Solar and Wind Power and Energy Forecasting

This paper proposes a method based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and the detection of Wind Energy Extraction Latency for a given wind turbine (WT) designed for ultra-short-term (UST) wind energy forecasting over complex terrain. The core of the suggested modeling approach is the Wind Spatial Extrapolation model (WiSpEx). Measured vertical wind profile data are used as the inlet for stationary CFD simulations to reconstruct the wind flow over a wind farm (WF). This wind field reconstruction helps operators obtain the wind speed and available wind energy at the hub height of the installed WTs, enabling the estimation of their energy production. WT power output is calculated by accounting for the average time it takes for the turbine to adjust its power output in response to changes in wind speed. The proposed method is evaluated with data from two WTs (E40-500, NM 750/48). The wind speed dataset used for this study contains ramp events and wind speeds that range in magnitude from 3 m/s to 18 m/s. The results show that the proposed method can achieve a Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) of 8.44% for E40-500 and 9.26% for NM 750/48, even with significant simplifications, while the SMAPE of the persistence model is above 15.03% for E40-500 and 16.12% for NM 750/48. Each forecast requires less than two minutes of computational time on a low-cost commercial platform. This performance is comparable to state-of-the-art methods and significantly faster than time-dependent simulations. Such simulations necessitate excessive computational resources, making them impractical for online forecasting. Full article

High-resolution wind datasets are crucial for ultra-short-term wind forecasting. Penetration of WT installations near urban areas that are constantly changing will motivate researchers to understand how to adapt their models to terrain changes to reduce forecasting errors. Although CFD modelling is not widely used for ultra-short-term forecasting purposes, it can overcome such difficulties. In this research, we will spatially extrapolate vertical profile LIDAR wind measurements into a 3D wind velocity field over a large and relatively complex terrain with the use of stationary CFD simulations. The extrapolated field is validated with measurements at a hub height of three WTs located in the area. The accuracy of the model increases with height because of the terrain anomalies and turbulence effects. The maximum MAE of wind velocity at WT hub height is 0.81 m/s, and MAPE is 7.98%. Our model remains accurate even with great simplifications and scarce measurements for the complex terrain conditions of our case study. The models’ performance under such circumstances establishes it as a promising tool for the evolution of ultra-short-term forecasting as well as for the evaluation of new WT installations by providing valuable data for all models. Full article

Long-term solar wind sequence forecasting is essential for understanding the influence of the solar wind on celestial settings, predicting variations in solar wind parameters, and identifying patterns of solar activity. The intrinsic erratic temporal features of solar wind datasets present significant challenges to the development of solar wind factor estimate techniques. In response to these challenges, we present MoCoformer, a novel model based on the Transformer model in deep learning that integrates the Multi-Mode Decomp Block and Mode Independence Attention. The Multi-Mode Decomp Block employs an optimized version of variational mode decomposition technology to flexibly handle irregular features by adaptively decomposing and modeling the impact of sudden events on the temporal dynamics, enhancing its ability to manage non-stationary and irregular features effectively. Meanwhile, the Mode Independence Attention module computes attention independently for each mode, capturing the correlation between sequences and mitigating the negative impact of irregular features on time series prediction. The experimental results on solar wind datasets demonstrate that MoCoformer significantly outperforms current state-of-the-art methods in time series forecasting, showcasing superior predictive performance. This underscores the resilience of MoCoformer in handling the intricate, irregular temporal characteristics of solar wind data, rendering it a valuable instrument for enhancing the understanding and forecasting of solar wind dynamics. Full article

Jordan faces significant, immediate challenges of enhancing energy security while mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. One of the most promising approaches to achieve sustainable development, energy security, and environmental conservation is to increase the integration of renewable energy into electricity generation. To this end, the Jordanian government aims to expand investments in the green energy sector, with solar and wind energy expected to play a crucial role in meeting energy demands and promoting environmental sustainability. This paper aims to examine the distinct dynamics, challenges, obstacles, and potential solutions related to establishing community solar and wind farms in suburban areas of Jordan. It seeks to highlight the opportunities and barriers influencing the adoption of sustainable energy in the country. Evaluation results from engaging 320 key stakeholders were obtained through a questionnaire, and after comprehensive analysis, it became evident that the benefits and positive aspects of solar and wind farms outweigh their drawbacks and obstacles. These insights can be useful in guiding policies and practices to make renewable energy community projects a reality within Jordan’s suburban areas. Additionally, the findings may serve as a valuable benchmark for other regions facing similar challenges in their pursuit of a sustainable energy future. Full article

This study aims to optimize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model regarding the choice of the best planetary boundary layer (PBL) physical scheme and to evaluate the model’s performance for wind energy assessment and mapping over the Iranian territory. In this initiative, five PBL and surface layer parameterization schemes were tested, and their performance was evaluated via comparison with observational wind data. The study used two-way nesting domains with spatial resolutions of 15 km and 5 km to represent atmospheric circulation patterns affecting the study area. Additionally, a seventeen-year simulation (2004–2020) was conducted, producing wind datasets for the entire Iranian territory. The accuracy of the WRF model was assessed by comparing its results with observations from multiple sites and with the high-resolution Global Wind Atlas. Statistical parameters and wind power density were calculated from the simulated data and compared with observations to evaluate wind energy potential at specific sites. The model’s performance was sensitive to the horizontal resolution of the terrain data, with weaker simulations for wind speeds below 3 m/s and above 10 m/s. The results confirm that the WRF model provides reliable wind speed data for realistic wind energy assessment studies in Iran. The model-generated wind resource map identifies areas with high wind (wind speed > 5.6 m/s) potential that are currently without wind farms or Aeolic parks for exploitation of the wind energy potential. The Sistan Basin in eastern Iran was identified as the area with the highest wind power density, while areas west of the Zagros Mountains and in southwest Iran showed high aeolian potential during summer. A novelty of this research is the application of the WRF model in an area characterized by high topographical complexities and specific geographical features. The results provide practical solutions and valuable insights for industry stakeholders, facilitating informed decision making, reducing uncertainties, and promoting the effective utilization of wind energy resources in the region. Full article

The complex environmental impact makes it difficult to predict wind speed with high precision for multiple wind turbines. Most existing research methods model the temporal dependence of wind speeds, ignoring the spatial correlation between wind turbines. In this paper, we propose a multi-wind turbine wind speed prediction model based on Weighted Diffusion Graph Convolution and Gated Attention Network (WDGCGAN). To address the strong nonlinear correlation problem among multiple wind turbines, we use the maximal information coefficient (MIC) method to calculate the correlation weights between wind turbines and construct a weighted graph for multiple wind turbines. Next, by applying Diffusion Graph Convolution (DGC) transformation to the weight matrix of the weighted graph, we obtain the spatial graph diffusion matrix of the wind farm to aggregate the high-order neighborhood information of the graph nodes. Finally, by combining the DGC with the gated attention recurrent unit (GAU), we establish a spatio-temporal model for multi-turbine wind speed prediction. Experiments on the wind farm data in Massachusetts show that the proposed method can effectively aggregate the spatio-temporal information of wind turbine nodes and improve the prediction accuracy of multiple wind speeds. In the 1h prediction task, the average RMSE of the proposed model is 28% and 33.1% lower than that of the Long Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), respectively. Full article

Predicting photovoltaic (PV) power generation is a crucial task in the field of clean energy. Achieving high-accuracy PV power prediction requires addressing two challenges in current deep learning methods: (1) In photovoltaic power generation prediction, traditional deep learning methods often generate predictions for long sequences one by one, significantly impacting the efficiency of model predictions. As the scale of photovoltaic power stations expands and the demand for predictions increases, this sequential prediction approach may lead to slow prediction speeds, making it difficult to meet real-time prediction requirements. (2) Feature extraction is a crucial step in photovoltaic power generation prediction. However, traditional feature extraction methods often focus solely on surface features, and fail to capture the inherent relationships between various influencing factors in photovoltaic power generation data, such as light intensity, temperature, and more. To overcome these limitations, this paper proposes a mid-term PV power prediction model that combines Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) and Informer models. This fusion model leverages the multi-output capability of the Informer model to ensure the timely generation of predictions for long sequences. Additionally, it harnesses the feature extraction ability of the GCN model from nodes, utilizing graph convolutional modules to extract feature information from the ‘query’ and ‘key’ components within the attention mechanism. This approach provides more reliable feature information for mid-term PV power prediction, thereby ensuring the accuracy of long sequence predictions. Results demonstrate that the GCN–Informer model significantly reduces prediction errors while improving the precision of power generation forecasting compared to the original Informer model. Overall, this research enhances the prediction accuracy of PV power generation and contributes to advancing the field of clean energy. Full article

Considering global warming and environmental problems, the importance of renewable energy sources is increasing day by day. In particular, the effects of wind and solar power, which are variable renewable power sources, on the power system necessitate their evaluation in terms of the reliability of the power system. Photovoltaic panels, which enable the conversion of solar power into electrical power with semiconductors, have started to take an important place in global energy investments today. Photovoltaic power plants increase the demand for this energy source with continuous energy conversion depending on sunshine duration and radiation intensity. Among the renewable energy sources, the most easily utilized energy source, regardless of geographical conditions, is the sun. To prevent the energy production of PV power plants from being interrupted, it is necessary to address and analyze all kinds of faults that will affect power production in order to increase the reliability of the system. Academic studies in this field are generally grouped under two topics: classification of faults or modeling of electrical faults. Based on this, in this study, the problems that occur during the installation and operation of photovoltaic systems are classified, and the relevant faults are modeled and simulated in MATLAB Simulink version 23.2 (R2023b). Thus, a scientific approach to the problems of photovoltaic power plant operating conditions has been gained, which will be the basis for academic studies. Full article

Doubly fed induction generators (DFIG) find extensive application in variable-speed wind power plants, providing notable advantages such as cost-effectiveness, operational flexibility across varying speeds, and enhanced power quality. This research focuses on the control of DFIGs employed in variable-speed wind turbine configurations. A suitable mathematical model is chosen for representative systems following a comprehensive review of contemporary research. Subsequent analysis reveals the instability of the open-loop time response of the system. To address this instability, the initial approach involves the implementation of the conventional model predictive controller (MPC). However, the outcomes indicate that this controller falls short of delivering satisfactory performance despite the enhanced stability. In the subsequent phase, efforts are made to mitigate the impact of wind input variability by utilizing the Kalman filter, given its effectiveness in handling high variability. Following this, a novel methodology is introduced, which combines nonlinear MPC with the Lyapunov function. This method is based on the nonlinear model of the system. By using the Lyapunov function in the nonlinear MPC structure, the stability of the designed controller is guaranteed. To validate the proposed control approach, the results are compared with PID based controller in MATLAB/Simulink. The simulation results showed that the output variables of the modeled DFIG system achieve stability within a reasonable timeframe applying the input. Full article

In recent years, wind energy has become remarkably popular among renewable energy sources due to its low installation costs and easy maintenance. Having high energy potential is of great importance in the selection of regions where wind energy investments will be made. In this study, the wind power potential in Çanakkale Province, located in the northwest of Türkiye, is examined, and the wind speed is estimated using hourly and daily data over a one-year period. The data, including 12 different meteorological parameters, were taken from the Turkish State Meteorological Service. The two-parameter Weibull and Rayleigh distributions, which are the most widely preferred models in wind energy studies, are employed to estimate the wind power potential using hourly wind speed data. The graphical method is implemented to calculate the shape (k) and scale (c) parameters of the Weibull distribution function. Daily average wind speed estimation is performed with artificial neural network–genetic algorithm (ANN-GA) and ANN–particle swarm optimization (ANN-PSO) hybrid approaches. The proposed hybrid ANN-GA and ANN-PSO algorithms provide correlation coefficient values of 0.94839 and 0.94042, respectively, indicating that the predicted and measured wind speed values are notably close. Statistical error indices reveal that the ANN-GA model outperforms the ANN-PSO model. Full article

The intermittent and random nature of wind brings great challenges to the accurate prediction of wind power; a single model is insufficient to meet the requirements of ultra-short-term wind power prediction. Although ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) can be used to extract the time series features of the original wind power data, the number of its modes will increase with the complexity of the original data. Too many modes are unnecessary, making the prediction model constructed based on the sub-models too complex. An entropy ensemble empirical mode decomposition (eEEMD) method based on information entropy is proposed in this work. Fewer components with significant feature differences are obtained using information entropy to reconstruct sub-sequences. The long short-term memory (LSTM) model is suitable for prediction after the decomposition of time series. All the modes are trained with the same deep learning framework LSTM. In view of the different features of each mode, models should be trained differentially for each mode; a rule is designed to determine the training error of each mode according to its average value. In this way, the model prediction accuracy and efficiency can make better tradeoffs. The predictions of different modes are reconstructed to obtain the final prediction results. The test results from a wind power unit show that the proposed eEEMD-LSTM has higher prediction accuracy compared with single LSTM and EEMD-LSTM, and the results based on Bayesian ridge regression (BR) and support vector regression (SVR) are the same; eEEMD-LSTM exhibits better performance. Full article

The accurate detection of wind power outliers plays a crucial role in wind power forecasting, while the inherited strong randomness and high fluctuations bring great challenges to this issue. This work investigates the way to improve the outlier detection accuracy based on support vector machine (SVM). Although SVM can achieve good results for outlier detection in theory, its performance is heavily dependent on the hyper-parameters. Parameter optimization is not an easy task due to its complex nonlinear multi-optimum nature; an improved Harris hawk optimization (IHHO) is proposed to optimize the parameters of SVM for more accurate outlier detection. HHO takes the cooperative behavior and chasing style of Harris’ hawks in nature called surprise pounce and can effectively search the optimal one in large parameter space, but it tends to fall into local optimum. To solve this issue, an improved Harris hawk optimization algorithm (IHHO) was proposed to obtain the optimal parameters of SVM. First, Hammersley sequence initialization is carried out to acquire good initial solutions. Then, a nonlinear factor control mode and an adaptive Gaussian–Cauchy mutation perturbation strategy are proposed to avoid getting trapped in local optima. In this way, a novel wind power outlier detection method named IHHO-SVM was constructed. The results on several wind power data with outliers show that IHHO-SVM outperforms SVM and HHO-SVM, which achieves the highest average F1 score of 96.63% and exhibits the smallest standard deviation. Compared to commonly used models for detecting outliers in wind power, such as isolation forest (IF), local outlier factor (LOF), SVM with grey wolf optimization (GWO-SVM), and SVM with particle swarm optimization (PSO-SVM), the proposed IHHO-SVM model shows the best overall performance with precision, recall, and F1 scores of 95.76%, 96.94%, and 96.35%, respectively. Full article

Time-of-use pricing in retail electricity markets implies that wholesale market scarcity becomes easily communicated to end consumers. Yet, it is not well-understood if and how the price formation process in retail electricity markets will help to reward the demand for operational flexibility due to growth in intermittent generation. To contribute to this discussion, this paper develops a partial equilibrium model of the retail electricity market calibrated to Chinese data. The paper finds that tariffs in this market may not be significantly suppressed by growth in near-zero costs renewable sources when controlling for flexibility restrictions on thermal generation assets and when a significant curtailment of variable renewable resources exists in the market. In addition, it shows that the price formation process in retail electricity markets which controls for flexibility restrictions on thermal generation while allowing for consumers to respond slowly to price changes is a feasible strategy to reward the demand for operational flexibility. Finally, the paper reveals that while integrating intermittent generation beyond levels which the available storage capacities can accommodate may result in losses to producers, benefits to consumers may offset these losses, leading to overall welfare gains. Full article

South Africa is currently grappling with a national energy crisis and the high infrastructure costs associated with expanding the national grid to remote areas. Simultaneously, the government has made substantial efforts to harness renewable energy technologies, particularly wind energy. The average wind speed in a specific region significantly influences the energy yield from wind turbines. The vast open inland terrains, mountainous regions, and coastal areas in the Northern Cape, Eastern Cape, and Western Cape provinces of South Africa possess the most substantial wind potential. It is imperative to initiate wind energy projects in these provinces to cater to a significant portion of the local electricity demand, especially in remote areas disconnected from the national grid. Wind energy generation is inherently stochastic, subject to variations in both time and space. Consequently, it is essential to gain a comprehensive understanding of the local wind patterns to assess the feasibility of utilizing wind resources. In the Eastern Cape Province, the Mthatha area still lags in household electrification, presenting an opportunity to electrify some households using wind energy. This study aimed to evaluate the wind resource potential for Mthatha area, utilizing data spanning from 2018 to 2023, provided by the South African Weather Services. Two distribution models, the two-parameter Weibull and three-parameter Weibull, were employed to characterize the provided wind data. To determine the parameters associated with each distribution model, two estimation methods, the Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM) and the Method of Moments (MOM), were utilized. The performance of these distribution models was assessed using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) statistical indicator. The results showed that Mthatha area predominantly experiences low wind speeds, with an annual average wind speed of 3.30 m/s and an overall wind power density of approximately 48.48 W/m². The prevailing winds predominantly originate from the south and east–southeast directions. Consequently, Mthatha is recommended for stand-alone applications, with the added suggestion of augmented wind turbines for the area. Full article

This paper proposes and validates a data-driven minute-ahead forecast model for photovoltaic (PV) generation, which is essential for real-time micro-grid scheduling. Unlike day-ahead PV forecasts that heavily rely on weather forecast information, our proposed model does not require such data as it operates in an ultra-short-term time domain. Instead, the model leverages the generation data of the target PV sector and its adjacent sectors to capture short-term factors that affect electricity generation, such as the movement of clouds. The proposed model employs a long short-term memory (LSTM) network to process the data. By conducting experiments with real PV site data, we demonstrate that the information from adjacent PV sectors improves the accuracy of minute-ahead PV generation forecasts by 3.66% in the mean squared error index and 1.19% in the mean absolute error index compared to the model without adjacent sector information. Full article

Effective operation of a microgrid depends critically on accurate forecasting of its components. Recently, internet forecasting competitions have been used to determine the best methods for energy forecasting, with some competitions having a special focus on microgrids and COVID-19 energy-use forecasting. This paper describes forecasting for the IEEE Computational Intelligence Society 3rd Technical Challenge, which required predicting solar and building loads of a microgrid system at Monash University for the month of November 2020. The forecast achieved the lowest error rate in the competition. We review the literature on recent energy forecasting competitions and metrics and explain how the solution drew from top-ranked solutions in previous energy forecasting competitions such as the Global Energy Forecasting Competition series. The techniques can be reapplied in other forecasting endeavours, while approaches to some of the time-series forecasting are more ad hoc and specific to the competition. Novel thresholding approaches were used to improve the quality of the input data. As the training and evaluation phase of the challenge occurred during COVID-19 lockdown and reopening, the building demand was subject to pandemic-related effects. Finally, we assess other data sources which would have improved the model forecast skill such as data from different numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, solar observations, and high-resolution price and demand data in the vicinity of the campus. Full article

Future wind energy potential over Portugal is assessed, using wind speed data from a WRF regional simulation under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2046–2065 and 2081–2100. Data from a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble were also used to assess future changes in the Euro-Atlantic large-scale circulation. CMIP6 results have shown a southward displacement of the mid-latitude jet stream during winter, and a northward displacement during spring, summer, and autumn, which causes the northern winds to strengthen during summer along the north-western Iberian coast. Furthermore, in 2046–2065 the wind power density (WPD) should increase between 25% and 50% off the northwest coast of Portugal and in the Serra da Estrela mountain range during summer, which is in agreement with the CMIP6 global ensemble projections. Analyses of WPD’s 2046–2065 daily variability of offshore north-western Portugal reveal a variability increase during winter, spring and summer, as well as more intense extreme WPD events, and less intense extreme events during autumn. The WPD’s 2046–2065 inter-annual variability should increase off the northwest coast, and decrease along the central western and southern coasts, whereas it should increase in the entire studied area in 2081–2100, apart from the northern mountain regions and Cape Raso. Full article

To increase the accuracy of photovoltaic (PV) power prediction, meteorological data measured at a plant’s target location are widely used. If observation data are missing, public data such as automated synoptic observing systems (ASOS) and automatic weather stations (AWS) operated by the government can be effectively utilized. However, if the public weather station is located far from the target location, uncertainty in the prediction is expected to increase owing to the difference in distance. To solve this problem, we propose a power output prediction process based on inverse distance weighting interpolation (IDW), a spatial statistical technique that can estimate the values of unsampled locations. By demonstrating the proposed process, we tried to improve the prediction of photovoltaic power in random locations without data. The forecasting accuracy depends on the power generation forecasting model and proven case, but when forecasting is based on IDW, it is up to 1.4 times more accurate than when using ASOS data. Therefore, if measured data at the target location are not available, it was confirmed that it is more advantageous to use data predicted by IDW as substitute data than public data such as ASOS. Full article

With the development of predictive management strategies for power distribution grids, reliable information on the expected photovoltaic power generation, which can be derived from forecasts of global horizontal irradiance (GHI), is needed. In recent years, machine learning techniques for GHI forecasting have proved to be superior to classical approaches. This work addresses the topic of multi-horizon forecasting of GHI using Gaussian process regression (GPR) and proposes an in-depth study on some open questions: should time or past GHI observations be chosen as input? What are the appropriate kernels in each case? Should the model be multi-horizon or horizon-specific? A comparison between time-based GPR models and observation-based GPR models is first made, along with a discussion on the best kernel to be chosen; a comparison between horizon-specific GPR models and multi-horizon GPR models is then conducted. The forecasting results obtained are also compared to those of the scaled persistence model. Four performance criteria and five forecast horizons (10 min, 1 h, 3 h, 5 h, and 24 h) are considered to thoroughly assess the forecasting results. It is observed that, when seeking multi-horizon models, using a quasiperiodic kernel and time as input is favored, while the best horizon-specific model uses an automatic relevance determination rational quadratic kernel and past GHI observations as input. Ultimately, the choice depends on the complexity and computational constraints of the application at hand. Full article