade. The average temperature of the hottest nights (TXn) and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) were increased by 0.10 and 0.30 °C/decade. The results indicated an increasing tendency of dry and warm weather in the Himalayan region of Pakistan, which could have adverse consequences for water resources, agriculture, and disaster management in the country. Therefore, it is essential to prioritize the implementation of localized adaptation techniques in order to enhance sustainable climate resilience and effectively address the emerging climate challenges faced by these mountainous regions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Weather and Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts (2nd Edition))
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27 pages, 21981 KiB  
Article
A Multi-Scale Analysis of the Extreme Precipitation in Southern Brazil in April/May 2024
by Michelle Simões Reboita, Enrique Vieira Mattos, Bruno César Capucin, Diego Oliveira de Souza and Glauber Willian de Souza Ferreira
Atmosphere 2024, 15(9), 1123; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15091123 - 16 Sep 2024
Viewed by 1250
Abstract
Since 2020, southern Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul (RS) State has been affected by extreme precipitation episodes caused by different atmospheric systems. However, the most extreme was registered between the end of April and the beginning of May 2024. This extreme precipitation caused [...] Read more.
Since 2020, southern Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul (RS) State has been affected by extreme precipitation episodes caused by different atmospheric systems. However, the most extreme was registered between the end of April and the beginning of May 2024. This extreme precipitation caused floods in most parts of the state, affecting 2,398,255 people and leading to 183 deaths and 27 missing persons. Due to the severity of this episode, we need to understand its drivers. In this context, the main objective of this study is a multi-scale analysis of the extreme precipitation between 26 April and 5 May, i.e., an analysis of the large-scale patterns of the atmosphere, a description of the synoptic environment, and an analysis of the mesoscale viewpoint (cloud-top features and lightning). Data from different sources (reanalysis, satellite, radar, and pluviometers) were used in this study, and different methods were applied. The National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN) registered accumulated rainfall above 400 mm between 26 April and 5 May using 27 pluviometers located in the central-northern part of RS. The monthly volumes reached 667 mm and 803 mm, respectively, for April and May 2024, against a climatological average of 151 mm and 137 mm for these months. The maximum precipitation recorded was 300 mm in a single day on 30 April 2024. From a large-scale point of view, an anomalous heat source in the western Indian Ocean triggered a Rossby wave that contributed to a barotropic anticyclonic anomalous circulation over mid-southeastern Brazil. While the precipitant systems were inhibited over this region (the synoptic view), the anomalous stronger subtropical jet southward of the anticyclonic circulation caused uplift over RS State and, consequently, conditions leading to mesoscale convective system (MCS) development. In addition, the low-level jet east of the Andes transported warm and moist air to southern Brazil, which also interacted with two cold fronts that reached RS during the 10-day period, helping to establish the precipitation. Severe deep MCSs (with a cloud-top temperature lower than −80 °C) were responsible for a high lightning rate (above 10 flashes km−2 in 10 days) and accumulated precipitation (above 600 mm in 10 days), as observed by satellite measurements. This high volume of rainfall caused an increase in soil moisture, which exceeded a volume fraction of 0.55, making water infiltration into the soil difficult and, consequently, favoring flood occurrence. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Weather and Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts (2nd Edition))
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19 pages, 9204 KiB  
Article
Drought Dynamics and Drought Hazard Assessment in Southwest Bulgaria
by Nina Nikolova, Kalina Radeva, Leonid Todorov and Simeon Matev
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 888; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080888 - 25 Jul 2024
Viewed by 991
Abstract
Awareness of the potential threat posed by drought necessitates the implementation of appropriate procedures to enable effective and systematic actions aimed at mitigating, or at least partially limiting, the impacts of drought events. This paper seeks to analyze the spatial and temporal changes [...] Read more.
Awareness of the potential threat posed by drought necessitates the implementation of appropriate procedures to enable effective and systematic actions aimed at mitigating, or at least partially limiting, the impacts of drought events. This paper seeks to analyze the spatial and temporal changes of atmospheric drought in the period 1961–2020 and assesses drought hazards in southwest Bulgaria, which is a region susceptible to periodic water shortages. In this study, the standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI), accounting for both precipitation and temperature changes, was used to analyze drought characteristics. The analysis reveals significant temporal changes and spatial differences in drought patterns across southwest Bulgaria. The northeastern part of the region, including the Sofia district, exhibits the lowest risk of drought, while the central part of the region shows a tendency toward moderate and occasional low drought events. Some stations, particularly in the southern part of the region, consistently experienced more severe drought conditions (Blagoevgrad and Sandanski), as indicated by negative SPEI values in different time scales (3, 6, and 12 months). Results indicate an increased frequency of droughts during 1990–2020 compared to 1961–1990, which was driven by climate change and human activities. Across all stations and in both SPEI time scales, the period from the early to mid-1990s was characterized by significant droughts. The study of drought hazards using short-term and long-term SPEI analysis reveals different levels of drought risk and increased hazard from the northern to southern parts of the study area. The share of areas with a high drought hazard exceeds 40% of the territory in the areas with a transitional and continental-Mediterranean climate. Based on the results, the paper highlights the need to integrate drought risk assessments with regional planning to improve agricultural resilience and water resource management in response to anticipated droughts, especially in drought-prone areas such as southwest Bulgaria. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Weather and Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts (2nd Edition))
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19 pages, 4850 KiB  
Article
Assessing the Volatility of Daily Maximum Temperature across Germany between 1990 and 2022
by Elisa Jordan, Ankit Shekhar and Mana Gharun
Atmosphere 2024, 15(7), 838; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15070838 - 16 Jul 2024
Viewed by 766
Abstract
Climate change causes a global rise in mean air temperature and an increased frequency of temperature extremes. Recent studies link sharp temperature changes between consecutive days to increased mortality, reduced economic growth, and negative effects on ecosystems. This study assesses the variability of [...] Read more.
Climate change causes a global rise in mean air temperature and an increased frequency of temperature extremes. Recent studies link sharp temperature changes between consecutive days to increased mortality, reduced economic growth, and negative effects on ecosystems. This study assesses the variability of the daily maximum air temperature between two consecutive days (i.e., temperature volatility) across Germany from 1990 to 2022. Using observation-based raster data of maximum daily temperature at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution, we assess temperature volatility regarding: (1) magnitude, (2) seasonality, (3) directionality (day-to-day warming vs. cooling), and (4) trends. Further, we analyse land cover changes during the period and examine their correlation to extreme temperature volatility (Tve). The results show that Tve mostly occurred during spring and summer. The magnitude of Tve increased with distance to the coast north-west to south during all seasons and was highest during spring and summer (>10 °C). Overall, Tve was particularly associated with day-to-day cooling (in spring, summer, autumn), while in winter, >60% of days were associated with warming in north and central Germany. Less than 12% of Germany showed significant trends in median Tve associated with warming over the period. Significant trends included increases (>0.26 °C/year) and decreases (−0.09 °C/year) in extreme day-to-day warming during autumn and winter in northeastern Germany. In spring, the majority (>60%) of southern areas showed significant positive trends (up to 0.16 °C/year) in Tve associated with day-to-day cooling. During winter, summer, and autumn, trends in extreme day-to-day cooling were insignificant in over 80% of Germany. Within all land cover types, Tve predominantly varied between 6 °C and 9 °C. Changes in land cover, especially transforming coniferous forests for agricultural purposes, were accompanied by increasing Tve up to 0.49 °C. Understanding rapid temperature changes is crucial for climate change mitigation strategies and limiting the impacts on human health and on the environment. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Weather and Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts (2nd Edition))
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18 pages, 4231 KiB  
Article
The Development of a Hailstone Disdrometer and Its Preliminary Observation in Aksu, Xinjiang
by Yuanyuan Li, Xiaoxuan Mou, Juan Kang, Sihua Zhu, Yujiang Fan, Hongyun Fan, Xuhui Wei, Dan Chen, Shiqi Ren, Shengjie Jia, Jia Li, Na Li, Lingkun Ran, Kuo Zhou and Jinqiang Zhang
Atmosphere 2024, 15(7), 823; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15070823 - 9 Jul 2024
Viewed by 749
Abstract
Hailfall is a severe local weather event that can cause great economic losses as well as the loss of people’s property; however, it is still difficult for domestic meteorological stations to comprehensively observe hail, and domestic independently developed hail observation instruments are still [...] Read more.
Hailfall is a severe local weather event that can cause great economic losses as well as the loss of people’s property; however, it is still difficult for domestic meteorological stations to comprehensively observe hail, and domestic independently developed hail observation instruments are still scarce. To help enable better automatic hail observations, a new independently developed hailstone disdrometer based on the acoustic principle, which can be used to measure the hailstone number and particle size and to calculate the corresponding equivalent liquid precipitation of hailstones, is proposed in this paper. The characteristics of hailstones were preliminarily analyzed using observation data from two hailstone disdrometers installed in Aksu, Xinjiang, where three hail events were observed via the hailstone disdrometer in the summer of 2023. By analyzing the development of deep convection clouds using the Fengyun 4A satellite-based cloud-top brightness temperature, and synoptic conditions based on the fifth-generation global climate reanalysis dataset produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (the ECMWF ERA5 dataset), the hail formation mechanism was investigated in detail for one hailfall event. Accurate hail observations are an important basis for understanding spatiotemporal hail variation. The hailstone disdrometer proposed in this study offers a useful approach for domestic hail observation to provide first-hand hail information for the inspection of weather modification effects and disaster prevention and reduction. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Weather and Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts (2nd Edition))
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Planned Papers

The below list represents only planned manuscripts. Some of these manuscripts have not been received by the Editorial Office yet. Papers submitted to MDPI journals are subject to peer-review.

Evaluation of the Spatio-temporal Variation of Extreme Cold Events in Southeastern Europe Employing an Intensity-duration Model and Excess Cold Factor Severity Index

Krastina Malcheva, Lilia Bocheva, Anastassya Stoycheva, …

Recent studies have revealed a rise in extreme heat events worldwide, while extreme cold has shown a decline. It is considered highly likely that anthropogenic effects on climate could double the risk of severe heat waves by the end of the century. Although extreme heat is expected to have greater socioeconomic impacts than cold extremes, the latter contributes to a wide range of adverse effects on the environment, various economic sectors and human health. People can somewhat adapt to extreme temperatures when they experience repeated heat and cold waves, but these extreme events can have more severe health consequences when they occur earlier in the respective season or last unusually long. A few studies have recently analyzed extreme heat events on a European scale using the excess heat factor (EHF) that accounts for short-term acclimatization. This approach is also analogously applicable to extreme cold events by employing the excess cold factor (ECF). The present research aims to evaluate the spatiotemporal variations of extreme cold events in Southeastern Europe through the intensity-duration model developed for quantitative assessment of cold weather in Bulgaria. We demonstrate the suitability of indicators based on minimum temperature thresholds to evaluate the severity of extreme cold events in the period 1961–2020 both at individual stations and Köppen’s climate zones using daily temperature data from 70 selected meteorological stations. The capability of the used intensity-duration model to estimate the severity of extreme cold events has been compared with the ECF severity index on a yearly basis. The study can be regarded as a continuation of our previous research on extreme heat events and provides evidence of the suitability of implementing a combined approach when defining the hot and cold weather phenomena for early warning systems, considering the increased risk from earlier or longer extreme heat and cold events under changing climate.

 

Principal Component Analysis of Precipitation and Torrential Rainfall Regionalization in Bulgaria

Krastina Malcheva, Lilia Bocheva, Anastassya Stoycheva, …

Nowadays, anthropogenic activity is pointed out as a cause of each meteorological or hydrological event that leads to severe damage. An accurate understanding of the weather patterns causing torrential rainfall is critical in the context of climate change adaptation. The identification of rainy circulation types over Bulgaria is realized using an objective weather type classification for the 1991–2020 period and daily rainfall data from 350 meteorological stations from the network of the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology  (NIMH). Intense and heavy precipitation events (including days with rainfall ≥30, 60 and 100 mm) were related to a few major circulation types and weather patterns over the studied period. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) based on the calculated 1991–2020 monthly precipitation normals is used to detect the main seasonal patterns governing the precipitation regime in Bulgaria. The solutions with unrotated and varimax-rotated components reveal three main principal components (PCs), which are presented and discussed, along with the spatial distribution of component scores. Precipitation in the southernmost part of the country (with significant PC1 scores) is governed by Mediterranean cyclogenesis and shows maximum precipitation activity in the cold half-year, followed by minimum in the warm season. Positive PC2 scores are related to inland stations with maximum early-summer rainfall when thermal land-ocean contrasts allow for more frequent penetration of Atlantic air masses over the country. Stations with significant PC3 scores, mainly from eastern and coastal regions, reach maximum rainfall in autumn due to the specific cyclonic activity in the Eastern Mediterranean. The obtained regionalization of heavy and intense rains is compared with the traditional climatological dividing of Bulgaria into precipitation regions.

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