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Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources: Assessment and Modeling

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A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Water and Climate Change".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 June 2024) | Viewed by 20095

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Special Issue Editors

Dr. Leszek Sobkowiak

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Department of Hydrology and Water Management, Adam Mickiewicz University, 61-712 Poznań, Poland
Interests: climate change; time series analysis; river regime; water resource management; water balance; watershed hydrology; watershed management; China
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Prof. Dr. Dariusz Wrzesiński

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Department of Hydrology and Water Management, Adam Mickiewicz University, 61-712 Poznań, Poland
Interests: flow regime; flow seasonality; thermal conditions; water chemistry; ice phenomena; climate change; human activity; methods of detecting changes and classifying river regimes
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Water resources are a national source of wealth, and their availability is essential to sustain life and human activities. The amount and availability of water resources in the world varies spatially and temporally, with an increasing number of places facing severe water shortages.

It is predicted that climate change will significantly affect the spatiotemporal distribution of water resources, leading to the transformation of the water cycle in the catchment and changes in the structure of the water balance. An increase in the occurrence of deep low flows in rivers is expected, which may result in a reduction in surface water and ground water resources. In lowland catchments, evapotranspiration will increase at the expense of water resources, causing there to be a reduction. The acceleration of the hydrological cycle may lead to more and more frequent water-related extreme events including droughts and floods, and the expected changes in water resource availability may lead to periodic deficits in the water supplied to the population, as well as shortages in agriculture and forestry, which may entail severe socioeconomic losses.

Being aware of these threats, it is necessary to take actions to mitigate their future effects.

Current forecasts of water consumption trends resulting from socioeconomic development and the climatic changes that overlap with it are subject to considerable uncertainty. Climate models (global circulation of the atmosphere) and demographic and economic development models do not yet allow for precise projections of changes in the hydrological cycle and water resource availability.

This Special Issue invites researchers to present their results of new findings from the assessment and modeling of hydrological processes and water resources under the conditions of climate change, regularities in their spatiotemporal variability in relation to water management, and the related threats.

Dr. Leszek Sobkowiak
Prof. Dr. Dariusz Wrzesiński
Guest Editors

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Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Water is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

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Keywords

water resources
water use
surface water
ground water
variability
projections of change
water regime
seasonality
changes in lake water resources
modelling changes

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Related Special Issue

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources: Assessment and Modeling, 2nd Edition in Water (2 articles)

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Research

22 pages, 2671 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Projecting Irrigation Water and Crop Water Requirements for Paddies Using WEAP-MABIA under Climate Change

by Hamizah Rhymee, Shahriar Shams, Uditha Ratnayake and Ena Kartina Abdul Rahman

Water 2024, 16(17), 2498; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16172498 - 3 Sep 2024

Viewed by 1233

Abstract

Monitoring future irrigation water demand as a part of agricultural interventions is crucial to ensure food security. In this study, the impact of climate change on paddy cultivation in Brunei is investigated, focusing on the Wasan rice scheme. This research aims to project irrigation water requirement (IWR) and crop water requirement (CWR) or the main and off season using the WEAP-MABIA model. Historical data analysis over the past 30 years and future projections up to 2100 are employed to assess potential impacts. An ensemble of statistically downscaled climate models, based on seven CMIP6 GCMs under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) (SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585), was utilised to project the IWR and CWR. Using downscaled CMIP6 data, three future periods were bias-corrected using quantile delta mapping (QDM) for 2020–2046 (near future), 2047–2073 (mid future), and 2074–2100 (far future). The WEAP-MABIA model utilises a dual crop coefficient approach to evaluate crop evapotranspiration (ET_c), a critical factor in computing IWR. Results indicate that changes in future temperatures will lead to higher average ET_c. Consequently, this results in elevated demands in irrigation water during the off season, and it is especially prominent in high-emission scenarios (SSP370 and SSP585). While the main season experiences a relatively stable or slightly increasing IWR trend, the off season consistently shows a decreasing trend in IWR. Moreover, the off season benefits from substantial rainfall increases, effectively reducing IWR despite the rise in both maximum and minimum temperatures. This study also highlights some recommendations for implementing possible improvements in irrigation management to address the effects of climate change on rice cultivation in the region. Future investigation should focus on enhancing crop yield predictions under climate change by integrating a dynamic crop growth model that adjusts for changing crop coefficient (Kc) values. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources: Assessment and Modeling)

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22 pages, 5676 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Projections on the Spatiotemporal Bioclimatic Change over the Phytogeographical Regions of Greece by the Emberger Index

by Ioannis Charalampopoulos, Fotoula Droulia, Ioannis P. Kokkoris and Panayotis Dimopoulos

Water 2024, 16(14), 2070; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16142070 - 22 Jul 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 921

Abstract

Unquestionably, the rapidly changing climate and, therefore, alterations in the associated bioclimate, constitute an alarming reality with implications for daily practice and natural capital management. This research displays the present and projected bioclimate evolution over Greece’s phytogeographical regions. For this purpose, ultrahigh-resolution computation results on the spatial distribution of the Emberger index’s Q2 classes of bioclimatic characterization are analyzed and illustrated for the first time. The assessments are performed over the reference period (1970–2000) and two future time frames (2021–2040; 2041–2060) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. By 2060 and under the extreme RCP8.5, intense xerothermic trends are demonstrated owing to the resulting significant spatial evolution mainly of the Arid–Hot, Semi-Arid–Very Hot, Semi-Arid–Hot, and Semi-Arid–Temperate Q2 classes, respectively, over the phytogeographical regions of Kiklades (up to 29% occupation), Kriti and Karpathos (up to 30%), West Aegean Islands (up to 26%), North East (up to 56%), and North Central (up to 31%). The RCP8.5 long-term period exhibits the strongest impacts over approximately the right half of the Greek territory, with the bioclimate appearing more dry–thermal in the future. In conclusion, the Emberger index provides an in-depth view of the Greek area’s bioclimatic regime and the potential alterations due to climate change per phytogeographical region. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources: Assessment and Modeling)

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20 pages, 6132 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Assessment of Different Frameworks for Addressing Climate Change Impact on Crop Production and Water Requirement

by Ranjeet K. Jha, Prasanta K. Kalita, Praveen Kumar, Paul C. Davidson and Rajkumar Jat

Water 2024, 16(14), 1992; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16141992 - 14 Jul 2024

Viewed by 898

Abstract

Various methodologies are used to estimate the impact of changing climatic factors, such as precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation, on crop production and water demand. In this study, the changes in rice yield, water demand, and crop phenology were estimated with varying CO₂ concentration and an ensemble of general circulation models (GCMs), using a decision support system for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT), a crop growth model. The measured CO₂ concentration of 400 ppm from the Keeling curve, was used as the default CO₂ concentration to estimate yield, water demand, and phenology. These outputs, obtained with the default concentration, were compared with the results from climate change scenarios’ concentrations. Further, the outputs corresponding to the ensembled GCMs’ climate data were obtained, and the results were compared with the ensembled crop model outputs simulated with each GCM. The yield was found to increase with the increase in CO₂ concentration up to a certain threshold, whereas water demand and phenology were observed to decrease with the increase in CO₂ concentration. The two approaches of the ensemble technique to obtain final outputs from DSSAT results did not show a large difference in the predictions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources: Assessment and Modeling)

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19 pages, 4697 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Water Governance in an Era of Climate Change: A Model to Assess the Shifting Irrigation Demand and Its Effect on Water Management in the Western United States

by Dylan R. Hedden-Nicely and Kendra E. Kaiser

Water 2024, 16(14), 1963; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16141963 - 11 Jul 2024

Viewed by 945

Abstract

Communities throughout the United States have come to rely upon agriculture as a pillar of their political integrity, economic security, and health and wellbeing. Climatic conditions in the western portion of the United States necessitate most lands be irrigated to be arable. As a result, a major portion of the economy of the United States, and by extension the world economy, is driven by the continued viability of western United States water law and policy. Furthermore, due to the strong interrelationship between anthropogenic consumptive uses, streamflows, and wetland/riparian area ecology, irrigation demand has a strong effect on stream morphology, quality, and biology for aquatic species. Western water management is a complex mosaic that is controlled by western state, federal, and tribal governments. Each of these systems of law have vulnerabilities to climate change, which is well understood to cause increasing water supply scarcity. This articledemonstrates the risks climate change poses to our management of irrigation water demand, as well as the interrelationship between water supply and demand. Due to the shared nature of the resource, this article addresses both tribal reserved rights and state-based rights using data from Indian reservations that either contain and/or are closely adjacent to non-tribal agricultural communities. Those data are used in a systems–dynamics model to integrate crop–water requirement estimation techniques with climate change estimates and a Monte Carlo analysis to assess how irrigation demand could change because of changing temperature, precipitation, incoming radiation, and wind speed caused by climate change. Results indicate that climate change will cause increases in irrigation requirements at most locations. Further, climate change is expected to significantly increase seasonal variability in many locations. The model provides a useful tool based upon publicly available data that will allow individual water users to make conservation decisions necessary to preserve their water rights as the climate changes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources: Assessment and Modeling)

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16 pages, 2859 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Assessment of Changes in Hydrometeorological Indicators and Intra-Annual River Runoff in the Ile River Basin

by Rustam G. Abdrakhimov, Aigul N. Akzharkynova, Javier Rodrigo-Ilarri, Kh Md Nahiduzzaman, Makpal E. Dautaliyeva and María-Elena Rodrigo-Clavero

Water 2024, 16(13), 1921; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16131921 - 5 Jul 2024

Viewed by 1048

Abstract

Water management strategies in the Ile River basin (Republic of Kazakhstan) have traditionally relied on historical data without fully considering the potential impacts of climate change. This gap can lead to underestimating the changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and runoff, hindering effective water resource management. This study aimed to analyze how a changing climate is affecting the Ile River basin’s water regime. Specifically, it investigated trends in temperature, precipitation, and runoff within the basin, emphasizing the importance of incorporating these intra-annual variations when planning water management strategies and hydraulic structures. A detailed analysis of the long-term data was conducted, focusing on changes in meteorological indicators. This included average air temperatures and annual precipitation for elevations above and below 1500 m during cold and warm periods. The analysis aimed to identify and quantify trends of increase or decrease. Meteorological stations were strategically chosen to represent both arid and humid areas within the basin, accounting for the region’s significant altitude variations. The investigation revealed several key findings. Rising average annual air temperatures are leading to a larger area experiencing snowmelt and a longer warm period within the runoff formation zone. This directly impacts the water balance of the basin. Additionally, an increase in total annual precipitation, particularly during the cold season within the runoff formation zone, suggests a potential for future water resource growth, assuming that these trends persist. This study highlights the importance of considering intra-annual variations in water regimes when developing water management strategies. The observed changes in temperature and precipitation patterns within the Ile River basin necessitate adjustments to existing plans to ensure sustainable water resource management in a changing climate. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources: Assessment and Modeling)

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51 pages, 16488 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A CMIP6 Multi-Model Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Severe Meteorological Droughts through Multiple Drought Indices—Case Study of Iran’s Metropolises

by Rasoul Afsari, Mohammad Nazari-Sharabian, Ali Hosseini and Moses Karakouzian

Water 2024, 16(5), 711; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16050711 - 28 Feb 2024

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1313

Abstract

This study extensively explores the impact of climate change on meteorological droughts within metropolises in Iran. Focused on Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, Karaj, Shiraz, and Tabriz, this research employed CMIP6 climate models under varying climate change scenarios (SSPs) to forecast severe meteorological droughts spanning the period from 2025 to 2100. The investigation utilized a diverse set of drought indices (SPI, DI, PN, CZI, MCZI, RAI, and ZSI) to assess the drought severity in each city. This study is crucial as it addresses the pressing concerns of rapidly decreasing water levels in Iran’s dams, serious declines in underground aquifers, and the compounding issues of land subsidence and soil erosion due to excessive groundwater withdrawal in the face of severe droughts. This study culminated in the generation of box plots and heatmaps based on the results. These visual representations elucidated the distribution of the drought values under different indices and scenarios and provided a depiction of the probability of severe drought occurrences until the end of the century for each city. The resulting findings serve as invaluable tools, furnishing policymakers with informed insights to proactively manage and fortify metropolitan resilience against the evolving challenges posed by a changing climate. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources: Assessment and Modeling)

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16 pages, 1841 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural and Industrial Water Demands in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM)

by Qian Zhou, Yating Zhong, Meijing Chen and Weili Duan

Water 2023, 15(24), 4225; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15244225 - 8 Dec 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1520

Abstract

As a politically and culturally important city cluster, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region is the most prominent area in China where the imbalance between the supply and demand of water resources restricts the sustainable and healthy development of the regional social economy. In the context of global warming, research into water demand prediction that takes climate change into consideration would be more in line with the strategic goal of the low-carbon sustainable development of future cities. At the same time, the prediction of agricultural water demands against a background of climate change is urgently needed, while industrial water consumption is weakly correlated with climate change, an investigation of the statistical relationship between the two is needed. Thus, in this paper, future climate data from the BTH region under the scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were generated using a statistical downscaling model, and then coupled with agricultural and industrial water demand prediction models to simulate and analyze the impact of climate change on the agricultural and industrial water demands, respectively. The results show that during the forecast period (2020–2035), the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET₀) growth rates in the Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei areas under the RCP2.6 scenario are 1.438 mm·a⁻¹, 1.393 mm·a⁻¹ and 2.059 mm·a⁻¹, respectively. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, they are 2.252 mm·a⁻¹, 2.310 mm·a⁻¹ and 2.827 mm·a⁻¹, respectively. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, they are 3.123 mm·a⁻¹, 2.310 mm·a⁻¹ and 2.141 mm·a⁻¹, respectively. Furthermore, under each climate scenario, the increase in evapotranspiration in the Hebei area is the largest, followed by that in the Tianjin area, and that in the Beijing area is the smallest. For water consumption per CNY 10,000 of industrial added value during the forecast period, under the three different climate scenarios, a downward trend is seen in the Beijing area, with rates of 0.158, 0.153 and 0.110, respectively, but in the Tianjin area, there is an upward trend, with an upward tendency in rates of 0.170, 0.087 and 0.071, and an upward trend in the Hebei area, with an upward tendency in rates of 0.254, 0.071 and 0.036, respectively. This study will help the BTH region to rationally allocate agricultural and industrial water against the background of future climate change, and strengthen the coordination and cooperation between the different regions to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the cities. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources: Assessment and Modeling)

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23 pages, 9255 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Future Bioclimatic Change of Agricultural and Natural Areas in Central Europe: An Ultra-High Resolution Analysis of the De Martonne Index

by Ioannis Charalampopoulos, Fotoula Droulia, Ioannis P. Kokkoris and Panayotis Dimopoulos

Water 2023, 15(14), 2563; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15142563 - 13 Jul 2023

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1627

Abstract

Bioclimate alteration unquestionably poses a current but also a potential future threat to natural and agricultural ecosystems and their services. In this scope, the present and future bioclimatic footprint of the Central European territory is investigated and presented. For the first time, an ultrahigh spatial resolution (<250 m) of the de Martonne index is analyzed over the entire area, as well as for individual countries (Austria, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia). The research is performed for the reference period (1981–2010) and for three time series (2011–2040; 2041–2070; 2071–2100) under two emissions scenarios (SSP370 and SSP585) for the determination of the potential short-term and distant future bioclimatic change trends. Projection results reveal higher xerothermic trends over the lowland agricultural areas mostly in 2071–2100 and under the extreme SSP585, with the classes’ spatial distributions going from 0.0% to 2.3% for the semi-dry class and from 0.0% to 30.1% for the presiding Mediterranean class. Additionally, more than half of the territory’s agricultural surface area (53.4%) is foreseen to be depending on supplementary irrigation by 2100. Overall, more intense dry thermal conditions are expected to impact the agricultural areas of the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary with the latter emerging as particularly vulnerable. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources: Assessment and Modeling)

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23 pages, 16126 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Thermal State of the North Atlantic Ocean and Hydrological Droughts in the Warta River Catchment in Poland during 1951–2020

by Andrzej A. Marsz, Leszek Sobkowiak, Anna Styszyńska, Dariusz Wrzesiński and Adam Perz

Water 2023, 15(14), 2547; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15142547 - 12 Jul 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1262

Abstract

This study presents the direct relationships between changes in the annual surface temperature of the North Atlantic (SST) and the number of days per year experiencing low flows in the Warta River catchment (WRC) in Central Europe, Poland, in the multi-annual period of 1951–2020. The number of days experiencing low flows (T_LF) was used to describe the conditions of hydrological drought in the WRC. Moderately strong (r~0.5) but statistically highly significant (p < 0.001) relationships were found between T_LF and the SST in the subtropical (30–40° N, 60–40° W) and subpolar North Atlantic (70° N, 10° W–10° E). With the increase in the annual SST in these parts of the North Atlantic, the number of days in a year experiencing low flows in the WRC also increased. It was determined that besides synchronous (i.e., in the same year) relationships between T_LF and SST, asynchronous relations also occurred: the SST changes were one year ahead of the T_LF changes. With the increase in the SST in the subtropical and subpolar North Atlantic, the sunshine duration and air temperature in the WRC increased, while the relative humidity decreased. The relationships between precipitation in the WRC and SST were negative (from −0.04 to −0.14), but statistically insignificant (p > 0.2). This indicates that the impact of SST changes on T_LF in the WRC is mainly caused by the shaping of the amount of surface evaporation, which strongly increases in years of high SST, and the climatic water balance becomes negative, resulting in an increase in extremely low flows. The analysis of the causes of these relationships shows that the SST changes in the North Atlantic control, through changes in the height of the geopotential (h500), changes in the atmospheric circulation over Europe. In the periods of SST h500 growth over Central Europe, the atmospheric pressure (SLP) increases. That area is more frequently than average under the influence of the Azores High; this leads to an increase in the frequency of anticyclonic weather. A significant increase in the number of T_LFs and prolonged periods of hydrological drought in the WRC after 2000 are associated with a strong increase in the SST in the area of the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources: Assessment and Modeling)

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15 pages, 6196 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Flood-Triggering Rainfall and Potential Losses—The Copula-Based Approach on the Example of the Upper Nysa Kłodzka River

by Adam Perz, Dariusz Wrzesiński, Waldemar W. Budner and Leszek Sobkowiak

Water 2023, 15(10), 1958; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15101958 - 22 May 2023

Viewed by 5691

Abstract

Floods are natural phenomena, inextricably related to river regimes, which can threaten human health and life, the environment, cultural heritage, economic activity and infrastructure. The aim of the research is to assess the connection between rainfall and river flood risk. The proposed methodology is presented on the example of the upper Nysa Kłodzka River (NKR) catchment and Kłodzko town located on NKR, which are two of the most flood-prone areas in the Odra River basin. The methodology is based on the well-established methods of potential flood losses (PFL) estimation and the copula-based model, allowing an assessment of connections between rainfall and flood losses in a probabilistic way. The results are presented using the ‘synchronicity’ measure. Seventeen significant summer (rainfall-driven) flood waves were selected, for which PFL were estimated and cumulative rainfall was calculated for 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 h preceding the flood peak. It was found that the synchronicity of PFL and the 24 h rainfall was the lowest among the analyzed variants, while for the 48 to 120 h rainfall the highest synchronicity was identified at precipitation gauge Podzamek. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources: Assessment and Modeling)

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17 pages, 4191 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Evaluation of Artificial Precipitation Enhancement Using UNET-GRU Algorithm for Rainfall Estimation

by Renfeng Liu, Huabing Zhou, Dejun Li, Liping Zeng and Peihua Xu

Water 2023, 15(8), 1585; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15081585 - 19 Apr 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2640

Abstract

The evaluation of the effects of artificial precipitation enhancement remains one of the most important and challenging issues in the fields of meteorology. Rainfall is the most important evaluation metric for artificial precipitation enhancement, which is mainly achieved through physics-based models that simulate physical phenomena and data-driven statistical models. The series of effect evaluation methods requires the selection of a comparison area for effect comparison, and idealized assumptions and simplifications have been made for the actual cloud precipitation process, leading to unreliable quantitative evaluation results of artificial precipitation effects. This paper proposes a deep learning-based method (UNET-GRU) to quantitatively evaluate the effect of artificial rainfall. By comparing the residual values obtained from inverting the natural evolution grid rainfall of the same area under the same artificial rainfall conditions with the actual rainfall amount after artificial rainfall operations, the effect of artificial rainfall can be quantitatively evaluated, effectively solving the problem of quantitative evaluation of artificial precipitation effects. Wuhan and Shiyan in China are selected to represent typical plains and mountainous areas, respectively, and the method is evaluated using 6-min resolution radar weather data from 2017 to 2020. During the experiment, we utilized the UNET-GRU algorithm and developed separate algorithms for comparison against common persistent baselines (i.e., the next-time data of the training data). The prediction of mean squared error (MSE) for these three algorithms was significantly lower than that of the baseline data. Moreover, the indicators for these algorithms were excellent, further demonstrating their efficacy. In addition, the residual results of the estimated 7-h grid rainfall were compared with the actual recorded rainfall to evaluate the effectiveness of artificial precipitation. The results showed that the estimated rainfall was consistent with the recorded precipitation for that year, indicating that deep learning methods can be successfully used to evaluate the impact of artificial precipitation. The results demonstrate that this method improves the accuracy of effect evaluation and enhances the generalization ability of the evaluation scheme. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources: Assessment and Modeling)

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